MLB Bets 2026-08-01

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	762W–375L–0P	67%	-37.95 u	Last 14 days • 1137 settled
Grade A	28W–28L–0P	50%	-6.09 u
Grade B	734W–347L–0P	68%	-31.86 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2844W–1843L–8P	61%	-157.42 u	All-time • 4695 settled
Grade A	240W–181L–0P	57%	-0.80 u
Grade B	2604W–1662L–8P	61%	-156.62 u

77 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lowe	1.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-111	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	Chase DeLauter	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Kurtz	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-392	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Cam Smith	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Dominic Smith	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-443	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	F5 Total	Under	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Robert Gasser	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristopher Sanchez	2.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	David Peterson	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Luinder Avila	3.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	2.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Ronel Blanco	2.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cristopher Sanchez	5.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cristopher Sánchez	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jack Perkins	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Luinder Avila	5.5	101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Parker Messick	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Run Line	Minnesota Twins	+1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-31	K Prop	Carson Whisenhunt	3.5	-158	-	LOSS	-1.000	Carson Whisenhunt: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-148	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nathan Eovaldi: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Shane Drohan	5.5	-130	-	WIN	+0.769	Shane Drohan: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-158	-	WIN	+0.633	Brandon Young: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Dylan Cease: 7.0 (line 7.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	491	56%	-11.38u	69	46%	-12.34u	231	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	433	57%	+4.95u	62	47%	-11.51u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	154	56%	-0.07u	16	69%	+3.02u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1287	74%	-7.16u	660	77%	+1.90u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	465	57%	-16.65u	110	48%	-20.27u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	345	61%	-7.44u	86	63%	+1.73u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	113	48%	-11.69u	10	70%	+1.86u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	19	58%	+0.15u	18	61%	+1.15u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	544	52%	-50.48u	60	63%	+6.21u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 491, 14d N 69	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 433, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 154, 14d N 16	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 32 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 274 total candidate(s); season N 33, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 113, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 19, 14d N 18	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 6 actionable / 211 total candidate(s); season N 544, 14d N 60	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 211 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 767 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 745 pitcher(s), 3297 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1256 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Athletics, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	First-inning artifact: missing — no promoted or last-known-good artifact \| current-slate feature handoff missing
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 329 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/13 game(s); Hits Allowed 25 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 5 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 24 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 88, fanatics 13, bovada_direct 6
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2998 market side(s) checked \| 2998 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 211 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 609 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 265 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+108	-130	+1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+137	-166	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+157	-191	+1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	-125	+104	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-174)	O/U 6.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+146)	+1.5 (-177)	O/U 11.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-125	+104	-1.5 (+134)	+1.5 (-162)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-137	+114	-1.5 (+113)	+1.5 (-136)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 46 Grade B | 1075 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (26 play(s))

K Prop - Robert Gasser Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -148Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exactOwn-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Andrew Abbott Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.9

Batter Hits - Isaac Collins Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Gleyber Torres Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Junior Caminero Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nathaniel Lowe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jake Burger Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Yainer Diaz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kody Clemens Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Mike Yastrzemski Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jared Triolo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Henry Davis Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Evan Carter Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Joc Pederson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jorge Polanco Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Leo Jimenez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Joe Mack Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nico Hoerner Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cole Young Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Rhys Hoskins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis Bazzana Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jose Altuve Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (46 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (-134) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	5.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 24.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.9, proj 6.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.117
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.7%, L7 16.6%, season 20.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.117/AVG 0.455 over 14 PA, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.33K, diff 24.2%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-131) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-131	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.4% / under 46.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.0, proj 5.5K over 4.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 24.1% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.3%, L7 17.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-162) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
DK	5.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 7.9, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 18.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.5%, L7 22.7%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 (-137) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.67 over 6.4 IP (WHIP 0.92, BB% 5.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 19.5 outs/6.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 23.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luinder Avila Under 5.5 (+101) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.53, BB% 12.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.0%, L7 29.0%, season 23.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Parker Messick Under 5.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 29 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .715
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 15.2%, L7 14.8%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.7%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-133) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 4.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.4% / under 46.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sánchez Over 5.5 (-140) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 4.8%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Under 5.5 (-132) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-132	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.3%, L7 17.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/26 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Over 1.5 (-150) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.11 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 5.67)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .655
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.5%, L7 27.3%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-132) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.42 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.51, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 76 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-173) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.92 over 6.4 IP (xFIP 3.35, ERA 2.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 19.5 outs/6.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 23.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Luinder Avila Under 3.5 (-155) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+116	-155	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.0%, L7 29.0%, season 23.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 (-165) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.76 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.60, ERA 3.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-165) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Under 2.5 (-167) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.20 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.13, ERA 3.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 116 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 0.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.6%, L7 25.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.2%/116 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Over 2.5 (-113) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.62 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 6.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 50 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .209 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 27.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Under 2.5 (-112) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.49 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.0%, L7 20.1%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

▸ Batter Walks — 19 play(s) (B 19)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-400) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-200) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 7 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 57.1% | OPS 2.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 61/111 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-475) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-450) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP walk adjustment: 0.91x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 83/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-443) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-443); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-475) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 22 PA | 8/21 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .981
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-280) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-425) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/89 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 64/89 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-475) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-375) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | 2/24 | HR 2 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/107 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-350) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 4/18 | HR 3 | K% 27.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .944
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/86 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 61/86 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-270) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-270	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/107 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/107 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-270); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-392) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+267	-392	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-392); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-400) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/100 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 84/100 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-400) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-450) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .538
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-129) diff 95.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 95.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 7 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 57.1% | OPS 2.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.58

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.4 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 over 1.5 (68%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-111) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.426 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 63/107 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.50

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-114) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-132) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 10% + L5 0% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 10%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-130) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.554 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 46/93 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-120) edge 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Under 6.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetUS Under 6.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetUS	6.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.5 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.70
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.67
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-148) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-112	-108	-
Bovada Direct	5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	5	-115	-106	-
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-148	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Luis Alvarez (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Zac Thornton xFIP 4.08
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.69
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zac Thornton (LHP)
Away SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Minnesota Twins +1.5 1.5 (-155) edge 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -155

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -147 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+11.57/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 9.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -155 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -0.065u

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-157) edge 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -157

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetUS Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -150 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: +0.4 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+5.21/$100
✓ Cover prob 64.3% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 5.9% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -157 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Kohl Drake (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Progressive Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.97
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Kohl Drake small sample (9 IP) — stats 11% actual / 89% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -0.065u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1075 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 27 play(s) (B 8 | C 19)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 3.5 (-162) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-162	+126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.94K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.3% / under 41.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Luinder Avila: K/9 7.8, proj 4.4K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.0%, L7 29.0%, season 23.0%, active roster 21.8%/8 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.95
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 26.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Over 5.5 (+108) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+135	-180	-
DK	5.5	+108	-137	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+136	-174	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Max Fried: K/9 8.6, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.247 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 102 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .754
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 102 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 28.4%/102 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-153) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .179 | OPS .536
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 24.3%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 (-103) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.5, proj 7.6K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 19.5 outs/6.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 23.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.21
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kohl Drake Over 3.5 (-147) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kohl Drake: K/9 7.4, proj 4.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 30.1% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.426 | top pitch: Cutter (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Cutter: 18.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kohl Drake: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 14.9%, L7 19.3%, season 22.1% (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (-121) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.0, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 64 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .572
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 23.6%, L7 34.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 18.8%/64 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 3.5 (-171) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-171	+134	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.6% / under 40.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 7.5, proj 3.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .817
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.0%, L7 16.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-136) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-110	-
DK	6.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	6.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.5, proj 6.8K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 76 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 76 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 (-116) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-109	-119	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 30.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob deGrom: K/9 10.9, proj 8.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.1% | put-away% 24.1% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 116 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 0.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.6%, L7 25.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 30.2%/116 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.60
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (+107) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (+105) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+112	-145	-
DK	7.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+124	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 15.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.0, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 7.5 (+120) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 15.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 10.0, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-149) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walker Buehler: K/9 8.4, proj 3.8K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .224 | OPS .538
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.3%, L7 18.0%, season 20.8%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 5.5 (+119) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ronel Blanco: K/9 9.8, proj 6.1K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 33.4% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 50 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .209 | OPS .622
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 27.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-154) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.9 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-167	+127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-166	+130	-
DK	5.5	+120	-154	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.5, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 72 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .227 | OPS .687
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.7%, L7 20.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 23.6%/72 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (+130) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +130

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+124	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-167	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 59.0% / under 41.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 6.5, proj 4.2K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 42.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .655
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.5%, L7 27.3%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 12.8% vs season 18.0%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-136) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.5, proj 5.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.7%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (+101) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-128	+101	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.0% / under 47.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.8, proj 5.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS .683
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.1%, L7 22.0%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-109) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 4.2 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .853
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; L7 team K% 26.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/27 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Quinn Mathews Over 4.5 (+135) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Quinn Mathews: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .533
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 16.9%, L7 16.3%, season 19.4%, active roster 18.2%/6 hitters (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-123) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-123	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.1% / under 47.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 29.3%, L7 25.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Over 4.5 (+108) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 8.8, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .267 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.9%, L7 17.5%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.7%/7 hitters, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.6%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo López Over 4.5 (+120) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Reynaldo López: K/9 8.8, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .267 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.9%, L7 17.5%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.7%/7 hitters, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.6%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-116) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 8.1, proj 5.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.9%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (-102) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-124	-102	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.3% / under 47.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.1, proj 5.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .071 | OPS .248
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Under 4.5 (+122) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-169	+129	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-180	+135	-
DK	4.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-174	+136	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Parker Messick: K/9 7.9, proj 4.4K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 29 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .715
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 15.2%, L7 14.8%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.7%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.7 ppts (recent 16.9% vs season 24.6%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Over 5.5 (+106) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Payton Tolle: K/9 11.1, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Cutter (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Cutter: 17.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.0%, L7 20.1%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.06
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 32.7% vs season 26.5%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zach Thornton Under 17.5 (-118) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	16.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-109	-122	-
DK	17.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 14.946 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (default starter baseline); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 19.5 (-115) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 19.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 19.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 19.5 | selected line 19.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 19.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 19.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	19.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	19.5	-121	-110	-
DK	19.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.942 vs line 19.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 19.5 | selected line 19.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.7 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 23.4%, L7 24.7%, season 22.1% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.0%, L7 9.7%, season 8.1% (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 19.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.60 | Season Avg 19.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 19.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+114) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 18.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+114	-152	Raw BestVerify
DK	18.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	18.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.318 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.4%, L7 12.0%, season 10.2%, BVP 0.0%/48 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 18.5 (+115) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.318 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.4%, L7 12.0%, season 10.2%, BVP 0.0%/48 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 (+119) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	18.5	+119	-159	-
DK	18.5	+119	-159	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.081999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 76 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.6%, L7 8.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-141) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-141	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.865999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 29 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .715
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 15.2%, L7 14.8%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.7%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 (-119) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-111	-119	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 16.379 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.1%, L7 22.0%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.7%, L7 8.4%, season 8.9%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+122) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-170	+124	-
DK	17.5	-162	+122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.82 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.7%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.4%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Over 17.5 (-156) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-154	+115	-
DK	17.5	-156	+117	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.043000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 116 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 0.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.6%, L7 25.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.2%/116 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.2%, L7 9.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.9%/116 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+106) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-143	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-141	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.275 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.9%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.0%, L7 7.5%, season 7.8%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-146) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+110	-146	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.0%, L7 20.1%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 (-144) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .817
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.0%, L7 16.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (-128) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 29.3%, L7 25.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-131) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-102	-131	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+120) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.7%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (+109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-144	+109	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .179 | OPS .536
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 24.3%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-140) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 64 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 23.6%, L7 34.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 18.8%/64 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (-126) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.9%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (+129) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0659750410465203 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-130) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8310111277876597 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.0 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 11.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.9%/41 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 (-157) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7875950883303655 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .071 | OPS .248
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.5%, L7 5.9%, season 8.7%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 (-142) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3113047726334268 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 76 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.6%, L7 8.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 (-125) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4185084796587204 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.7%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.4%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-126) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.11 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.24, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS .683
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.1%, L7 22.0%, season 23.5%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-134) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.81 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 6.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .179 | OPS .536
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 24.3%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Schultz Over 2.5 (+110) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.90 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.88, ERA 6.17)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, L7 22.0%, season 23.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-138) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.68 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 23/27 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-141) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 4.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .071 | OPS .248
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-155) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.26, ERA 5.38)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 64 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 23.6%, L7 34.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 18.8%/64 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kohl Drake Over 2.5 (-110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.33 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 4.60)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Kohl Drake: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 14.9%, L7 19.3%, season 22.1% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.84)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .267 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.9%, L7 17.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 24.5%, L7 22.7%, season 25.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-151) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+113	-151	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 4.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.7%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Over 2.5 (+110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.23 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 6.88)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .224 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.3%, L7 18.0%, season 20.8%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-133) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .817
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.0%, L7 16.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (-116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.36 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 29.3%, L7 25.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-145) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-105) Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.9%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (+115) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.99 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 6.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.3%, L7 17.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 32 play(s) (C 32)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-265) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+195	-265	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.76 (AVG 0.242)
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.177 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/32 (22%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/100 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/48 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 47/52 under 1.5 (90%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Hits: 84/100 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.76

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-174) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-239) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+177	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 (-270) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-206) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Lane Thomas Under 1.5 (-238) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-241) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-242) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+179	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-250) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+184	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-220) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+163	-220	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.235)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.275 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 2/17 (12%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/49 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 45/54 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 83/103 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-238) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+176	-238	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.214)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.236 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/49 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 43/54 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 85/103 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-218) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-267) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -267 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+196	-267	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.276 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 3/16 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 79/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-246) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+182	-246	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+190	-260	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 2/19 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/49 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 77/101 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-266) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+195	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.265)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 76/104 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-250) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+170	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+184	-250	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.251)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/49 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 74/100 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-168) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/35 (17%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 78/102 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-205) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.269)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/25 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 71/101 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-224) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+167	-224	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.308 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/43 (30%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 80/107 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-178) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/45 (20%) | L5 2/22 (9%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/95 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 68/95 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-250) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+185	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 79/106 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-231) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+171	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.208 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 78/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-252) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -252 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+186	-252	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.257 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 44/56 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 80/110 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-236) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+174	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/35 (20%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 78/107 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-239) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+176	-239	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 79/110 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-236) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.292)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-260) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.273)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.281 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/43 (23%) | L5 6/24 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 53/75 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 24/37 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 53/75 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-238) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.427 (28 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 72/105 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-222) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.355 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/39 (31%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/87 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/45 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 60/87 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-225) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.292)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 73/104 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-221) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -221

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+164	-221	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.31 (AVG 0.328)
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .538
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 63/104 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-213) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+158	-213	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.322)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/40 (20%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 64/107 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 225 play(s) (C 225)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-115) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/49 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 47/103 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-340) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/95 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 78/95 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-265) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-309) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+216	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-350) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 78/105 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-400) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-275) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 74/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/109 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-375) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/103 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/103 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-240) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-339) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-339	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 83/108 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-280) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/101 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 76/101 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-245) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 78/105 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-347) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/49 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-375) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/109 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 86/109 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-442) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -442

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -442 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-442	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-270) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 64/90 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-215) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 70/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+140) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 18/52 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-310) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 79/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-340) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-350) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/109 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/109 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-300) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-310) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-309) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+215	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/100 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-210) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/100 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-366) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-366	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-226) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-534) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -534 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -534

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -534 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-535) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -535 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -535

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -535 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-265) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-255) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-276) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 70/103 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-150) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-280) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-195) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-310) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-320) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-475) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-550) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-115) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 23/48 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 40/99 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 70/107 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-155) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-210) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-215) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-525) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-245) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-210) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/85 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 27/40 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 58/85 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/105 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-284) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-284	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 72/104 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-450) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-240) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-320) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 27 PA | 6/27 | HR 1 | K% 40.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .593
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 66/110 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-419) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-245) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-150) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-375) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-185) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-180) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-140) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-167) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+121	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rob Refsnyder Under 0.5 (-248) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+176	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-266) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-284) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+200	-284	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-378) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-404) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-375) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-320) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-280) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-174) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+125	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-222) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-224) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-232) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-321) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-341) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-457) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-463) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -500 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+332	-500	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-550) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-375) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-500) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-165) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-255) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-320) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-284) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -284 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/92 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 69/92 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-270) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 61/102 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-525) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-320) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-155) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-450) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-215) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+135) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/107 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/55 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 41/107 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-153) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+111	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-214) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-262) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-287) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-344) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+238	-344	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+272	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-443) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Barrosa Under 0.5 (-486) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -486 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -486

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -486 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (-125) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 49/106 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-321) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 67/99 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+110) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 61/99 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-330) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 67/107 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+120) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 50/111 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-270) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-165) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-475) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-155) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jhostynxon Garcia Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-270) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 73/107 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-289) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+202	-289	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/86 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 56/86 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-525) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-130) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-210) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-270) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-155) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-525) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-500) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 54/87 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+110) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/91 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Walks: 50/91 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-221) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 27/50 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 66/105 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-115) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 55/104 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-215) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 18 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .600
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/102 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-210) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 78/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-321) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 29/50 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-375) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-350) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 68/107 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-270) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-350) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-170) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-310) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-245) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-500) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-225) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-425) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-221) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 69/103 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-300) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/97 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 71/97 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-150) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/103 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+140) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 62/109 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+125) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 52/110 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-230) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 54/90 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-265) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 55/75 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 31/37 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 55/75 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-300) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 62/108 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-526) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -526 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -526

Selected market: Over 21.0% / Under 79.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -526 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 62/108 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+185) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 52/109 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-210) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/93 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/93 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-310) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 61/103 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-165) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/93 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/93 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+145) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 32/80 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/39 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 32/80 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-256) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 62/106 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-221) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-221	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/93 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 58/93 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-215) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 69/104 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-210) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 71/109 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-215) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 71/109 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/109 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-125) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/109 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+145) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 21 PA | 7/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.064
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 46/107 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+110) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 19/47 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 37/98 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-195) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/79 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 22/33 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 50/79 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-255) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/103 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-215) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/81 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/40 under 0.5 (45%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 23/41 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 41/81 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+170) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/105 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/60 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 37/105 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-310) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+105) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/109 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 23/52 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 47/109 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+121) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/55 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 48/106 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-215) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 7/11 | HR 2 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.909
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/51 under 0.5 (45%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 54/106 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 (+140) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/53 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 39/107 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-170) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 70/110 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-240) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/98 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/46 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 61/98 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+188) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +188 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +188

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/49 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 41/102 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-165) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/100 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 64/100 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-255) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 60/106 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-215) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 70/101 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-185) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 (+130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 36/105 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 16/51 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 36/105 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (+260) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 36/105 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 16/51 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 36/105 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 25.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-265) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/110 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-210) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/38 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 54/90 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+190) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 40/107 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (+200) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 34/102 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 16/47 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 34/102 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (+220) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 34/102 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 16/47 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 34/102 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+185) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 48/100 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-225) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+165) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/50 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 38/104 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 205 play(s) (C 205)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 over 1.5 (68%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-101) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.447, xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.78 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.44

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+104) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.37

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+110) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.37

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-157) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 63/110 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-127) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -127; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.471 (58 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-119) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.424 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-158) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 69/107 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 69/107 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-149) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.379 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/80 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/39 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 38/80 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-121) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.297 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 35/51 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-155) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+128) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.427, xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/105 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/54 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/105 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+102) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 51/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+105) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-120) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.426 (20 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-141) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-141	+107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.549, xSLG 0.886 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/100 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 58/100 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-112) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-143) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .538
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 58/104 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-133) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.460 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-133) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-142) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-119) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/100 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 54/100 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-161) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-110) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.204 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-143) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.491 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-133) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.493, xSLG 0.669 (25 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-114) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 53/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.329 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-109) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.521 (40 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 27 PA | 6/27 | HR 1 | K% 40.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/110 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 60/110 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-123) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.506 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 2.5 (-155) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Under 2.5 (-131) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Under 2.5 (-157) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-116) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-114) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.461, xSLG 0.652 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/107 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 59/107 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-109) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 2.5 (-146) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+101) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.452, xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-104) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.452, xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-115) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/90 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+113) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/90 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-115) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-155) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.375 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-159) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.310 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/109 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 61/109 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-143) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/93 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/45 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/93 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-139) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/100 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+124) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/100 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-129) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+112) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-148) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-112) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.359 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/86 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 39/86 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+105) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.657 (20 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/81 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 39/81 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+120) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-113) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-150) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+100) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/105 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 59/105 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-102) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-125) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.252 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+103) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+117) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 2.5 (-146) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.82 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 43/54 under 2.5 (80%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 75/103 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+108) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-102) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-149) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 56/107 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-122) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.203 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-115) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+135) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 53/93 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-118) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.214 (15 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-129) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.201 (10 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+115) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+127) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/90 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 40/90 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-115) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 42/79 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/46 over 1.5 (61%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 42/79 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-125) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-107) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.394 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 2.5 (-117) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.99 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.467 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 39/51 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 75/102 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 2.5 (-136) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.01 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.366 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 under 2.5 (63%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 38/54 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 69/103 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Under 2.5 (-162) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 31/51 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 70/106 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+106) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/89 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 46/89 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+125) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+131) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-114) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 22 PA | 8/21 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .981
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+122) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.392 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | 2/24 | HR 2 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Under 2.5 (-167) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/107 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/53 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 39/54 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 72/107 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-113) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.281 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-137) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/103 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 45/103 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+101) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.372 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+122) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.378 (63 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+137) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/106 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 57/106 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (-123) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+108) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.505 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+132) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 21 PA | 7/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.064
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-102) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+123) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.105, xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+107) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+119) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.197 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 4/18 | HR 3 | K% 27.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/86 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/42 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 42/86 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Under 2.5 (-143) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.19 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/95 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 35/49 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/95 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+123) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.336 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-164) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.387 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 65/109 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-115) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.387 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 65/109 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-125) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/105 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 44/105 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-142) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.24 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 65/101 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-155) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.196, xSLG 0.167 (19 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 67/103 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Under 2.5 (-137) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.27 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 62/101 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Under 2.5 (-164) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.427, xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 under 2.5 (50%), avg 2.74 | Away Batter HRR: 35/51 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+105) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+135) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-141) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-107) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+119) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-127) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 68/101 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 2.5 (+118) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+107	-143	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.66 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/87 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 17/42 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 38/87 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Over 1.5 (-153) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.177, xSLG 0.212 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 15/52 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-122) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+111) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+137) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+119) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.460 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/92 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/47 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 32/92 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-127) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Davis Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-137) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.149 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 59/104 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-131) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-127) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-183) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.220, xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 60/102 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-159) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-154) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-153) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (-120) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Velazquez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-156) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-138) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-138) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-126) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-125) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-108) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alika Williams Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Under 2.5 (-148) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+108	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 66/104 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-113) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-140) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-131) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-115) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremiah Jackson Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-111) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+126) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Koss Over 1.5 (+138) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-113) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-150) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Under 1.5 (-173) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-108) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (+107) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-118) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Under 1.5 (-130) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-139) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.197, xSLG 0.254 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.134, xSLG 0.159 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/87 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/87 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-134) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 61/97 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 274 play(s) (C 267 | D 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 395.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 395.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/54 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.70 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 76/109 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 396% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (-190) diff 358.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 358.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/45 over 0.5 (73%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.13

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 359% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-179) diff 322.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 322.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 34/47 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 69/102 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.96

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 322% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 287.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 287.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 81/107 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.93

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 287% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-165) diff 269.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 269.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 64/105 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.57

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 270% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 258.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 258.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/54 over 0.5 (78%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/105 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-130) diff 258.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 258.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/54 over 0.5 (78%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/105 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 251.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/45 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 30/45 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 64/90 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.02

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-180) diff 250.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 65/101 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.52

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-155) diff 249.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 249.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/96 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 58/96 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.79

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 232.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/99 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 30/48 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 59/99 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.69

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-165) diff 228.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-180) diff 228.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-150) diff 228.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-180) diff 227.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 72/105 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.83

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-160) diff 224.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/105 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 63/105 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 225% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 223.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-160) diff 223.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 0.5 (-200) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-160) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 0.5 (-190) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (+110) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 (+100) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 219.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 59/103 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.71

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-165) diff 219.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 59/103 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.71

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Trevino Over 0.5 (-143) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-115) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Williamson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Vilade Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-115) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lucas Spence Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Velazquez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-160) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-180) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/102 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 67/102 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.88

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.50

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yohel Pozo Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-155) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-175) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rob Refsnyder Over 0.5 (-120) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (+105) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-110) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-105) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (-110) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.392 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | 2/24 | HR 2 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 65/107 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Fry Over 0.5 (-143) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-140) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-140) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Urias Over 0.5 (-150) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-160) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-135) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-110) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-140) diff 198.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.264 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 18 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 63/102 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-165) diff 195.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.513 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 53/98 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-150) diff 191.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/93 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/45 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 61/93 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 192% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-110) diff 188.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 7/11 | HR 2 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.909
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/51 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/106 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-155) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.119 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 65/106 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 0.5 (-180) diff 176.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.373 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/90 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/49 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 28/41 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 64/90 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Soler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 174.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.584 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/85 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/45 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 55/85 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 174.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-160) diff 166.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/90 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 44/90 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-190) diff 165.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 71/104 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 164.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.460 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/92 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 47/92 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 164.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 21 PA | 7/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.064
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 71/107 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-155) diff 160.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 37/53 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-160) diff 156.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 75/106 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-185) diff 155.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/97 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/50 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 55/97 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 146.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 65/104 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 141.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 56/102 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 141.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 140.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.505 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-165) diff 138.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-150) diff 137.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 (-220) diff 128.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-220	+170	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 128.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 74/108 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 128.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 128.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 126.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-165) diff 122.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 55/102 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-165) diff 120.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.167 (19 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 52/103 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 120.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 119.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/105 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-160) diff 118.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 37/48 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 67/103 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-175) diff 104.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.159 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 64/102 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-180) diff 102.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.149 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 57/104 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 102.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+161) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+120) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 7 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 57.1% | OPS 2.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+138) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+118) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (58 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+120) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-114) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 42/101 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+119) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.554 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/93 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 42/93 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-109) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/87 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/87 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+138) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-112) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-106) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+101) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.460 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+114) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/99 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-127) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/101 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter TB: 43/101 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+110) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 28/75 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 28/75 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-101) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.886 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-202) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+160	-218	-
DK	1.5	+150	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-195) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+145	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+130) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/103 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 46/103 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-186) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-180) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 74/101 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 45/110 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-104) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.379 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/80 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/39 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/80 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-145) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-145	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/102 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-102) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+122) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.424 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+129) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/86 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 32/86 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+130) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/96 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 13/47 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 34/96 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+103) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .538
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-149) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.212 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 70/100 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-123) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/95 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 42/95 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+124) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.652 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.426 (20 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+150) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+110) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.639 (34 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-171) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+140) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.657 (20 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/81 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/81 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Under 1.5 (-200) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 66/97 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-103) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 40/107 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+135) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-180) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/89 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 54/89 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+127) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.521 (40 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 27 PA | 6/27 | HR 1 | K% 40.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/110 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/110 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+143) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/108 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 38/108 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+136) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-213) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
Caesars	1.5	+153	-209	Recommended
DK	1.5	+158	-213	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.394 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+116) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-102) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 17/53 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 39/107 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+132) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+146) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+150	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-146) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 66/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-121) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+100) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.642 (38 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/91 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/46 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 34/91 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+135) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/107 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/107 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+126) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/100 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 37/100 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+190) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/100 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 37/100 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-171) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 22 PA | 8/21 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .981
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-169) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 68/103 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-119) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+150) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+136) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+129) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-163) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.214 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-180) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 64/104 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-188) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-127) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.506 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 44/110 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+131) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+151) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 1.5 (+174) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/48 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+137) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.297 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marco Gonzales Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.297 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.669 (25 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/103 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 35/103 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-134) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (-105) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-101) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+102) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (+139) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 41/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+107) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+111) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+159) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +159

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+159	-214	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-180) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.203 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-174) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 66/107 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 33/79 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.491 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/110 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/110 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/111 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/54 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 39/111 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+149) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.384 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/101 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 43/101 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-157) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/93 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/45 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 55/93 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.310 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.204 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 61/99 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+120) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.505 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/109 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 37/109 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-150) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.201 (10 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-181) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.252 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-174) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.372 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+134) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+141) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-120) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-165) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-165) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Barrosa Over 0.5 (-110) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (-115) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-180) diff 177.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.197 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 4/18 | HR 3 | K% 27.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/42 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 27/44 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/86 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-150) diff 168.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 168.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 69/104 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 168.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.475 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.050, SP_z=-1.03)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.471)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
David Peterson pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.341, HH% 42.0, mix SI/FF, n=1554)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.246, HH% 31.0, mix FC/SI, n=1040)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.01x
Chicago Cubs bullpen HR 1.04x (vulnerability 1.23, expected pen 4.1 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.9% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.6%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.05 Temp: 70 F Wind-out: -12.8 mph-eq
Home SP (David Peterson): 0.0247 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0034 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chicago Cubs Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.475 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.050, SP_z=-1.03)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.471)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
David Peterson pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.341, HH% 42.0, mix SI/FF, n=1554)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.246, HH% 31.0, mix FC/SI, n=1040)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.01x
Chicago Cubs bullpen HR 1.04x (vulnerability 1.23, expected pen 4.1 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.9% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.6%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.05 Temp: 70 F Wind-out: -12.8 mph-eq
Home SP (David Peterson): 0.0247 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0034 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chicago Cubs Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 6.5 6.5 (-102) edge 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -102

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5

Line distribution: 6.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-102	-	-
BetOnline	6.5	-103	-	-
BetRivers	6.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	6.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-	-
DK	6.5	-102	-	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-	RecommendedRaw Best
LowVig	6.5	+100	-	-
MyBookie	6.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 35% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (+100) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Under 10.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Under 10.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	10.5	-	+100	-
BetOnline	10.5	-	+100	-
BetRivers	10.5	-	-108	-
BetUS	10.5	-	+100	-
Bovada Direct	10.5	-	-110	-
DK	10.5	-	+100	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	-104	-
LowVig	10.5	-	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	10.5	-	-106	-
theScore Bet	10.5	-	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-105) edge 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 8 -116 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 9 books | 8 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 8 -116 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8.5 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
MyBookie	8	-116	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-105	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-106	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-102	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	8.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.26)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (+100) edge 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+104	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	3.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
David Peterson xFIP 4.35
Max Fried xFIP 3.78
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.5% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 21% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-104) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Under 6 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetUS Under 6 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-104	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetUS	6	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.25
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.31
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.9% (2 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+145) edge 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +150 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +145

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +150 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Reynaldo López xFIP 4.40
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 121 blended 50% (team 108)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Reynaldo López (RHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 265 play(s) (C 265)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0098
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.215 (40 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/102 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 101/102 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0098
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.394 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/102 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 101/102 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.291 (22 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/102 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 102/102 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Barrosa Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0309
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/97 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 94/97 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rob Refsnyder Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yohel Pozo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremiah Jackson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.8% / Under 80.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0392
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.159 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/102 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 98/102 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0388
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/103 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 99/103 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0385
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .538
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/104 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/104 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0463
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/108 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 103/108 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.203 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0642
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0577
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/104 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 98/104 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.297 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0600
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/100 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 94/100 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.373 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 84/90 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/90 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0600
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.212 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/100 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 94/100 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.310 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0722
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 99/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.149 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.505 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0899
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.513 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/98 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/98 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0980
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-750) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0943
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 21 PA | 7/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.064
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/109 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/109 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.491 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0990
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.384 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.252 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1143
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0943
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (28 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/95 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/95 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-500) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0962
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.460 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1101
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 22 PA | 8/21 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .981
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1183
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/93 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 83/93 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 18.0% / Under 82.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.167 (19 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1222
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/90 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 80/90 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1395
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.197 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 4/18 | HR 3 | K% 27.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/86 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 75/86 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/111 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/111 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.669 (25 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.652 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.281 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.372 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.426 (20 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/109 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/109 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.214 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1188
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/101 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 90/101 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.119 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/106 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/106 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.460 (18 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/92 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 80/92 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.204 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1412
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.584 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 73/85 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 73/85 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-650) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.505 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.424 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-450) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.506 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1183
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.554 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/93 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/93 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1495
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1519
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/79 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 67/79 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.379 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 71/80 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 71/80 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1524
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 7/11 | HR 2 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.909
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/93 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 75/93 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/100 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/100 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-500) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.264 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 18 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1735
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1636
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1714
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/105 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 88/105 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/90 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 73/90 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/90 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 73/90 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1733
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.386 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 64/75 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 32/37 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 64/75 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-400) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1835
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/109 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/109 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1776
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.639 (34 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/107 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/107 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1771
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/96 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/96 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.392 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | 2/24 | HR 2 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/107 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/107 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/110 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/110 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2182
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1919
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1860
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/86 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 73/86 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-450) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2110
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1979
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/96 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 79/96 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.201 (10 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/107 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 86/107 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2130
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2130
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/108 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/108 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1978
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.642 (38 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/91 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 74/91 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2091
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.521 (40 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 27 PA | 6/27 | HR 1 | K% 40.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/110 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/110 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-650) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-285) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2308
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.886 (39 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Payton Tolle contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/100 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2037
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2243
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2427
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 79/103 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2427
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 79/103 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-500) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2277
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2346
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.657 (20 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/81 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/40 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 63/81 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-600) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-600) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2121
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-450) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2752
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/109 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/109 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (58 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2299
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/87 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 68/87 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2617
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2636
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 84/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-600) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2703
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 7 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 57.1% | OPS 2.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/111 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 82/111 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3069
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 77/101 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2952
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 46/60 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 75/105 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-275) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3173
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3211
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3211
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 79/109 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	Total	Over 6.5	DK	-102	48.3%	83.7%	+35.4%	$+65.69	9	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Total	Under 10.5	DK	+100	47.8%	66.4%	+18.6%	$+32.84	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-105	48.9%	64.0%	+15.1%	$+25.05	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 6.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +35.4%

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range

C Under 10.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (Total) +18.6%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (Total) +15.1%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.26)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	+100	46.9%	68.0%	+21.1%	$+36.01	3	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-104	47.9%	63.0%	+15.2%	$+23.61	2	Bet on DK
B	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	66.1%	+14.9%	$+21.26	2	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+145	38.5%	47.9%	+9.4%	$+17.30	5	Bet on DK
B	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5)	4:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-148	56.1%	64.2%	+8.1%	$+7.61	3	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C Over 3.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +21.1%

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
David Peterson xFIP 4.35
Max Fried xFIP 3.78
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +15.2%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.25
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.31
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)

B Under 6.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +14.9%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.5 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.70
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.67
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 ML) +9.4%

[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Reynaldo López xFIP 4.40
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 121 blended 50% (team 108)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Reynaldo López (RHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 Total) +8.1%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Luis Alvarez (New York Mets) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Zac Thornton xFIP 4.08
Tyler Phillips xFIP 4.69
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zac Thornton (LHP)
Away SP: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

3:08 PM · decision fi-2ccee3c6c4b3061b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Quinn Mathews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kevin Gausman · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

4:11 PM · decision fi-b19c9a1b56a9e76e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jordan Hicks · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Drew Rasmussen · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

4:11 PM · decision fi-d2027c3a667e9563

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Phillips · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-3378619d56e5972a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Connor Prielipp · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Gilbert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

6:41 PM · decision fi-32f91c445b1bf8f0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Braxton Ashcraft · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Abbott · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+102	53.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

7:06 PM · decision fi-0b0daa356d9f42dd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

7:11 PM · decision fi-b50e5b8ca10880f8

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jacob deGrom · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ronel Blanco · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

7:16 PM · decision fi-c78c9a3ed3be2e02

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kohl Drake · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Parker Messick · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-75c5e524c2f20843

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Miles Mikolas · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Reynaldo López · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+119	-159	42.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+123	-162	42.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+122	-156	42.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+120	-150	43.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

7:16 PM · decision fi-31fd5220c61caa7e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Max Fried · official_announced · matched

Home starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-175	+131	59.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies

8:10 PM · decision fi-e69a77fa2f9ede3f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Luinder Avila · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+124	-160	42.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+120	-150	43.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

8:41 PM · decision fi-dd8ffb9ab33aaa33

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

9:11 PM · decision fi-447bbdedd122421f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Payton Tolle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:39 PM · decision fi-26f5da3b55bfea0a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Home starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-2c452686d577bfc0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Framber Valdez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T09:14:26.452674Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 265 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=265
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	39.8%	23.1%	+16.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	38.2%	21.7%	+16.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	38.0%	20.8%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Reynaldo López (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.8%	18.4%	+18.4%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-	Jacob deGrom (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	36.8%	28.0%	+8.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	-	David Peterson (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	36.5%	16.7%	+19.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	36.2%	24.3%	+11.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+380	-	35.7%	19.1%	+16.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-	Ronel Blanco (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	35.4%	20.8%	+14.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.6%	20.8%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Reynaldo López (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.8%	21.7%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	-	Luinder Avila (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	32.7%	28.9%	+3.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.6%	23.1%	+9.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Braxton Ashcraft (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.6%	19.9%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	-	Tyler Mahle (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	32.0%	20.8%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Cristopher Sánchez (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	31.9%	19.9%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Framber Valdez (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	31.1%	21.7%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	-	Walker Buehler (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.6%	21.6%	+9.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-	Quinn Mathews (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	29.8%	20.8%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jo Adell	Los Angeles Angels	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	29.7%	20.8%	+8.9%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	100	92.8%	-1285	Yordan Alvarez, Jake Burger, Christian Walker, Elias Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	89.1%	-817	Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, CJ Abrams, Michael Harris II	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	100	89.1%	-814	Jac Caglianone, Hunter Goodman, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	100	87.5%	-698	Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, JJ Bleday, Ryan O'Hearn	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	86.2%	-622	Jo Adell, Mike Trout, Brice Turang, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	100	84.8%	-558	Ildemaro Vargas, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	84.6%	-548	Dillon Dingler, Nick Kurtz, Spencer Torkelson, Tyler Soderstrom	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	100	84.4%	-542	Eddy Alvarez, Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez, Francisco Lindor	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	100	84.2%	-531	Kazuma Okamoto, Jordan Walker, Jimmy Crooks, George Springer	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	100	84.1%	-530	Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	100	83.9%	-519	Julio Rodriguez, Kody Clemens, Dominic Canzone, Ryan Jeffers	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	100	83.7%	-514	Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryan De La Cruz	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	100	83.4%	-504	Shohei Ohtani, Willson Contreras, Andy Pages, Wilyer Abreu	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	99	80.1%	-402	Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Junior Caminero	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Pass	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	88	77.1%	-337	Ben Rice, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Amed Rosario	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 18 mph E -- crosswind, minor effect \| Precip chance 64% -- delay/postponement risk	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.9%, P(U1.5) 56.6%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+300) HR chance 39.8% | edge +16.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.264, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.266, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 14.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.503
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 26/110 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0524, xFIP 4.75, K% 12.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.21, whiff 15.1%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.941, K% 5.9% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.898, ISO 0.289 (273 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (+320) HR chance 38.2% | edge +16.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.817, ISO 0.237, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.455
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 20/102 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0338, xFIP 4.77, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.74, whiff 22.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.133, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.030, OPS 0.608, ISO 0.132 (134 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+340) HR chance 38.0% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.230, OPS 0.839, ISO 0.198, TB/G 1.84
Statcast: barrel 15.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.524
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/87 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0524, xFIP 4.75, K% 12.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.21, whiff 15.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.219 (230 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.578, xwOBA 0.355 (31 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+400) HR chance 36.8% | edge +18.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.262, OPS 0.930, ISO 0.273, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 11.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.466
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 26/107 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.905, K% 44.4% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 0.984, ISO 0.295 (317 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.426, xwOBA 0.331 (76 PA)
Park HR factor 1.03

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Strong HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (+230) HR chance 36.8% | edge +8.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.321, OPS 1.077, ISO 0.317, TB/G 2.32
Statcast: barrel 18.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.6/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.714
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/109 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0338, xFIP 3.13, K% 29.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.292, xERA 3.54, whiff 34.1%
BvP vs SP: 3 HR, OPS 1.727, K% 18.2% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 1.133, ISO 0.337 (351 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+450) HR chance 36.5% | edge +19.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.295, OPS 0.927, ISO 0.300, TB/G 2.13
Statcast: barrel 15.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.2/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.527
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/105 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0247, xFIP 4.35, K% 18.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.14, whiff 21.0%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.805, ISO 0.233 (160 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.406, xwOBA 0.324 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (+280) HR chance 36.2% | edge +11.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.167, OPS 0.760, ISO 0.199, TB/G 1.60
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.9/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.491
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 14/102 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0497, xFIP 4.77, K% 17.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.86, whiff 25.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.043, OPS 0.800, ISO 0.211 (279 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.467, xwOBA 0.338 (55 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Bryan Reynolds — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (+380) HR chance 35.7% | edge +16.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.135, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.185, TB/G 1.66
Statcast: barrel 11.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.9/113.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.439
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 14/111 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0338, xFIP 4.77, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.74, whiff 22.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.846, K% 30.8% (13 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.039, OPS 0.867, ISO 0.206 (155 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+900	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+650	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+650	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	+1400	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Troy Johnston	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	+600	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	+900	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Chandler Simpson	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+2000	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+700	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	+750	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	David Peterson	Max Fried	1.05	22.9% MODEL SIGNAL	56.6% MODEL SIGNAL	—	—	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	Drew Rasmussen	Jordan Hicks	0.94	19.9%	52.1%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Payton Tolle	0.97	16.6%	46.3%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Shane Baz	Cristopher Sánchez	1.00	16.3%	45.9%	—	—
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Logan Gilbert	Connor Prielipp	0.92	16.1%	45.6%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	Walker Buehler	Tyler Mahle	0.85	15.9%	45.1%	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Kevin Gausman	Quinn Mathews	0.96	15.8%	45.0%	—	—
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	Zac Thornton	Tyler Phillips	0.93	15.6%	44.6%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jack Perkins	Framber Valdez	1.00	15.4%	44.3%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	Parker Messick	Kohl Drake	0.95	15.2%	43.8%	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano	Robert Gasser	0.98	13.8%	41.2%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Andrew Abbott	Braxton Ashcraft	1.15	12.5%	38.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	Ryan Feltner	Luinder Avila	1.20	10.9%	35.1%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Reynaldo López	Miles Mikolas	1.03	10.9%	35.1%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Ronel Blanco	Jacob deGrom	1.00	7.2%	26.2%	—	—

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.9%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (56.6%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.475 (raw=2.052, park_adj=+0.050, SP_z=-1.03)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.471)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
David Peterson pitch-quality 1.01x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.341, HH% 42.0, mix SI/FF, n=1554)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.246, HH% 31.0, mix FC/SI, n=1040)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.01x
Chicago Cubs bullpen HR 1.04x (vulnerability 1.23, expected pen 4.1 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.9% P(under 1.5 HR) = 56.6%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.05 Temp: 70 F Wind-out: -12.8 mph-eq
Home SP (David Peterson): 0.0247 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0034 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Chicago Cubs Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	66.4	53.1	84.0	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.247, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	65.9	76.0	61.5	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 34.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	65.8	71.4	65.0	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.0	58.4	74.5	5	Cutter (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	61.2	54.8	70.5	4	Sweeper (46% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	59.8	59.6	62.5	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	59.8	57.6	68.5	6	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	59.7	52.7	70.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	58.8	63.3	59.5	6	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	58.8	52.7	69.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	57.5	64.1	52.0	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.5	67.7	47.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	54.6	56.9	54.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	51.3	43.5	57.5	5	Cutter (26% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	50.1	48.3	52.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	47.8	45.2	50.0	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	47.7	53.7	41.0	6	Curveball (47% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.0	44.5	47.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	45.5	42.7	48.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	44.5	49.0	39.0	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	44.4	47.8	42.5	4	Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	44.3	43.5	45.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	43.5	44.8	40.5	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	42.4	45.5	43.5	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	40.4	43.4	34.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	40.3	68.9	13.0	4	Changeup (43% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	38.7	51.0	24.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	32.1	25.9	33.5	6	Curveball (23% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	30.1	59.6	0.0	5	Cutter (50% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.426, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.3%	4.5	4.5	5.4	76	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.8%	4.3	4.7	4.8	72	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	22.8%	4.9	4.5	4.6	82	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.8%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	28.7%	4.5	5.6	5.4	76	short	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	L	16.2%	5.0	4.9	4.9	84	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.8%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.4%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	21.9%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.8%	4.6	4.7	4.7	77	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	L	18.5%	5.8	5.4	5.5	97	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	25.4%	4.7	5.0	5.5	79	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	R	19.8%	4.8	4.5	4.5	80	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	24.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	R	24.4%	6.8	6.6	6.7	114	deep	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	16.8%	3.6	4.5	4.3	60	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	20.7%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.5%	5.6	5.2	5.2	94	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	L	21.0%	5.8	5.9	5.8	97	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	L	23.6%	4.4	5.8	6.0	74	short	full	84.00	16.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	L	25.8%	5.6	6.3	6.2	94	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	25.8%	5.0	5.8	6.0	84	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.6%	4.3	4.8	4.7	72	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	19.7%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	R	26.5%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	R	24.1%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	29.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	24.2%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	10.4%	4.8	4.7	4.8	80	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zach Thornton	Zach Thornton Under	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	14.9	-2.5	14.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	19.5	21.9	2.4	12.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.7	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 clears, but raw gap +2.44 <= 3 min
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	18.5	20.3	1.8	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	18.5	20.3	1.8	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.9	1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Under	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Over	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	17.5	18.0	0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

211 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.83	1.55	0.64	0.64	2.76 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.78	1.04	1.00	0.74	2.94 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.70	1.09	0.72	0.88	2.63 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yordan Alvarez	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.58	1.16	0.68	0.74	2.76 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Garcia Jr.	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.57	1.37	0.60	0.60	2.44 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Nathaniel Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.53	1.42	0.56	0.56	2.53 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Matt Olson	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.50	1.05	0.76	0.69	2.49 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Kurtz	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.46	0.91	0.72	0.83	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.44	1.30	0.64	0.49	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.42	1.08	0.62	0.73	2.60 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.41	1.03	0.66	0.72	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.39	1.05	0.70	0.64	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nicky Lopez	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.38	1.33	0.52	0.52	2.38 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jose Ramirez	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.36	1.32	0.52	0.52	2.36 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.31	1.09	0.69	0.53	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.29	1.28	0.50	0.50	2.29 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.29	1.22	0.58	0.48	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mauricio Dubon	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.28	1.22	0.53	0.53	2.17 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Shohei Ohtani	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.27	1.04	0.63	0.59	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.25	0.96	0.53	0.76	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.25	1.08	0.52	0.65	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.24	0.99	0.68	0.57	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.23	1.31	0.50	0.42	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.21	0.99	0.58	0.64	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.20	1.03	0.57	0.61	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes