MLB Bets 2026-07-30

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	646W–325L–0P	67%	-24.79 u	Last 14 days • 971 settled
Grade A	27W–24L–0P	53%	-2.30 u
Grade B	619W–301L–0P	67%	-22.49 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2692W–1783L–8P	60%	-160.07 u	All-time • 4483 settled
Grade A	236W–177L–0P	57%	+0.31 u
Grade B	2456W–1606L–8P	60%	-160.38 u

62 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lowe	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Gonzales	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Ryan O'Hearn	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-538	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Jake Irvin	3.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Rhett Lowder	4.5	123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Ryan Weathers	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Sean Burke	6.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Shane McClanahan	4.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	JP Sears	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	2.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Burke	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane McClanahan	1.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Javier Assad	5.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-29	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	4.5	-133	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hayden Wesneski: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-29	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Drake Baldwin: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-29	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-123	-	WIN	+0.813	Jordan Walker: 3.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	477	56%	-9.75u	71	51%	-7.02u	223	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	427	58%	+7.55u	70	49%	-10.58u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	151	56%	-0.35u	13	69%	+2.73u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1142	74%	-3.12u	515	77%	+5.94u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	449	56%	-19.20u	119	48%	-22.56u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	337	60%	-12.07u	97	62%	+0.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	44	75%	+2.47u	7	57%	-1.43u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	112	47%	-12.23u	9	67%	+1.31u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	14	50%	-1.77u	13	54%	-0.77u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	533	52%	-51.25u	49	63%	+5.43u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 477, 14d N 71	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 427, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 151, 14d N 13	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 19 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 19/19 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 44, 14d N 7	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 166 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 112, 14d N 9	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 13	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 6 actionable / 122 total candidate(s); season N 533, 14d N 49	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 122 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 761 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 324 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 740 pitcher(s), 3271 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 19 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) \| 19 SP matchup(s), 843 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 260 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: New York Mets, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 10/10 game(s) with pitching props \| K 15 line(s)/9 game(s); Outs 15 line(s)/9 game(s); Hits Allowed 16 line(s)/10 game(s); Walks 5 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 17 line(s)/10 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 65, fanatics 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 1832 market side(s) checked \| 1832 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 10 game(s) fetched \| 10 with ML odds \| 10 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 122 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 608 \| batter bats 320 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 154 batter(s) scored \| 10 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	+124	-150	+1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	+119	-143	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+165)	+1.5 (-201)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+166)	+1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-117	-103	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+124	-150	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+129	-156	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 31 Grade B | 659 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch	K Prop	Eury Perez Over	MAR@MET	7:11 PM	5.5	7.8	-143	DK Over 5.5 -143 \| exact	40.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Jake Irvin Over	NAT@BRA	7:16 PM	3.5	4.9	-149	BetOnline Over 3.5 -145 \| best price	40.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Noah Cameron Over	ROY@TWI	1:41 PM	4.5	5.5	-126	BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 \| best price	22.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (10 play(s))

K Prop - Bailey Ober Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.64

Batter Hits - Royce Lewis Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Nico Hoerner Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Hits - Bryan Reynolds Under

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Under 1.5 -252Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Chandler Simpson Under

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Under 1.5 -269Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Jake Mangum Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Jorbit Vivas Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Francisco Lindor Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Josh Naylor Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Trent Grisham Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-143) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.67 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-146	+114	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 40.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Eury Perez: K/9 9.6, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .140 | OPS .492
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; L7 team K% 28.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 3.5 (-149) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-
BetMGM	4.5	+145	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 40.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Jake Irvin: K/9 9.6, proj 4.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 129 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 129 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.9%, L7 24.0%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 21.7%/129 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/11 (91%) | Season 10/11 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-126) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.3, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .203 | OPS .489
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (31 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 (+123) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-158	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 28.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Rhett Lowder: K/9 7.0, proj 3.2K over 4.2 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 17 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 29.4% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.029
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.9%, L7 22.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.61
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 18.4%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Sean Burke Over 6.5 (-146) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.67 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
DK	6.5	-146	+114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	-148	+116	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 26.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Sean Burke: K/9 10.9, proj 8.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 25 PA | K% 44.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .671
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 20.7%, L7 28.8%, season 24.3%, BVP 44.0%/25 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.19
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.41 vs season
K% trend: support +9.4 ppts (recent 36.4% vs season 27.0%, proj adj +4.7%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.73K, diff 26.6%, books 80%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 (-166) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.79 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 5.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+109	-
DK	4.5	-166	+130	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
FanDuel	5.5	+134	-172	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.9% / under 41.1%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.33
Shane McClanahan: K/9 7.5, proj 5.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .771
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.7%, L7 26.4%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -166, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (-157) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.79 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-165	+125	-
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 22.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.33
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.9, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 22.3% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.6%, season 23.7%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.10
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Javier Assad Under 5.5 (-161) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 59 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .245 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 16.4%, season 20.3%, BVP 20.3%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-168) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5912958066028418 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .203 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.7%, L7 9.0%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.0%/67 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Sean Burke Over 1.5 (-136) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.884320489817689 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 25 PA | K% 44.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 20.7%, L7 28.8%, season 24.3%, BVP 44.0%/25 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 13.3%, L7 7.7%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — JP Sears Over 1.5 (-150) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs JP Sears: 59 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, BVP 27.1%/59 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (-114) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 2.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .771
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 26.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-132) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.23, ERA 4.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.6%, season 23.7%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-127) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 2.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 25 PA | K% 44.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 20.7%, L7 28.8%, season 24.3%, BVP 44.0%/25 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-125) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.20 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 2.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Batter Walks — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-475) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-550) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .784
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-525) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-340) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/100 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 77/100 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-340); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .673
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-538) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -538

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+354	-538	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-538); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-350) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/94 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 73/94 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-321) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-321); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-270) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/103 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 76/103 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-270) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/102 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/102 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-153) diff 99.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 99.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.442, xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 62/109 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.61

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.5, heavy juice -153 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-145) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.506, xSLG 0.672 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/103 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/52 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 60/103 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.34

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-133) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.407 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.52

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-134) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.367 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-149) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-148) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/103 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 60/103 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-135) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-135	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-103	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Bailey Ober xFIP 4.77
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.16
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bailey Ober (RHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-125) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 3.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-125	+105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-104	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.35
Eury Pérez xFIP 4.07
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (659 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-122) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-122	-104	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.9, proj 5.2K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .648
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (+101) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.4, proj 5.0K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 50 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .822
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 20.7%/7 hitters, BVP 30.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-137) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+107	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 8.9, proj 5.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .671
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (-102) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.9, proj 6.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-160) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-175	+125	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Bailey Ober: K/9 7.0, proj 4.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 76 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Under 4.5 (-163) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Andre Pallante: K/9 6.4, proj 4.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 112 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .340 | OPS .951
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 112 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.7%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.9%/8 hitters, BVP 12.5%/112 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 26.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-124) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	6.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	6.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.7, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 26.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .316
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.76
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Roki Sasaki Under 17.5 (-120) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	-
DK	17.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 14.732 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.7%, L7 3.6%, season 8.7% (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 15.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-182) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-193	+142	-
DK	17.5	-182	+136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.643 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 26.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .316
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.8%, split 10.1%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 1.20x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 17.5 (-102) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-134	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-130	-102	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.575 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 12.0%, L7 5.7%, season 10.1%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-115) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-117	-114	-
DK	17.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.378999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 14.1%, L7 6.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.9%/38 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 16.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.96 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eury Perez Over 17.5 (-136) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-136	+102	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.132 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .140 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.1%, L7 11.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 16.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Over 17.5 (-129) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-134	+100	-
DK	17.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.77 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 25 PA | K% 44.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 20.7%, L7 28.8%, season 24.3%, BVP 44.0%/25 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 13.3%, L7 7.7%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grant Holmes Under 5.5 (-126) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-126	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 50 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (+113) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-124) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Over 5.5 (-119) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-111	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .203 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-114) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-114	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.0 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 17 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 29.4% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.029
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.9%, L7 22.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (+110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+110	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.22 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.6%, season 23.7%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bailey Ober Under 5.5 (-155) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+116	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Under 5.5 (-108) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 112 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .340 | OPS .951
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.7%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/112 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane McClanahan Over 1.5 (+133) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7405763133020726 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane McClanahan: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .771
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.7%, L7 26.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.7%, L7 6.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Weathers Under 1.5 (-126) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2942143905355732 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.7 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.6%, season 23.7%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.8%, L7 8.4%, season 8.9%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bailey Ober Under 1.5 (-242) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3093765315387427 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 33.6% / under 66.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.4%, L7 7.8%, season 8.4%, BVP 1.3%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-170) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.93 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.35, ERA 2.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 26.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .316
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Javier Assad Under 2.5 (-136) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 59 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .245 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 16.4%, season 20.3%, BVP 20.3%/59 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-101) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.77, ERA 5.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 76 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.7%/76 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-172) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 2.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .140 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Over 2.5 (-135) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.83 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 5.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .203 | OPS .489
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.83, ERA 2.60)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.85 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 3.99)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 112 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .340 | OPS .951
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.7%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.5%/112 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.73 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.83, ERA 6.07)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 17 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 29.4% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.029
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.9%, L7 22.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.87 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 5.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 129 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.9%, L7 24.0%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/129 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.64, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 50 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .822
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 4.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Roki Sasaki: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (+119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 4.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .182 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-225) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/35 (31%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Hits: 37/49 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 78/100 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.81

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 (-256) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+188	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-259) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+191	-259	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-193) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Royce Lewis Under 1.5 (-266) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+196	-266	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-184) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 (-238) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305 (56 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 75/101 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-220) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+164	-220	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 3/39 (8%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 77/105 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-270) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	0.5	-256	+190	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	-
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.253)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.298 (62 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.189
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 8/18 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/51 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 82/106 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-252) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-225	+165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+186	-252	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.281 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 60.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/40 (12%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 40/52 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 80/109 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willson Contreras Under 1.5 (-229) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+170	-229	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/29 (31%) | L5 1/12 (8%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/100 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 37/48 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 75/100 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-208) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 75/103 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-269) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Recommended
DK	1.5	+198	-269	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/35 (40%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/101 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter Hits: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 68/101 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-276) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+202	-276	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.345 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/41 (29%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/99 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 66/99 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-228) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.191 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .784
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 72/102 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-262) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+193	-262	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.410 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/107 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 73/107 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-256) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+188	-256	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.466 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/38 (18%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 76/106 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-256) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.329 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/85 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 58/85 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-260) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+191	-260	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.506 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/43 (19%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 71/103 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Marco Gonzales Under 1.5 (-240) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.315)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter Hits: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-229) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.315)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter Hits: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 141 play(s) (C 141)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+125) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 60.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 19/52 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 50/109 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-510) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -510

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+338	-510	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/99 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 78/99 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-320) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 16 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/103 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 70/103 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-425) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 75/106 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-282) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 69/101 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-310) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-475) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-406) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+276	-406	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-376) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-350) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-216) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/105 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-289) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/92 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 68/92 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-340) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/100 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 75/100 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-324) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/104 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-386) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-500) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 84/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-320) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-525) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-230) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-180) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-300) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-225) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-500) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-525) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 8 PA | 6/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 2.161
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 71/100 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-400) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/90 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 67/90 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-390) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+266	-390	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 74/102 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-265) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-142) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+103	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-161) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+116	-161	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-204) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+146	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-207) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-253) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -253 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+179	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-301) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -301 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -301 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-327) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+227	-327	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-473) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+316	-473	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-200) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-340) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-265) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-330) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-289) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+202	-289	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 69/101 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.189
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 76/106 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+230) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/108 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-246) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/98 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/50 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 63/98 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-265) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-557) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -557

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+365	-557	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-389) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -389

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+265	-389	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-193) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+139	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+318	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-550) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-225) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-225) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-255) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-240) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-330) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-550) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/103 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 82/103 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-210) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-225) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 60/99 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-210) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .300
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 67/108 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-225) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/103 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/49 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 65/103 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-150) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-240) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-340) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-525) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-280) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-225) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-313) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-462) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -462

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+310	-462	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-419) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+284	-419	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-177) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-344) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+237	-344	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-352) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-418) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-418	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-506) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -506

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+336	-506	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-280) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-170) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 66/105 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-264) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+186	-264	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/103 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-203) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+145	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 69/101 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-300) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-185) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-425) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-550) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-310) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/49 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 68/107 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-270) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 61/101 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-225) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/44 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-225) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 66/97 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (+115) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/87 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 14/45 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 35/87 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-280) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/94 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 68/94 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-140) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 70/107 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-230) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/84 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 55/84 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (+115) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/88 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/43 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 34/88 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (+165) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/53 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 40/107 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-225) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 69/101 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-185) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 7/9 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 29/55 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 55/107 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-245) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+174	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/103 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-245) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 61/106 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-280) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-350) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 73/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+275) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +275 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +275

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 31/79 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/38 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 31/79 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 24.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-173) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+125	-173	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/88 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/38 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 52/88 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-216) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/105 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+165) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/49 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 46/104 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-165) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 57/92 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+140) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/46 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 48/99 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-215) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .831
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/105 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 60/105 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-225) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 69/105 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-185) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-243) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-180) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 65/105 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-105) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 22 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.222
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 52/104 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+155) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 44/109 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+135) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 18/48 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 40/100 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (+155) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/100 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 16/45 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 34/100 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (+160) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/100 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/55 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 16/45 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 34/100 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 116 play(s) (C 116)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-134) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.467 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-148) diff 62.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.330 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 62/108 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-158) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 60.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/109 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 61/109 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-120) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 53/106 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-111) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.486 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-128) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.374 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/105 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/105 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-152) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-122) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.268 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 60/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-110) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 69/105 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-108) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.494 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+102) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-107) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.394 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-125) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.496 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 57/98 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 57/98 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-143) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Under 2.5 (-159) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-118) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 58/105 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+119) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Under 2.5 (-170) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-140) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.315 (60 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+103) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.484 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-129) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.212, xSLG 0.142 (31 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/88 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/43 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 52/88 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+100) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.412 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+118) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.357 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-125) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.432 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-107) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.219 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 57/104 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-128) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-110) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+121) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+103) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+127) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.512 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-119) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.270 (80 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-101) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.457 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+119) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (-101) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+118) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/84 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 37/84 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+105) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+105) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-124) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.304 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-124) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.210 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-106) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.146, xSLG 0.189 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-126) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+101	-134	-
DK	2.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/54 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 34/51 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 73/105 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+117) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-141) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-154) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.09 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 2.5 (69%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 67/103 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-166) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-166	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.297 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-131) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.179, xSLG 0.191 (60 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-115) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.224 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.269 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 32 PA | 8/30 | HR 2 | K% 28.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .815
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-106) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 43/108 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+126) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.435 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-105) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/88 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 39/88 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 2.5 (+117) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.72 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.540 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/85 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/43 over 2.5 (49%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 17/42 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 38/85 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-160) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-129) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-113) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+115) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+131) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-195	+135	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Under 2.5 (-144) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.265 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .784
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/47 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 65/102 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Under 2.5 (-127) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+100	-134	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.36 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.516 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/100 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 61/100 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+108) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edwin Arroyo Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luisangel Acuna Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edgar Quero Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-138) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-136) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (-116) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-109) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Rojas Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-168) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-158) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-158	+118	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (-155) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-131) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-128) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-110) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (-103) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Under 1.5 (-171) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.218 (38 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-137) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.203 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/92 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 57/92 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-149) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.47 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.484 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Over 1.5 (-101) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 14/50 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter HRR: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 166 play(s) (C 163 | D 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 364.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 364.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 365% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 364.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 364.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 365% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 309.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 309.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/103 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/52 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 73/103 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.80

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 310% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-175) diff 267.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 267.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 71/104 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 257.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 257.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/105 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/56 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 81/105 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.96

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 257% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-165) diff 230.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.527 (47 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 22 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 60/104 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-150) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-150) diff 227.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-185) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 58/101 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.70

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-155) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 58/101 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.70

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 226.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/84 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/43 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 49/84 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.67

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-120) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (-135) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Raley Over 0.5 (-120) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edwin Arroyo Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-175) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+138	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+129	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Osuna Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-125) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-135) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-175) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (+100) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Everson Pereira Over 0.5 (-125) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edgar Quero Over 0.5 (-155) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (+105) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-110) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-185) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-185) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-170) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Velazquez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Rojas Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyrone Taylor Over 0.5 (-135) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-190) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-175) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 (-185) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-135) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-115) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-115) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-185) diff 201.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/99 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 64/99 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.55

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-200) diff 201.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	-
Caesars	0.5	-205	+150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/79 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/38 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 50/79 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.51

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 196.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.512 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 67/104 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-160) diff 191.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/97 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 32/47 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 62/97 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-140) diff 172.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 62/101 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-200) diff 170.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+148	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-197	+146	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.334 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 8 PA | 6/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 2.161
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 62/100 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (-200) diff 169.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/57 over 0.5 (81%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 79/109 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-160) diff 148.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 148.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 148.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 148.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 142.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (59 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 16 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 142.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-155) diff 133.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 133.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (43 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/92 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/46 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 50/92 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 133.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 133.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-130) diff 131.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.87
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.218 (38 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 53/101 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+101) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+106) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+112) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.540 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/85 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/85 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-103) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+108) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.701 (31 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-113) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+118) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/103 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 46/103 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-123) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.516 (49 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/100 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 44/100 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+130) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.607 (57 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .300
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 51/108 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-104) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+120) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.496 (38 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 39/94 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-114) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.265 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .784
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+110) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.639 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+114) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.367 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 34/94 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 13/45 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 34/94 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-189) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.224 (39 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-184) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/98 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter TB: 70/98 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+132) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 40/92 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 53/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marco Gonzales Over 1.5 (+110) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+116) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-124) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 39/105 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-158) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (60 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 72/100 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-177) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 73/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-105) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 60.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+124) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.142 (31 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/88 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 43/88 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+121) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+147) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+140) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+129) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (56 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/108 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 46/108 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+135) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-127) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-194) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/101 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 64/101 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+118) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (60 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-180) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (62 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.189
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+147) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+136) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-200) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (74 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .831
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 67/105 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-200) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-111) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/100 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 38/100 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+138) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+151) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+151	-202	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+134) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-107) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+133) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+113) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-207) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	Recommended
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.219 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 58/104 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+145) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+142) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-157) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.269 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 32 PA | 8/30 | HR 2 | K% 28.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .815
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 67/101 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-143) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.210 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/101 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 63/101 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 40/107 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-172) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.345 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 70/107 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+135) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/109 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/53 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/109 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (80 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/53 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 37/104 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.189 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+149) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (55 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 7/9 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 38/107 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-196) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (71 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-165) diff 140.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/88 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 43/88 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-115) diff 98.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/100 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 54/100 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-110) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 51/104 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (-112) edge 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 10.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 10.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 10.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	10.5	-	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	10.5	-	-110	-
DK	10.5	-	-112	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	-110	Recommended
MyBookie	10.5	-	-114	-
theScore Bet	10.5	-	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Mason Barnett small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-114) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -114

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7	-114	-	-
BetUS	7	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-115	-	-
DK	7	-114	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-114	-	-
LowVig	7	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-116	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.35)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 8 at 2 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8 -103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-110	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
LowVig	7.5	-107	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	-103	-	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	8	-104	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Cole Winn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cole Winn small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-110) edge 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-110	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.37
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.63
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 49.1% (2 books)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Texas Rangers (+134) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +134 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +134

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.05
Cole Winn xFIP 4.09
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Cole Winn (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ NRFI — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-128) edge 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars NRFI 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -128

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars NRFI 0.5 -125 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.73, K% 30.3%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.258, K% 25.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 16.4%
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.23, K% 26.6%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 28.4% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.358, K% 24.2%, BB% 5.5%, whiff% 26.9%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.99
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 71% (17 starts) | Ryan Weathers: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +13.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -4.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A -120

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.05, K% 20.5%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.6% | 1st inn full (73 PA): xwOBA 0.268, K% 30.1%, BB% 5.5%, whiff% 27.0%
Cole Winn: xFIP 4.09, K% 23.5%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 84% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +2.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+116) edge 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +116

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Bailey Ober: xFIP 4.77, K% 17.8%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 19.8% | 1st inn full (61 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 23.3%
Noah Cameron: xFIP 4.16, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.305, K% 17.7%, BB% 13.9%, whiff% 22.5%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.01
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bailey Ober: 73% (15 starts) | Noah Cameron: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +3.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +5.8%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-170) edge 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers NRFI 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -170

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers NRFI 0.5 -148 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.35, K% 28.8%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.267, K% 30.6%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 21.6%
Eury Pérez: xFIP 4.07, K% 27.0%, BB% 9.5%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 29.6%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 33.5%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 71% (21 starts) | Eury Pérez: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -170 | implied 63.0% | model edge +1.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +132 | implied 43.1% | model edge +8.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge -3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers NRFI 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -115

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers NRFI 0.5 -103 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.15, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 29.8% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.9%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 26.6%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.68, K% 23.1%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 27.4%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 26.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.82
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Roki Sasaki: 83% (18 starts) | Bryan Woo: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.316 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -3.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +12.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+106) edge -4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars NRFI 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +106

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars NRFI 0.5 +115 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.37, K% 17.6%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 20.9%
Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.63, K% 22.0%, BB% 6.5%, xwOBA 0.302, whiff% 22.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.240, K% 25.6%, BB% 6.4%, whiff% 24.3%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.08 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.93
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 63% (19 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.273 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -4.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +13.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+106) edge -8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline NRFI 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +106

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline NRFI 0.5 +110 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.64, K% 19.0%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.278, K% 27.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 28.5%
Jake Irvin: xFIP 4.23, K% 24.3%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 25.4% | 1st inn full (59 PA): xwOBA 0.442, K% 25.4%, BB% 13.6%, whiff% 19.8%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 127 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.94 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 79% (19 starts) | Jake Irvin: 55% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.247 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -8.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +17.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-114) edge -8.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct NRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -114

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct NRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

JP Sears: xFIP 4.23, K% 20.9%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 66-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.334 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI BETRIVERS odds -114 | implied 53.3% | model edge -8.8%
YRFI BETRIVERS odds -117 | implied 53.9% | model edge +8.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +102

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel NRFI 0.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.83, K% 16.7%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 20.6% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.377, K% 20.3%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 20.3%
Yohan Ramírez: xFIP 4.27, K% 22.0%, BB% 11.9%, xwOBA 0.302, whiff% 26.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (1 PA): xwOBA 0.032, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 0.0%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.05
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Rhett Lowder: 60% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch) | Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.235 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -18.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +27.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct NRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -120

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct NRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.00, K% 16.9%, BB% 6.8%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (89 PA): xwOBA 0.371, K% 15.7%, BB% 9.0%, whiff% 17.6%
Javier Assad: xFIP 4.45, K% 17.3%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 13.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.243, K% 28.6%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 15.2%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 96)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.22
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 65% (20 starts) | Javier Assad: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.309 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -22.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +31.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A -106

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.00, K% 16.9%, BB% 6.8%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (89 PA): xwOBA 0.371, K% 15.7%, BB% 9.0%, whiff% 17.6%
Javier Assad: xFIP 4.45, K% 17.3%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 13.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (28 PA): xwOBA 0.243, K% 28.6%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 15.2%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 96)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.83 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.22
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 65% (20 starts) | Javier Assad: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.309 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.359 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -22.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +31.2%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 31% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A -130

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Rhett Lowder: xFIP 4.83, K% 16.7%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 20.6% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.377, K% 20.3%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 20.3%
Yohan Ramírez: xFIP 4.27, K% 22.0%, BB% 11.9%, xwOBA 0.302, whiff% 26.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (1 PA): xwOBA 0.032, K% 0.0%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 0.0%
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.05
Park: Great American Ball Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.10)
NRFI rate: Rhett Lowder: 60% (15 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch) | Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.235 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -18.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +27.9%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-136) edge 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -136

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -135 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Grant Holmes: xFIP 4.64, K% 19.0%, BB% 10.2%, xwOBA 0.333, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.278, K% 27.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 28.5%
Jake Irvin: xFIP 4.23, K% 24.3%, BB% 9.2%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 25.4% | 1st inn full (59 PA): xwOBA 0.442, K% 25.4%, BB% 13.6%, whiff% 19.8%
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 127 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.94 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.96
Park: Truist Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.01)
NRFI rate: Grant Holmes: 79% (19 starts) | Jake Irvin: 55% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.247 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -8.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +17.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-136) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A -136

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.37, K% 17.6%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 20.9%
Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.63, K% 22.0%, BB% 6.5%, xwOBA 0.302, whiff% 22.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.240, K% 25.6%, BB% 6.4%, whiff% 24.3%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.08 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.93
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 63% (19 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.273 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -4.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +13.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A -111

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Roki Sasaki: xFIP 4.15, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.321, whiff% 29.8% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 22.9%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 26.6%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.68, K% 23.1%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 27.4%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 26.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.87 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.82
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Roki Sasaki: 83% (18 starts) | Bryan Woo: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.316 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge -3.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +12.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-117) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -117

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -110 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

JP Sears: xFIP 4.23, K% 20.9%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Away SP (TBD) -- used league avg
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 66-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.334 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI BETRIVERS odds -114 | implied 53.3% | model edge -8.8%
YRFI BETRIVERS odds -117 | implied 53.9% | model edge +8.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+132) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +132

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.35, K% 28.8%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 25.8% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.267, K% 30.6%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 21.6%
Eury Pérez: xFIP 4.07, K% 27.0%, BB% 9.5%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 29.6%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 33.5%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.37, SO/G 0.52
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 71% (21 starts) | Eury Pérez: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.301 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -170 | implied 63.0% | model edge +1.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +132 | implied 43.1% | model edge +8.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-148) edge 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -148

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars YRFI 0.5 -135 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Bailey Ober: xFIP 4.77, K% 17.8%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 19.8% | 1st inn full (61 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 23.3%
Noah Cameron: xFIP 4.16, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.305, K% 17.7%, BB% 13.9%, whiff% 22.5%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.01
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bailey Ober: 73% (15 starts) | Noah Cameron: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.254 vs SP's top pitch) | Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +116 | implied 46.3% | model edge +3.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -148 | implied 59.7% | model edge +5.8%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline YRFI 0.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A -106

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline YRFI 0.5 +102 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Shane McClanahan: xFIP 4.05, K% 20.5%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 26.6% | 1st inn full (73 PA): xwOBA 0.268, K% 30.1%, BB% 5.5%, whiff% 27.0%
Cole Winn: xFIP 4.09, K% 23.5%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.340, whiff% 27.6%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Shane McClanahan: 84% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +6.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +2.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+100) edge -4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +100

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel YRFI 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.73, K% 30.3%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.288, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.258, K% 25.0%, BB% 2.9%, whiff% 16.4%
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.23, K% 26.6%, BB% 6.6%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 28.4% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.358, K% 24.2%, BB% 5.5%, whiff% 26.9%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.99
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 71% (17 starts) | Ryan Weathers: 60% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +13.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge -4.5%

▸ Batter HR — 154 play(s) (C 154)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0099
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.218 (38 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/101 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 100/101 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Osuna Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/101 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 101/101 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0396
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.224 (39 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/101 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/101 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0481
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/104 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/104 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 90.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0472
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (62 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.189
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/106 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 101/106 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 90.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.334 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 8 PA | 6/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 2.161
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/100 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 96/100 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0583
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/103 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 97/103 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.219 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.484 (71 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (74 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .831
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0980
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (63 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1058
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.512 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0962
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1068
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-700) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.345 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-700) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/88 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 78/88 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1212
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/99 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 88/99 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (55 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 7/9 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.14x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (60 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1266
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/79 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 70/79 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (43 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/92 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 80/92 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (59 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 16 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.210 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (80 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1376
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (66 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 5 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 60.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.269 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 32 PA | 8/30 | HR 2 | K% 28.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .815
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1584
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/101 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 86/101 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-450) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.639 (33 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/107 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 92/107 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/107 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/107 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-425) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/84 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 73/84 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (56 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 17 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 5.9% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .435
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.672 (65 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2045
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.142 (31 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/88 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/43 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 71/88 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1771
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1731
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.527 (47 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 22 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1845
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane McClanahan contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane McClanahan: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 85/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (60 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Yohan Ramírez contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Yohan Ramírez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/107 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 87/107 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2121
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.189 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/99 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/99 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1863
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.265 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .784
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/102 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/102 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1809
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.367 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/94 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 80/94 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1957
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/92 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 74/92 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.607 (57 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .300
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2075
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.701 (31 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Javier Assad contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/106 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 84/106 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-450) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2075
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.650 (30 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2376
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2376
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.128 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2178
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (56 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/101 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 83/101 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-300) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/99 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/99 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-330) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.516 (49 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-425) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.376 (76 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2353
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.540 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/85 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 66/85 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2571
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.407 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-400) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2593
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 2 | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .812
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter HR: 83/108 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3010
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.486 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/103 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 73/103 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2710
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cole Winn contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cole Winn: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2752
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (68 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/109 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 80/109 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3241
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Total	Under 10.5	DK	-112	50.4%	69.4%	+19.0%	$+31.39	5	Bet on DK
C	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-114	51.0%	69.4%	+18.4%	$+30.30	9	Bet on DK
C	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-112	50.4%	67.2%	+16.7%	$+27.11	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Under 10.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (Total) +19.0%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Mason Barnett small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (Total) +18.4%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.35)

C Over 7.5 — Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +16.7%

[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Cole Winn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cole Winn small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-110	49.2%	65.6%	+16.4%	$+25.15	1	Bet on DK
B	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	1:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-135	54.0%	63.5%	+9.5%	$+10.49	3	Bet on DK
B	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	61.6%	+9.5%	$+10.96	2	Bet on DK
C	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	12:11 PM	F5 ML	Texas Rangers	FanDuel	+134	40.5%	48.6%	+8.1%	$+13.80	4	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +16.4%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.37
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.63
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +9.5%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Bailey Ober xFIP 4.77
Noah Cameron xFIP 4.16
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bailey Ober (RHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

B Over 3.5 — Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 Total) +9.5%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.35
Eury Pérez xFIP 4.07
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)

C Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Shane McClanahan xFIP 4.05
Cole Winn xFIP 4.09
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Away SP: Cole Winn (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (10 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	Sean Burke / Ryan Weathers	6.0 / 7.7	4.0 / 7.7	+13.3%	Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Nolan McLean / Eury Pérez	5.6 / 7.7	4.4 / 7.7	+1.0%	Score 5.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 1.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	Shane McClanahan / Cole Winn	5.3 / 7.7	4.7 / 7.7	+6.5%	Score 5.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.5% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki / Bryan Woo	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-3.5%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -3.5% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	Bailey Ober / Noah Cameron	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	+3.3%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	JP Sears / TBD ⚠ Away SP	3.9 / 7.7	5.4 / 7.7	-8.8%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -8.8% < 8% required Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn data partial (18 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Mason Barnett / Sonny Gray	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-4.8%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Grant Holmes / Jake Irvin	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-8.2%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -8.2% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	Andre Pallante / Javier Assad	2.8 / 7.7	7.2 / 7.7	-22.2%	Score 2.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -22.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (28 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	Rhett Lowder / Yohan Ramírez	2.7 / 7.7	7.3 / 7.7	-18.9%	Score 2.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -18.9% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (1 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 154 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=154
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	39.3%	25.6%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	37.9%	21.7%	+16.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	37.0%	26.3%	+10.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	37.0%	23.1%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	36.0%	25.6%	+10.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	35.4%	28.9%	+6.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ryan O'Hearn	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	33.8%	19.1%	+14.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-	Javier Assad (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.0%	18.4%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	-	Ryan Weathers (L)	theScore Bet	+280	-	31.9%	24.3%	+7.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	-	Cole Winn (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	31.7%	26.3%	+5.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	31.2%	23.1%	+8.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	-	Shane McClanahan (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	30.9%	21.7%	+9.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	-	Sean Burke (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	30.3%	24.3%	+6.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-	Yohan Ramírez (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	29.9%	19.9%	+10.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.8%	18.4%	+11.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	29.6%	19.9%	+9.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-	Javier Assad (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.0%	18.4%	+10.6%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	-	Yohan Ramírez (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	28.9%	20.8%	+8.1%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	28.5%	19.1%	+9.4%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	-	Bailey Ober (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	28.0%	25.6%	+2.5%	94	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	88.2%	-751	James Wood, CJ Abrams, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	87.3%	-690	Willson Contreras, Tyler Soderstrom, Wilyer Abreu, Andruw Monasterio	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	100	86.7%	-649	Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez, Carter Jensen, Ryan Jeffers	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	100	86.7%	-649	Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Sal Stewart, Bryan Reynolds	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	86.5%	-640	Julio Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Randy Arozarena, Max Muncy	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	100	86.2%	-626	Jordan Walker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alec Burleson, Seiya Suzuki	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	100	86.1%	-617	Junior Caminero, Jake Burger, Elias Diaz, Yandy Diaz	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	100	85.2%	-575	Miguel Vargas, Ben Rice, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	93	85.2%	-574	-	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	83.0%	-488	Eddy Alvarez, Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance James Wood — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+260) HR chance 39.3% | edge +13.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.275, OPS 0.950, ISO 0.281, TB/G 2.13
Statcast: barrel 21.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.2/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.598
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/109 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0359, xFIP 4.64, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.73, whiff 25.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.500, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 1.008, ISO 0.305 (339 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+320) HR chance 37.9% | edge +16.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.257, OPS 0.926, ISO 0.269, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 11.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.8/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.472
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 25/105 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0359, xFIP 4.64, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.73, whiff 25.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.000, K% 42.9% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.989, ISO 0.296 (314 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+250) HR chance 37.0% | edge +10.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.259, OPS 0.866, ISO 0.261, TB/G 2.05
Statcast: barrel 14.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.509
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 25/108 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0318, xFIP 4.24, K% 25.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.26, whiff 25.4%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.812, K% 23.8% (21 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.909, ISO 0.293 (270 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (+300) HR chance 37.0% | edge +13.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.235, OPS 0.857, ISO 0.203, TB/G 1.88
Statcast: barrel 14.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.7/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.518
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/85 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0318, xFIP 4.24, K% 25.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.26, whiff 25.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.927, ISO 0.222 (227 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.540, xwOBA 0.329 (28 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (+260) HR chance 36.0% | edge +10.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.232, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 12.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.456
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/100 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0272, xFIP 4.85, K% 18.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.359, xERA 5.62, whiff 20.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.888, ISO 0.275 (313 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.376, xwOBA 0.258 (76 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (+220) HR chance 35.4% | edge +6.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.254, TB/G 1.87
Statcast: barrel 14.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/100 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.75, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.76, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.241 (299 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.516, xwOBA 0.363 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Ryan O'Hearn — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (+380) HR chance 33.8% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.181, OPS 0.799, ISO 0.188, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 7.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.4/108.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.415
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 14/94 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0272, xFIP 4.85, K% 18.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.359, xERA 5.62, whiff 20.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.872, ISO 0.212 (269 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.367, xwOBA 0.284 (53 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Jordan Walker — Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals (+400) HR chance 32.0% | edge +13.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.207, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.218, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.5/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.498
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 22/106 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 4.51, K% 16.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.67, whiff 13.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.143, K% 28.6% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.819, ISO 0.215 (330 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Jakob Marsee	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+1100	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+900	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	+600	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+900	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Masyn Winn	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+650	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+650	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Kyle Tucker	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+400	2.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+475	2.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	+500	2.6%	Lineup not confirmed

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Nolan McLean	Eury Pérez	0.93	17.0%	47.1%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	JP Sears	None	0.85	14.8%	43.1%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	Sean Burke	Ryan Weathers	1.00	14.8%	43.1%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:11 PM	Shane McClanahan	Cole Winn	0.94	13.9%	41.4%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	Andre Pallante	Javier Assad	0.93	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki	Bryan Woo	0.97	13.5%	40.6%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	7:11 PM	Rhett Lowder	Yohan Ramírez	1.15	13.4%	40.2%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	1:41 PM	Bailey Ober	Noah Cameron	0.95	13.4%	40.2%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Mason Barnett	Sonny Gray	1.00	12.7%	38.8%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Grant Holmes	Jake Irvin	1.03	11.8%	36.9%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

19 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	57.7	59.3	62.0	7	Curveball (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	57.1	53.8	63.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yohan Ramírez	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	56.4	58.0	56.5	4	Sweeper (37% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	55.8	52.1	62.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	55.7	60.5	53.0	6	Slider (43% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	55.2	62.4	47.0	3	Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	53.2	62.8	44.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	51.4	57.2	50.0	4	Changeup (39% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	51.0	41.8	59.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	50.3	47.1	56.5	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cole Winn	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	48.0	57.4	37.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	46.4	47.2	47.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	45.4	50.0	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	44.5	51.1	37.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	43.5	39.1	46.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	43.1	52.7	33.0	6	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	42.7	45.9	40.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	36.7	43.7	28.0	4	Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	34.2	24.9	42.0	7	Cutter (15% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 13.9%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

19 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.5%	1.8	-	5.0	30	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	19.0%	4.8	4.9	4.9	80	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	R	22.0%	6.0	5.6	5.7	101	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	17.3%	3.1	5.2	4.9	52	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	R	30.3%	6.1	5.5	6.0	102	deep	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	16.7%	2.8	4.7	4.3	47	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	L	20.8%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	R	23.1%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	27.0%	6.2	5.5	6.0	104	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.8%	4.7	5.4	5.3	79	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	28.8%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	L	26.6%	3.9	5.4	5.1	65	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Yohan Ramírez	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.0%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	L	20.9%	4.3	4.9	5.1	72	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	23.1%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.9%	5.7	5.6	5.6	96	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	L	20.5%	5.6	5.0	5.2	94	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cole Winn	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	23.5%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	24.3%	4.4	4.7	4.6	74	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Roki Sasaki	Roki Sasaki Under	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	14.7	-2.8	15.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eury Perez	Eury Perez Over	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Over	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

122 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.81	1.06	1.00	0.75	2.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.72	1.11	0.72	0.89	2.64 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.56	1.03	0.73	0.81	2.53 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'Hearn	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.55	1.05	0.64	0.86	2.54 / Over	0.35	season_games=94,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.53	1.50	0.52	0.52	2.67 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Matt Olson	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.52	1.05	0.76	0.71	2.43 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.43	1.08	0.75	0.60	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=88,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.42	1.01	0.76	0.66	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.40	1.23	0.64	0.54	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.39	1.04	0.70	0.65	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.37	0.95	0.58	0.83	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Garcia Jr.	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.37	1.26	0.55	0.55	2.25 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Mauricio Dubon	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.32	1.24	0.54	0.54	2.21 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.32	1.00	0.64	0.68	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Noelvi Marte	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.28	1.22	0.53	0.53	2.17 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Andy Pages	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.27	1.01	0.59	0.67	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.22	1.29	0.53	0.40	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Endy Rodriguez	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.20	1.17	0.51	0.51	2.09 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Junior Caminero	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.17	1.09	0.54	0.54	2.47 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.17	1.13	0.53	0.51	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.15	1.02	0.65	0.47	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Josh Bell	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.13	0.91	0.54	0.68	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.13	0.90	0.64	0.58	2.35 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kody Clemens	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.10	0.91	0.59	0.59	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=94,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.09	1.17	0.46	0.46	2.09 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes