MLB Bets 2026-07-31

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	695W–352L–0P	66%	-30.34 u	Last 14 days • 1047 settled
Grade A	29W–25L–0P	54%	-1.80 u
Grade B	666W–327L–0P	67%	-28.54 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2742W–1810L–8P	60%	-164.75 u	All-time • 4560 settled
Grade A	238W–178L–0P	57%	+0.80 u
Grade B	2504W–1632L–8P	61%	-165.55 u

75 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Chourio	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Hits	Angel Martinez	1.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Total Bases	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Carson Whisenhunt	3.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	108	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Nick Martinez	4.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	K Prop	Shane Drohan	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	2.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Zebby Matthews	2.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Leahy	5.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Wacha	6.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tomoyuki Sugano	6.5	-140	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-30	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Eury Pérez: 6.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-30	K Prop	Jake Irvin	3.5	-149	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jake Irvin: 1.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-30	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-126	-	WIN	+0.794	Noah Cameron: 7.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	484	56%	-11.57u	70	46%	-13.58u	226	58%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	428	57%	+6.55u	63	44%	-14.26u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	153	56%	-0.71u	15	67%	+2.37u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1189	74%	-4.78u	562	77%	+4.28u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	457	56%	-18.84u	111	46%	-24.94u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	340	60%	-10.06u	87	60%	-2.12u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	45	73%	+1.47u	8	50%	-2.43u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	112	47%	-12.23u	9	67%	+1.31u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	16	50%	-2.03u	15	53%	-1.03u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	539	52%	-52.22u	55	62%	+4.47u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 428, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 153, 14d N 15	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 45, 14d N 8	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 263 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 112, 14d N 9	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 16, 14d N 15	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 4 actionable / 204 total candidate(s); season N 539, 14d N 55	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 204 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 766 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 744 pitcher(s), 3289 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1264 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	First-inning artifact: missing — no promoted or last-known-good artifact \| current-slate feature handoff missing
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 327 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 27 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 27 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 25 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 91, betmgm 4, fanatics 4, fanduel 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2890 market side(s) checked \| 2890 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 204 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 609 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 148 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 241 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+130	-157	+1.5 (-161)	-1.5 (+133)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-135	+112	-1.5 (+128)	+1.5 (-155)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-172)	-1.5 (+142)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+134)	+1.5 (-162)	O/U 11.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-171	+141	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-163	+135	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:46 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+155)	+1.5 (-189)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+158	-193	+1.5 (-137)	-1.5 (+114)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

5 Grade A | 42 Grade B | 1003 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 5 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Carson Whisenhunt Over	GIA@PAD	9:46 PM	3.5	5.4	-158	FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 \| best price	54.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -130	K Prop	Shane Drohan Over	BRE@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	7.2	-130	FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 \| best price	30.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	CAR@JAY	7:08 PM	7.5	9.6	-136	BetOnline Over 7.5 -125 \| best price	28.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@AST	8:16 PM	5.5	8.0	-148	DK Over 5.5 -148 \| exact	44.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	PHI@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	5.8	-158	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	29.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (20 play(s))

Batter Hits - Angel Martinez Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

K Prop - Paul Skenes Under

Selected line 8.5 is split from majority 7.5 / avg 7.67

Batter Total Bases - Francisco Alvarez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Braden Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Elly De La Cruz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ryan O'Hearn Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jared Young Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Benintendi Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Victor Mesa Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Carlos Cortes Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jorge Polanco Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Trevor Larnach Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cal Raleigh Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Royce Lewis Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 0.5 -160Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Amed Rosario Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Anthony Volpe Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Garrett Mitchell Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - JJ Bleday Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cedric Mullins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jorge Soler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 3.5 (-158) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-158	+124	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 54.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.91K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 8.1, proj 5.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.365 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.3%, L7 19.6%, season 22.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 over 3.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (-130) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 30.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Drohan: K/9 9.1, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 24.0%, L7 22.5%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.4%/6 hitters (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/21 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -130 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-136) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-125	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	-
DK	7.5	-136	+107	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	7.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 28.1% vs 17% min; cushion +2.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 13.1, proj 9.6K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 34.8% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Changeup (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 38 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .314 | OPS .866
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters, BVP 28.9%/38 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.20 | Season Avg 8.79
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (-148) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.67 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-152	+117	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+115	-
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 44.6% vs 17% min; cushion +2.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.3, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 229 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .278 | OPS .876
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 229 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.6%, L7 25.2%, season 21.8%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 22.3%/229 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 31.9% vs season 25.6%, proj adj +3.1%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (-158) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-158	+124	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 8.0, proj 5.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 24.2%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.5%/8 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +2.5%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (42 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (+108) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +108

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 7.3, proj 2.2K over 3.9 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/4 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 15.9% | put-away% 9.2% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 15.0%, L7 20.4%, season 22.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 4.5 (-142) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+111	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.7, proj 3.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .739
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Casey Mize Under 5.5 (-131) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 32.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.71 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 0.95, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .725
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.8%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 6.5 (-140) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 24.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.93x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .083
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.1%, season 21.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-129) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.8%, L7 18.4%, season 19.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 6.5 (-145) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 5.3 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 18.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 37 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .206 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.9%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (+100) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.01, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-154) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 23.8%, L7 17.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-170) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.08 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 113 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .212 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.6%, L7 26.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.9%/113 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-171) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 3.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 24.0%, L7 22.5%, season 25.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-171) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 (-130) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.88 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.19, ERA 2.87)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 110 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .317 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 20.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 19.1%/110 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-115) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.08 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .725
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.8%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Over 1.5 (-154) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.13 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .095 | OPS .273
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.6%, L7 19.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-132) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-132	-101	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.04 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 5.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.186
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.0%, L7 23.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (-270) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-250	+187	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-270) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 21 play(s) (B 21)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-350) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 20 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .721
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-375) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bradgley Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/99 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 83/99 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-525) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-575) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/95 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 74/95 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-575); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-269) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-269	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-269); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-340) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-425) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/88 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 31/42 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 63/88 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-475) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 60 PA | 18/57 | HR 7 | K% 11.7% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.069
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 60 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/85 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/41 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 60/85 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-450) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-575) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/105 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-575); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-400) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 85/110 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-350) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 85/110 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-375) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/106 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-340) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-340); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-525) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 75/101 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-320) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bradgley Rodriguez: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/103 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 82/103 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-138) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Base projection 2.59 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.442, xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.59

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-164) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.537 (40 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/74 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 23/36 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 43/74 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -164 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-118) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.438 (73 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | 7/21 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .798
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 62/106 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-161) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.405 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 61/102 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0, heavy juice -161 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Batter Total Bases — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-109	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-128) edge 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-118	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-128	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Hunter Greene xFIP 3.91
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.09
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Greene (RHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1003 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 3 | C 17)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-152) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.67 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-152	+119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.9% / under 43.1%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Foster Griffin: K/9 7.7, proj 5.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .719
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Hunter Brown Over 5.5 (-157) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.79 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.33
Hunter Brown: K/9 8.5, proj 6.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 113 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .212 | OPS .675
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 113 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.6%, L7 26.5%, season 22.7%, active roster 20.5%/6 hitters, BVP 23.9%/113 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.56 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: K L10: 4/9 over 5.5
K% trend: headwind -6.5 ppts (recent 18.5% vs season 25.0%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-137) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.0, proj 4.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.186
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.0%, L7 23.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (+106) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 8.8, proj 5.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .725
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 22.8%, L7 24.2%, season 22.8%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-139) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.6, proj 3.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .794
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 17.3%, L7 23.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.24
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Under 4.5 (+100) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	4.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 7/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Warren: K/9 8.3, proj 3.9K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 26 PA | K% 3.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .273 | OPS .762
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.7%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 16.0% vs season 22.7%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Under 4.5 (-162) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 7.8, proj 3.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 23.8%, L7 17.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.09
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (-102) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-102	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.7% / under 52.3%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.4, proj 5.0K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 37 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .206 | OPS .564
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.9%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9%, active roster 21.8%/8 hitters, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (-140) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.3, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Cutter (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Cutter: 17.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .544
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5
K% trend: headwind -6.2 ppts (recent 12.8% vs season 19.0%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 99 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-142) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	4.5	-164	+128	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+115	-149	-
DK	5.5	+111	-142	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 5.0K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 70 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .270 | OPS .867
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 70 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 17.1%, L7 22.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 22.9%/70 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 (-138) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+109	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.2% / under 54.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 7.0, proj 4.1K over 4.6 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .738
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 25.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (-136) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+108	-
BetRivers	5.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.2, proj 5.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 20.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .282 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.4%, L7 28.7%, season 24.4%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-121) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-105	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.4, proj 3.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.7% | put-away% 12.0% | xwOBA 0.401 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .083
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.1%, season 21.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Greene Under 7.5 (-149) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+120	-160	-
DK	7.5	+116	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	+122	-156	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 4.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.6% / under 56.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Greene: K/9 10.4, proj 7.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/4 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 62 PA | K% 27.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .583
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.9%, L7 20.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 27.4%/62 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.25 | Season Avg 7.25
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 7.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Under 4.5 (-166) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+139	-182	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+129	-166	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.4, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.8%, L7 18.4%, season 19.5%, active roster 18.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.40
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5
K% trend: support +7.3 ppts (recent 27.7% vs season 20.4%, proj adj +3.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (+123) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Janson Junk: K/9 7.3, proj 3.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.4% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.5%, active roster 20.5%/6 hitters, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-102) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 9.2, proj 5.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.254 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .095 | OPS .273
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.6%, L7 19.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (+116) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+116	-149	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.6% / under 56.4%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 8.2, proj 4.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 99 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .283 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 99 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.9%, L7 17.8%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.6%/7 hitters, BVP 12.1%/99 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-129) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.6, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 110 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .317 | OPS .909
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 20.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 19.1%/110 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.72
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
K% trend: support +5.1 ppts (recent 31.4% vs season 26.3%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Paul Skenes Under 8.5 (-152) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 8.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 8.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 7.67 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 8.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	7.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	7.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-140	+105	-
DK	8.5	+119	-152	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.5K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 11.3, proj 8.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.262 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 95 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .209 | OPS .541
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 23.7%, L7 34.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 34.7%/95 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 8.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.77
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 8.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 18.5 (+120) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 18.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 18.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	18.5	+122	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.717 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 38 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .314 | OPS .866
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 20.3%, BVP 28.9%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.3%, L7 8.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-180) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-182	+134	-
DK	17.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.666999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.4%, L7 7.0%, season 8.0%, BVP 4.4%/45 PA (adj 0.87x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (+110) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+105	-
DK	17.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.591 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 113 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .212 | OPS .675
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.6%, L7 26.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.9%/113 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.0%, L7 7.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.6%/113 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.67 | Season Avg 15.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/9 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.91 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.91 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-182) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-190	+137	-
DK	17.5	-182	+136	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.322 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 37 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .206 | OPS .564
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.9%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 8.9%, L7 6.9%, season 8.2%, BVP 2.7%/37 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.82 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.82 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (+112) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+110	-
DK	17.5	-148	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.456999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.2%, L7 8.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 18.5 (+121) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 18.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 18.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	18.5	+121	-162	-
DK	18.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.567 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 229 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .278 | OPS .876
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.6%, L7 25.2%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.3%/229 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.1%, L7 8.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 8.7%/229 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 18.5 (-164) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 18.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 18.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 17.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	17.5	-225	+155	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	18.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	18.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.479 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 18.25 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .282 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.4%, L7 28.7%, season 24.4%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.5%, L7 7.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Under 17.5 (-129) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-103	-129	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.682 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.7%, L7 9.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Drohan Under 17.5 (-105) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-134	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-126	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.778 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 24.0%, L7 22.5%, season 25.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.2%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6% (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 11.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-144) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+110	-
DK	17.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.082 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .095 | OPS .273
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.6%, L7 19.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.6%, L7 9.0%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.3%/23 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Over 17.5 (-126) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
DK	17.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.072 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.1%, L7 24.2%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.9%, L7 7.4%, season 7.8% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 (+107) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-143	+107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-142	+107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.932000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.44 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.186
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.0%, L7 23.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.7%, L7 5.0%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Over 17.5 (-171) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-176	+131	-
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.966 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.09 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 95 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .209 | OPS .541
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 23.7%, L7 34.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 34.7%/95 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.1%, L7 9.9%, season 9.6%, BVP 6.3%/95 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-132) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 110 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .317 | OPS .909
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 20.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 19.1%/110 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-155) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.87 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (-140) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 43 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .282 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.4%, L7 28.7%, season 24.4%, BVP 20.9%/43 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Over 5.5 (+103) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 99 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .283 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.9%, L7 17.8%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.1%/99 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-120) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS 1.186
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 18.0%, L7 23.6%, season 23.0%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Under 5.5 (-112) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.1%, L7 24.2%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-142) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Janson Junk Over 5.5 (-110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nathan Eovaldi Under 5.5 (-121) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 229 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .278 | OPS .876
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.6%, L7 25.2%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.3%/229 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Under 5.5 (-107) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 25.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 19 play(s) (C 19)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-149) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.15 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.09, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 95 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .209 | OPS .541
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 23.7%, L7 34.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 34.7%/95 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-103) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 2.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-134) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 2.81)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 5 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.8%, L7 18.4%, season 19.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-161) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.99 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.88, ERA 7.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 62 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 25.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.6%/62 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 3.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.19 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 5.32)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 15.0%, L7 20.4%, season 22.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nathan Eovaldi Under 2.5 (-141) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.40 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.26, ERA 3.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 229 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .278 | OPS .876
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.6%, L7 25.2%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.3%/229 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-150) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.91 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.93, ERA 5.25)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .083
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.1%, season 21.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Greene Over 2.5 (+110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.72 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 5.80)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 62 PA | K% 27.4% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.9%, L7 20.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 27.4%/62 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Under 2.5 (-133) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.66, ERA 2.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .304 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 23.7%, season 23.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 (-106) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.83 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | AVG N/A | OPS N/A
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.3%, L7 19.6%, season 22.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-111	-120	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.2%, L7 15.0%, season 19.3%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.79 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.86, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 17.3%, L7 23.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Over 2.5 (-111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 99 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .283 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 19.9%, L7 17.8%, season 21.3%, BVP 12.1%/99 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.33 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 5.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .618
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 23.8%, L7 17.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (+120) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.64 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 5.69)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 26 PA | K% 3.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .273 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (-116) Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-114	-116	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.1%, L7 24.2%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+120) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.24 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.66, ERA 2.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 38 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .314 | OPS .866
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 20.3%, BVP 28.9%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-136) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.68 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 5.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 70 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .270 | OPS .867
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 17.1%, L7 22.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 22.9%/70 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-131) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 5.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.2%, L7 26.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 28 play(s) (C 28)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Kurtz Under 1.5 (-243) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+180	-243	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.325 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 1/30 (3%) | L5 1/12 (8%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 72/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-194) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-370	+260	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Hao-Yu Lee Under 1.5 (-254) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+187	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 (-263) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+193	-263	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-248) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+183	-248	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-234) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-231) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+171	-231	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Lane Thomas Under 1.5 (-219) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+163	-219	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+155	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-202) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+150	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.212)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.173 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/102 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/49 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 43/53 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Hits: 85/102 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-265) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.237)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/79 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 33/41 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 62/79 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 (-268) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 20 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .721
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/42 (33%) | L5 10/23 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 75/102 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-251) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+185	-250	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.243)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.224 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 42/52 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 80/106 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-200) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/46 (24%) | L5 3/23 (13%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/94 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/45 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 67/94 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-217) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+161	-217	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.235)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.349 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/37 (14%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/49 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 44/53 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Hits: 82/102 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-266) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/36 (28%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 77/106 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 (-266) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 73/99 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-197) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.254)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.252 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/35 (20%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 77/101 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-233) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +213; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-294	+213	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+173	-233	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 71/100 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-260) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+191	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.265)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 75/103 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-243) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+180	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.228 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 29/45 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 70/100 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-256) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.271)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.282 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 73/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-218) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 78/105 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-267) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.378 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 4/22 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 79/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-272) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+200	-272	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.375 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/36 (31%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/92 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 33/44 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 64/92 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-233) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+172	-233	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 6/24 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 52/74 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 29/38 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 23/36 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 52/74 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-258) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.325)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter Hits: 63/106 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-243) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+180	-243	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.303)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.330 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/42 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 71/104 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-254) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+187	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.321)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/36 (33%) | L5 3/16 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 70/108 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 204 play(s) (C 204)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-105) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 61/108 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-450) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.194
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 85/108 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-375) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/104 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 77/104 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-450) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 80/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-508) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -508

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+337	-508	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/96 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 70/96 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-210) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/100 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 75/100 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-475) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/96 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 71/96 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-300) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 73/104 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-450) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-280) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/108 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-350) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-425) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-150) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .705
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter Walks: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter Walks: 61/110 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.81

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-265) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/104 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 77/104 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-320) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/108 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-230) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+164	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 69/102 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-300) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-350) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/101 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 76/101 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 72/103 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-425) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 20 PA | 6/16 | HR 2 | K% 35.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.312
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/106 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-300) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 63/89 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-475) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/102 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/102 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-350) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 81/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-450) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-450) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-130) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-350) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-300) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-450) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/105 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-320) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-265) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-265) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-340) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-245) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-525) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-200) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/89 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/44 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 54/89 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/95 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 69/95 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-297) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 69/100 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-213) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+152	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-289) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-413) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+280	-413	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-443) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-265) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/93 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 69/93 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/101 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 80/101 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Bart Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eli White Under 0.5 (-550) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-411) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+279	-411	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/107 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 77/107 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-215) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-225) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-165) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-196) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+140	-196	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/99 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 63/99 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-340) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-180) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-375) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | 7/21 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .798
BVP walk adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-265) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-195) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.067
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 72/106 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-255) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/23 | HR 1 | K% 42.3% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .617
BVP walk adjustment: 1.11x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/103 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/103 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 54/74 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 30/36 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 54/74 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-150) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-475) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-270) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-215) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/102 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 69/109 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-320) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-105) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/90 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Walks: 50/90 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-210) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-525) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-105) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-575) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-475) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-165) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-240) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Fry Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-340) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-238) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/106 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-280) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 67/108 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-340) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 62/107 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-255) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 75/108 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-320) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-525) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-230) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 69/102 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 78/100 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-525) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-155) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-500) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-500) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-165) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-320) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/54 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 66/106 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-300) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/86 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 26/42 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 53/86 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-241) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+171	-241	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/48 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 62/102 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 71/100 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-312) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -312 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+218	-312	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/104 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/97 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 60/97 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-210) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/103 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 74/103 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+135) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.075
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 19/53 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 50/110 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+125) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 18/50 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 48/105 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-264) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 67/104 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+260) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/38 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 31/79 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 25.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/38 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 31/79 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-479) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+320	-479	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-327) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-430) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -430

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+291	-430	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Schuemann Under 0.5 (-450) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-400) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-115) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 54/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-255) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-300) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-254) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-254	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/89 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/38 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 53/89 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-180) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-330) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 61/102 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+110) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 60/98 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-270) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/78 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 22/33 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 50/78 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-105) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/48 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 46/102 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-255) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 68/104 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 68/104 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 68/103 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-310) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+110) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 52/109 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-170) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+150) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/108 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-155) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+135) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/50 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 46/105 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-215) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 62/105 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-350) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 21 PA | 6/18 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .873
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 67/106 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+132) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 52/108 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-310) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-195) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/80 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/39 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 23/41 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 41/80 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-165) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-255) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+105) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 22/49 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 38/104 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 48/105 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-105) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 39/98 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .293
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 46/108 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+185) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 18/52 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 42/108 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-265) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 70/106 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (+109) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 24/55 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 52/105 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-210) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 68/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-215) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 57/92 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-212) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -212 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -212 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+152	-212	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 60/106 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+155) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 41/101 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 19/49 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 41/101 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-200) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.444
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/85 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 27/42 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 55/85 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-178) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+128	-178	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/93 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/93 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-280) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/46 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 51/99 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+135) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 44/109 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+165) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 41/106 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-180) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.889
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 66/98 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+155) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/52 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 40/106 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-180) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .713
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 66/110 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-245) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 28/49 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+140) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/103 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/49 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 38/103 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 200 play(s) (C 200)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Base projection 2.59 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556, xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/53 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-143) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-143	+107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Base projection 2.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.461, xSLG 0.632 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/86 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/44 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.73 | Away Batter HRR: 23/42 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 52/86 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-159) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-159	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/53 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+113) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/53 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-104) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 34/50 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.62 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-126) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/93 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 53/93 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-107) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+129) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-142) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.404 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+109) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-104) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.889
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-112) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.485 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-141) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 60/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-107) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.075
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 61/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-124) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.419 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-116) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-125) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.612 (37 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-134) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.360 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-148) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.355 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 55/100 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-139) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-139	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 69/106 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-143) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/54 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-122) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.501 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 53/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-138) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.496 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-127) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.379 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/99 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 57/99 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-136) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 20 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .721
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+108) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 64/107 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-126) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.269 (22 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-126) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.441, xSLG 0.592 (70 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 55/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-136) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.257 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/109 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 61/109 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-130) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.487 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 56/105 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-137) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.444 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-118) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.188, xSLG 0.168 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-110) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 21 PA | 6/18 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 58/106 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-111) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.366 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-126) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-141) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/99 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/99 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Under 2.5 (-155) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+116	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+110) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/89 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/44 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 53/89 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Under 2.5 (-146) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Under 2.5 (-157) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-144) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.381 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/79 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 38/79 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-114) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.390 (64 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+108) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.417, xSLG 0.516 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/95 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 42/95 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-114) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-107) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/85 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 38/85 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+102) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+123) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+126) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.604 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.067
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-141) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.278 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-120) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.292 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-149) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .293
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+112) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-123) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/110 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 53/110 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+103) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.432 (73 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-115) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.403 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-115) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+103) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.334 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/88 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 45/88 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-130) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 41/78 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 14/33 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 41/78 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-108) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.401 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-153) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-102) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.439 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-125) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-120) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.194
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+103) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.258 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 20 PA | 6/16 | HR 2 | K% 35.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.312
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-117) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+112) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.443, xSLG 0.503 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+125) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-111) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.347 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-115) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.236 (80 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-122) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.199 (61 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-117) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.380 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-103) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.470 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Under 2.5 (-141) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 42/53 under 2.5 (79%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 74/102 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-123) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.411 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-123) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+131) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-103) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.323 (77 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 55/106 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+102) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.340 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (-115) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/93 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/45 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 50/93 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-109) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+109) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-114) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+102) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.308 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/23 | HR 1 | K% 42.3% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-106) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.404 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+109) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 60 PA | 18/57 | HR 7 | K% 11.7% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 60 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/85 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 42/85 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+121) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.346 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+113) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.94 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Base projection 2.59 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556, xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 2.5 (60%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Under 2.5 (-166) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/94 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/45 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 35/49 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 61/94 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Under 2.5 (-130) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-102	-132	-
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.485 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 57/98 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-118) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Under 2.5 (-126) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-105	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.10 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 74/101 under 2.5 (73%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+111) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.318 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-151) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.11 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/100 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/48 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 64/100 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Under 2.5 (-147) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+113	-150	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.11 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 2.5 (71%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 70/105 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Over 1.5 (-148) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 15/51 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-115) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 58/104 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-113) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.374 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+112) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.437 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/89 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 47/89 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-166) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-115) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.241 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.464 (46 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Bradgley Rodriguez contact suppression 87, HR vulnerability 13 (adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/109 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 57/109 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Under 2.5 (-140) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.15 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 2.5 (63%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 64/103 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-116) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Under 2.5 (-138) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.20 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.418 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 under 2.5 (63%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 38/53 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 69/102 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (-148) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-129) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/100 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 67/100 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-150) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-109) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/105 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 45/105 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (-120) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (+106) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.453 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/96 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 36/96 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+103) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.221 (31 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/103 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 45/103 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+121) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/80 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/39 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 38/80 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-172) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.211 (39 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 60/102 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-130) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.203 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-138) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-107) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-151) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.188, xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 56/101 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-111) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (-106) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-103) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+124) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+105) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+112) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-121) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 58/101 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+115) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/87 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 33/87 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Under 2.5 (-133) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+100	-134	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.37 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 29/48 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 62/100 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.454, xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/91 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/46 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 32/91 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Soler Over 1.5 (+110) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.299 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/84 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 16/40 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 37/84 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-122) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.171, xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 40/89 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 43/108 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-120) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (-117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-154) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-154	+116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-135) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-164) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edouard Julien Over 1.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.105, xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/106 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 57/106 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-161) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-156) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-120) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (-117) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+116) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-153) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 67/109 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-131) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.457 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/93 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 36/93 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.216 (10 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-110) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-129) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-130) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (-102) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-111) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-122) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-106) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yohendrick Pinango Under 1.5 (-136) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-184) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-173) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Under 1.5 (-148) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Arias Under 1.5 (-153) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-103) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-137) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (+107) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Under 1.5 (-136) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+131) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.091, xSLG 0.119 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 262 play(s) (C 255 | D 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 427.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 427.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 428% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 427.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 427.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 428% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-154) diff 297.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 33/46 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 68/101 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.94

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 298% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-175) diff 277.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 277.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/53 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 74/104 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 278% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-135) diff 277.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 277.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/53 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 74/104 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 278% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-130) diff 270.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 270.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.360 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 71/104 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 270% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-180) diff 266.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 58/102 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-125) diff 258.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 258.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 37/50 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 81/106 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.94

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 258% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 254.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 254.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/44 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter TB: 30/45 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 63/89 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.01

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 255% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 254.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 254.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/44 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter TB: 30/45 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 63/89 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.01

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 255% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 0.5 (-180) diff 248.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 248.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/95 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 58/95 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 249% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 239.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 239.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 38/48 over 0.5 (79%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 78/107 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.92

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 239% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-160) diff 232.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.604 (24 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.067
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 63/104 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.58

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-155) diff 229.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.258 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 20 PA | 6/16 | HR 2 | K% 35.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.312
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 64/106 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.67

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-130) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Bart Over 0.5 (-155) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 223.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-150) diff 223.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 (-190) diff 223.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-160) diff 223.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-165) diff 222.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ali Sanchez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 222.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Schuemann Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-180) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 74/110 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.48

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-175) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 74/110 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-130) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-120) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 (-130) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-110) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-110) diff 218.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-125) diff 216.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Corey Seager -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Corey Seager -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-110) diff 216.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lucas Spence Over 0.5 (-110) diff 216.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-175) diff 215.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edouard Julien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-165) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-150) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-190) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-110) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (+105) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	-
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-120) diff 209.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-185) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-185) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Graham Pauley Over 0.5 (-115) diff 209.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-190) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-180) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-150) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-160) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-120) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Raley Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-110) diff 208.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-175) diff 205.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.503 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/103 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 65/103 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Fry Over 0.5 (-130) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-140) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-125) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-155) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-175) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-200) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-120) diff 202.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-140) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-130) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-140) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-165) diff 189.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 60 PA | 18/57 | HR 7 | K% 11.7% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 60 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/85 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 27/44 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/85 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 (-175) diff 187.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.516 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/95 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 59/95 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-155) diff 185.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 185.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-180) diff 181.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 75/105 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-190) diff 181.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/100 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 64/100 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-185) diff 181.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/96 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 55/96 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 0.5 (-190) diff 170.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/48 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 28/41 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 63/89 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-180) diff 161.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 161.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-160) diff 158.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/91 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/46 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 47/91 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-165) diff 153.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 153.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 150.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.216 (10 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 63/102 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 150.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 60/102 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-180) diff 143.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 143.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.119 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 64/105 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 143.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 143.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-165) diff 139.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 55/108 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 136.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 36/52 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 68/106 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 130.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 52/103 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-160) diff 126.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/89 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 44/89 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (-200) diff 118.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 59/101 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Smith Over 0.5 (-140) diff 111.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-125) diff 111.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 53/108 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-165) diff 106.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/101 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 54/101 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-165) diff 103.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 103.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.451 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/101 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 54/101 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 103.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 103.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-140) diff 98.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/101 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 63/101 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-150) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 52/105 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-160) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/102 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 36/47 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 66/102 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (39 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+108) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-101) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-116) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-108) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.537 (40 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 28/74 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 28/74 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+125) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (73 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | 7/21 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .798
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter TB: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-125) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-114) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/103 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 46/103 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+119) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.419 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-111) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-114	-114	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-196) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/101 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 66/101 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-135) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-127	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-135	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-185) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/100 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 73/100 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 20 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .721
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+103) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.269 (22 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+114) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.632 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/86 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/86 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+105) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/102 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 45/102 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+104) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.487 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/105 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 44/105 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+106) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+117) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/93 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 40/93 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+125) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.501 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/103 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 46/103 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+112) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.360 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+105) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.612 (37 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/107 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/107 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+131) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 31/85 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 31/85 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+108) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.379 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+113) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.592 (70 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-123) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.418 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/102 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 17/53 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 38/102 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+118) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+113) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.496 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/92 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 42/92 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Under 1.5 (-164) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 65/96 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 65/96 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.485 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 39/98 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-195) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 72/105 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 21 PA | 6/18 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+115) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/106 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 39/106 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+112) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/99 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 37/99 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+110) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/109 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 45/109 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+135) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+136) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 40/102 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+122) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.168 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-140) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+150) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+150	-202	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marco Gonzales Over 1.5 (+140) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+139) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.365 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.390 (64 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 25, HR vulnerability 75 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-146) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 70/99 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-196) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/101 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 64/101 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+122) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/78 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 33/78 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+123) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+133) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+109) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+145) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+155	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.889
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/98 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 38/98 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-187) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/93 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/45 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 55/93 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-185) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+131) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-115) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/94 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 42/94 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+128) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.075
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+116) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+150) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+142) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+109) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .293
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+129) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/102 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 17/53 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 34/102 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-199) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+128) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+150) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+119) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/95 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 40/95 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-165) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.318 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 71/108 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+145) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/79 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/79 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-126) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.485 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-150) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.203 (17 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/97 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/45 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 55/97 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-112) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/110 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/53 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 38/110 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 1.5 (+186) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+146) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.194
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/108 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 41/108 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.355 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+107) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-108) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (-117) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-181) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Vierling Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-180) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/88 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 53/88 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-169) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/103 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 65/103 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-192) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/23 | HR 1 | K% 42.3% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.236 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.401 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-179) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-157) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-187) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.404 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/103 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 63/103 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-192) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 26/50 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 55/104 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 34/90 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/45 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 34/90 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/106 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 16/52 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 38/106 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+146) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/106 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/52 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 39/106 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-165) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.411 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/105 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+143) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+145) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-123) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 71/108 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-180) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.380 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-167) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Under 1.5 (-194) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (73 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+133) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.323 (77 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-162) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.199 (61 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Arias Over 1.5 (+174) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+149) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yohendrick Pinango Over 1.5 (+150) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (+100) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-165) diff 194.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.439 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/97 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 52/97 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-150) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/80 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/39 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 27/41 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 50/80 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 187% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (-165) diff 169.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 33/49 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (-160) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.346 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 35/49 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 65/104 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-165) diff 156.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/93 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/47 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 51/93 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Soler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 146.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/84 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/44 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 55/84 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.510 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.38)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.566)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Edgardo Henriquez pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.5, xwOBA 0.245, HH% 28.2, mix FF/SI, n=646)
Ranger Suarez pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +1.0, xwOBA 0.284, HH% 32.0, mix SI/FF, n=1510)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.97, expected pen 4.2 IP)
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.87, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Edgardo Henriquez): 0.0056 HR/BF Away SP (Ranger Suarez): 0.0122 HR/BF
Boston Red Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Boston Red Sox Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.510 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.38)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.566)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Edgardo Henriquez pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.5, xwOBA 0.245, HH% 28.2, mix FF/SI, n=646)
Ranger Suarez pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +1.0, xwOBA 0.284, HH% 32.0, mix SI/FF, n=1510)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.97, expected pen 4.2 IP)
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.87, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Edgardo Henriquez): 0.0056 HR/BF Away SP (Ranger Suarez): 0.0122 HR/BF
Boston Red Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Boston Red Sox Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-118) edge 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 8 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	Recommended
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-114	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Hunter Greene (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.09)
Hunter Greene small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (+100) edge 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 11 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 9 books | 11 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 11 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 10.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	10.5	-	+100	-
BetOnline	10.5	-	+100	-
BetUS	10.5	-	+100	-
Bovada Direct	10.5	-	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	10.5	-	+100	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	+100	-
LowVig	10.5	-	+103	-
MyBookie	10.5	-	-104	-
theScore Bet	10.5	-	+100	-
BetRivers	11	-	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (+100) edge 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.88
Casey Mize xFIP 3.79
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 101)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 46.9% (2 books)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Minnesota Twins +1.5 1.5 (-137) edge 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -137

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -133 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.4 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+12.29/$100
✓ Cover prob 64.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 9.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -137 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Bryce Miller (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 96)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books)

▸ Batter HR — 241 play(s) (C 241)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0098
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (39 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/102 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 101/102 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0099
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/101 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 100/101 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0312
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/96 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 93/96 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Vierling Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-425) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/101 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 101/101 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0392
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/102 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 98/102 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0396
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/101 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 97/101 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0467
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/107 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 102/107 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0577
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/104 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 98/104 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0674
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/89 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/89 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0583
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/103 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/103 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0648
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.229 (18 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/99 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 93/99 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0680
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/103 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/103 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.404 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/103 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 95/103 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0849
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 97/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0729
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/96 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/96 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0990
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.446 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-700) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.439 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 89/97 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 89/97 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1058
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/104 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/104 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0841
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/88 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 80/88 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0917
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.380 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.127 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/106 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 95/106 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.623 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/94 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 85/94 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.411 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.355 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/100 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/100 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-700) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1236
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.196 (15 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/89 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 79/89 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1038
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .583 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/100 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 89/100 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1183
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (59 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .633
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/93 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 83/93 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.119 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.294 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.194
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-750) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.199 (61 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/108 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/108 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/106 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/106 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.432 (73 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/108 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/108 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/23 | HR 1 | K% 42.3% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .617
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-700) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 72/84 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 72/84 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1196
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.496 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/92 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 82/92 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.333 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.346 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.318 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1412
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 60 PA | 18/57 | HR 7 | K% 11.7% | BB% 5.0% | OPS 1.069
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 60 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/85 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 74/85 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1319
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (23 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/91 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 79/91 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1266
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/79 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 70/79 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1266
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/79 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 70/79 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.075
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .293
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 21 PA | 6/18 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/106 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/106 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.216 (10 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.503 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1753
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.203 (17 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/97 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 82/97 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1398
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/93 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 80/93 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-450) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.487 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.889
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.405 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.323 (77 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.371 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/78 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 66/78 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.148 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-450) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.418 (19 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1616
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1714
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.236 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.254 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.511 (18 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/95 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 78/95 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2022
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/89 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 72/89 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2022
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .627
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/89 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 72/89 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2037
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.401 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.489 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/107 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 85/107 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1789
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.370 (53 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/95 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 81/95 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.360 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-500) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.360 (20 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1845
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.501 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1852
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 89/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.470 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/90 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 73/90 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/85 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 73/85 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1757
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.537 (40 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 63/74 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 31/36 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 63/74 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.604 (24 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 15 PA | 5/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.067
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2250
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/80 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/39 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 63/80 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1981
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.258 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 20 PA | 6/16 | HR 2 | K% 35.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.312
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.485 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-285) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.485 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/98 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 79/98 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2277
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Edgardo Henriquez contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1683
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.401 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 7, HR vulnerability 93 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1935
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/93 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 75/93 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.379 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/99 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/99 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.592 (70 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.612 (37 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 20 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .721
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-450) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2202
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2277
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2264
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.168 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/106 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 83/106 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-800) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2326
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.632 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/86 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/44 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 67/86 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2569
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.419 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2353
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 79/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2353
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.578 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 79/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-700) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2547
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (73 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 25 PA | 7/21 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .798
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 81/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-425) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2981
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.269 (22 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 74/104 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-400) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2685
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-450) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2727
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 81/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.04x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3100
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/100 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 76/100 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-260) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3204
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.442 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3241
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3241
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 32 PA | 12/25 | HR 2 | K% 15.6% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.403
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-118	51.7%	71.5%	+19.7%	$+32.04	9	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Total	Under 10.5	DK	+100	47.8%	67.3%	+19.4%	$+34.54	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (Total) +19.7%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Hunter Greene (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.09)
Hunter Greene small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

C Under 10.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (Total) +19.4%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	+100	46.9%	62.6%	+15.6%	$+25.13	1	Bet on DK
B	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	6:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-128	52.6%	64.1%	+11.4%	$+14.13	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +15.6%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.88
Casey Mize xFIP 3.79
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 101)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)
Away SP: Casey Mize (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 Total) +11.4%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Hunter Greene xFIP 3.91
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.09
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Greene (RHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-a905479f5d4697e0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Will Warren · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shota Imanaga · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

6:11 PM · decision fi-b2047b8530b1f320

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Paul Skenes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hunter Greene · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-148	+110	55.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-148	+116	56.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

7:06 PM · decision fi-766e737c93e6041a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: Brandon Young · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:08 PM · decision fi-1f81c44e12bb011d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

7:11 PM · decision fi-036723b072ae5a98

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Mitch Bratt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-108	-123	48.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

7:11 PM · decision fi-1928e78e9372ff58

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Erick Fedde · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

7:11 PM · decision fi-23188acc5fda010a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Janson Junk · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-b8b1567e48ecb2b9

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Foster Griffin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Elder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+102	-135	46.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

8:16 PM · decision fi-171b84bbf7e4fbc6

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Nathan Eovaldi · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hunter Brown · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies

8:41 PM · decision fi-380e83b69b9fdf38

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Michael Wacha · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tomoyuki Sugano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+120	-161	42.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+115	-155	43.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+126	-162	41.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+120	-150	43.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:39 PM · decision fi-5a90f281862c1164

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Shane Drohan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Johnson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-73ba15279c6fbc68

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jeffrey Springs · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+103	-137	46.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+107	-141	45.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+116	-148	43.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+115	-145	44.0%	ACCEPTED

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

9:46 PM · decision fi-ea1a161d7ae8c115

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Carson Whisenhunt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bradgley Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+112	-142	44.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-03ad88df2eba6e25

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Edgardo Henriquez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-104	-129	47.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

10:11 PM · decision fi-58c4c8ae8de3c024

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-31T09:54:35.294316Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-137	+103	54.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-107	51.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 241 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=241
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	39.4%	30.1%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Bryce Elder (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	38.5%	19.9%	+18.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Shota Imanaga (L)	theScore Bet	+260	-	37.8%	25.6%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Bryce Elder (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	37.8%	24.3%	+13.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	36.3%	24.3%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Foster Griffin (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	35.5%	18.4%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	35.4%	20.8%	+14.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	34.7%	25.6%	+9.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	34.2%	27.1%	+7.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Foster Griffin (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.0%	20.8%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.3%	21.7%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jeffrey Springs (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.8%	23.1%	+9.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Foster Griffin (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.3%	16.7%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	-	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	31.8%	24.3%	+7.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	31.7%	21.7%	+10.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	-	Hunter Brown (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	31.0%	19.9%	+11.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.8%	21.7%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	30.6%	19.9%	+10.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	-	Nick Martinez (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.3%	21.7%	+8.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	-	Nick Martinez (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	30.3%	24.3%	+5.9%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	89.8%	-876	Jac Caglianone, Hunter Goodman, Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	100	88.9%	-803	Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	87.8%	-722	Ben Rice, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	87.5%	-701	CJ Abrams, James Wood, Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	86.9%	-661	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	100	86.8%	-658	Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Kody Clemens, Dominic Canzone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	86.6%	-648	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Mike Trout	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	100	86.6%	-646	Yordan Alvarez, Jake Burger, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	100	86.5%	-641	Brandon Lowe, Noelvi Marte, Ryan O'Hearn, JJ Bleday	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	100	85.8%	-606	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Junior Caminero	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	85.3%	-578	Kyle Stowers, Eddy Alvarez, Marcus Semien, Griffin Conine	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	100	84.6%	-551	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryan De La Cruz, Pete Alonso	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:46 PM	90	83.0%	-487	-	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	100	82.5%	-471	Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Jordan Walker, Jimmy Crooks	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Pass	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	89	77.9%	-353	Willson Contreras, Shohei Ohtani, Wilyer Abreu, Dalton Rushing	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.1%, P(U1.5) 55.5%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (+210) HR chance 39.4% | edge +9.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.324, OPS 1.072, ISO 0.319, TB/G 2.32
Statcast: barrel 18.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.6/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.714
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 30/108 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0419, xFIP 3.26, K% 25.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.307, xERA 3.95, whiff 30.7%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.403, K% 15.6% (32 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 1.133, ISO 0.337 (351 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+360) HR chance 38.5% | edge +18.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.255, OPS 0.917, ISO 0.266, TB/G 2.08
Statcast: barrel 11.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.470
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/106 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0370, xFIP 4.05, K% 20.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.97, whiff 21.8%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.798, K% 0.0% (25 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.982, ISO 0.295 (316 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+260) HR chance 37.8% | edge +12.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.298, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.303, TB/G 2.14
Statcast: barrel 15.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.522
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 30/104 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0423, xFIP 3.93, K% 23.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.296, xERA 3.65, whiff 27.5%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.023, OPS 0.785 (43 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.239 (156 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance James Wood — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+280) HR chance 37.8% | edge +13.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.273, OPS 0.950, ISO 0.280, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 21.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.2/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.599
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 29/110 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0370, xFIP 4.05, K% 20.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.97, whiff 21.8%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.705, K% 25.0% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.005, ISO 0.302 (344 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+280) HR chance 36.3% | edge +12.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.256, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.468
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/109 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0342, xFIP 3.89, K% 22.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.59, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.956, ISO 0.296 (327 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.490, xwOBA 0.378 (57 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+400) HR chance 35.5% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.233, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.201, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 14.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.522
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/86 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0319, xFIP 3.68, K% 22.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.306, xERA 3.92, whiff 24.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.750, ISO 0.175 (153 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0308

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Seiya Suzuki — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (+340) HR chance 35.4% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.194, OPS 0.835, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 9.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.8/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.420
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 18/93 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0342, xFIP 3.89, K% 22.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.59, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.040, OPS 0.787, ISO 0.189 (302 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.482, xwOBA 0.366 (23 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (+260) HR chance 34.7% | edge +9.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.168, OPS 0.768, ISO 0.201, TB/G 1.61
Statcast: barrel 14.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.482
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 14/101 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0484, xFIP 4.93, K% 13.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.401, xERA 7.33, whiff 17.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.043, OPS 0.800, ISO 0.211 (279 PA)
Park HR factor 1.20

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+700	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Steven Kwan	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+700	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	+550	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Nolan Schanuel	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	+700	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Jakob Marsee	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+650	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Nico Hoerner	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+750	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Caleb Durbin	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+550	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Edgardo Henriquez	Ranger Suarez	0.97	22.1% MODEL SIGNAL	55.5% MODEL SIGNAL	—	—	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Dylan Cease	Kyle Leahy	0.96	17.5%	48.0%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:46 PM	Bradgley Rodriguez	Carson Whisenhunt	0.85	17.0%	47.2%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Brandon Young	None	1.00	15.4%	44.1%	—	—
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Freddy Peralta	Janson Junk	0.93	14.7%	43.0%	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Nick Martinez	Erick Fedde	0.94	14.2%	41.8%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	Hunter Greene	Paul Skenes	1.15	13.5%	40.5%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	8:16 PM	Hunter Brown	Nathan Eovaldi	1.00	13.4%	40.3%	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Ryan Johnson	Shane Drohan	0.98	13.4%	40.3%	—	—
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	Bryce Miller	Zebby Matthews	0.92	13.2%	39.9%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jeffrey Springs	Casey Mize	1.00	13.1%	39.8%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Bryce Elder	Foster Griffin	1.03	12.5%	38.5%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Shota Imanaga	Will Warren	1.05	12.2%	37.8%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	Tanner Bibee	Mitch Bratt	0.95	11.1%	35.4%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Tomoyuki Sugano	Michael Wacha	1.20	10.2%	33.6%	—	—

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.1%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (55.5%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.510 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.38)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.96x (base lambda 1.566)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Edgardo Henriquez pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.5, xwOBA 0.245, HH% 28.2, mix FF/SI, n=646)
Ranger Suarez pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +1.0, xwOBA 0.284, HH% 32.0, mix SI/FF, n=1510)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.97, expected pen 4.2 IP)
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.87, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Edgardo Henriquez): 0.0056 HR/BF Away SP (Ranger Suarez): 0.0122 HR/BF
Boston Red Sox Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Boston Red Sox Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	74.2	78.1	77.5	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 34.8%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bradgley Rodriguez	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	72.2	60.7	87.0	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 43% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.241, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Edgardo Henriquez	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	69.6	62.1	81.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	68.1	62.7	76.5	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.262, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	67.3	57.6	80.5	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	63.3	59.6	71.0	5	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	61.2	59.4	66.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	60.1	63.5	59.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	59.9	68.8	54.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.2	54.5	66.0	6	Curveball (45% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	57.6	57.8	59.5	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	55.8	55.3	56.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	51.8	51.3	54.5	7	Sweeper (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	50.6	61.8	41.5	4	Slider (49% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	50.5	49.6	53.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	48.5	48.2	51.0	5	Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.1	49.0	44.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	45.6	43.3	48.5	6	Changeup (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	45.5	45.7	38.0	4	Sweeper (36% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	45.5	47.1	43.0	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	44.6	34.1	52.5	6	Changeup (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	44.0	46.0	38.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	42.0	42.3	40.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	41.4	56.9	25.0	4	Changeup (48% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	39.3	33.0	47.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	38.8	33.9	41.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	38.6	44.9	33.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	34.0	24.8	35.0	6	Slider (27% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 15.9%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	21.5	31.2	7.0	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.401, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	L	18.0%	3.8	3.9	4.8	64	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	L	17.0%	4.1	5.0	4.8	69	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	21.0%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	21.0%	6.0	5.8	5.8	101	deep	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	28.1%	4.9	5.3	5.2	82	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	L	22.5%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	17.1%	4.4	4.8	4.7	74	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	26.9%	5.3	5.4	5.5	89	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	16.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	R	14.0%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	7.00	93.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	R	24.8%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	22.1%	5.4	5.2	5.3	91	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	R	19.9%	6.1	6.3	6.3	102	deep	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.9%	4.4	4.6	4.7	74	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Edgardo Henriquez	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.6%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	81.50	18.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	18.5%	4.6	5.3	5.1	77	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	24.1%	5.9	5.2	6.0	99	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.2%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	22.1%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	R	20.3%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	30.2%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	76.50	23.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Bradgley Rodriguez	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.8%	1.0	1.0	3.7	17	short	full	87.00	13.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	L	21.0%	5.1	5.2	5.5	86	short	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	R	25.0%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.9%	5.0	5.1	5.0	84	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	R	13.1%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	27.8%	5.8	6.1	6.0	97	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	36.8%	6.8	6.0	6.1	114	deep	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	L	21.4%	6.4	5.9	6.0	107	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

13/13 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	21.7	3.2	17.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.91 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.82 <= 3 min
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.5	-1.0	6.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	18.5	19.6	1.1	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	18.5	17.5	-1.0	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Drohan	Shane Drohan Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.8	-0.7	4.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

204 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.94	1.65	0.65	0.65	2.94 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.69	1.03	0.95	0.70	2.74 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.59	1.08	0.68	0.83	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.52	1.17	0.73	0.62	2.58 / Over	0.35	season_games=74,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.51	1.08	0.74	0.70	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=86,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.51	1.07	0.73	0.71	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.46	1.38	0.54	0.54	2.46 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.46	1.00	0.71	0.74	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.40	1.03	0.67	0.70	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.40	1.38	0.51	0.51	2.46 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.38	1.29	0.61	0.47	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Matt Olson	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.37	1.01	0.71	0.65	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.33	1.05	0.66	0.62	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Junior Caminero	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.30	1.08	0.60	0.62	2.37 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.29	1.01	0.66	0.61	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.28	1.10	0.55	0.64	2.19 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.27	0.91	0.68	0.67	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.26	1.02	0.59	0.65	2.09 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.26	1.33	0.46	0.46	2.38 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
William Contreras	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.24	1.06	0.55	0.63	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.23	1.05	0.55	0.63	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.22	1.01	0.58	0.63	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Garcia Jr.	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.22	1.21	0.50	0.50	2.16 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.21	1.02	0.62	0.57	2.00 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	Over 1.5	2.20	1.04	0.56	0.60	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 5 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes