MLB Bets 2026-07-28

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	480W–246L–0P	66%	-10.94 u	Last 14 days • 726 settled
Grade A	22W–22L–0P	50%	-4.20 u
Grade B	458W–224L–0P	67%	-6.74 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2526W–1704L–8P	60%	-146.23 u	All-time • 4238 settled
Grade A	231W–175L–0P	57%	-1.60 u
Grade B	2295W–1529L–8P	60%	-144.63 u

184 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Byron Buxton	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Garcia Jr.	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter H+R+RBI	Seiya Suzuki	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Manny Machado	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-347	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Amed Rosario	0.5	-399	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-464	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-439	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Anthony Volpe	0.5	-221	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Austin Wells	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-436	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Braden Montgomery	0.5	-516	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Brandon Lowe	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-336	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Brandon Valenzuela	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-204	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Byron Buxton	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-740	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Chase Meidroth	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-236	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-458	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Colby Thomas	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-585	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-339	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Colt Keith	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Colton Cowser	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-443	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Drew Romo	0.5	-529	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-219	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Eduardo Valencia	0.5	-395	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Edwin Arroyo	0.5	-399	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	-298	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-518	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-276	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-517	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	-243	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Garrett Stubbs	0.5	-460	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	George Springer	0.5	-231	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Gleyber Torres	0.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Hao-Yu Lee	0.5	-418	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-229	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-389	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-430	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	James Outman	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jasson Domínguez	0.5	-246	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Javier Baez	0.5	-505	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-324	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-376	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-556	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-481	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-471	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Kyle Manzardo	0.5	-234	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Lane Thomas	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-210	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Liam Hicks	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-496	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Luis Urias	0.5	-371	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-418	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Max Schuemann	0.5	-285	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-503	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-377	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nathaniel Lowe	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-455	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-377	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-507	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-457	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-379	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Patrick Bailey	0.5	-392	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Paul Goldschmidt	0.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Petey Halpin	0.5	-392	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Ryan Jeffers	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Ryan O'Hearn	0.5	-326	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	TJ Friedl	0.5	-285	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Travis Bazzana	0.5	-180	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-432	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-224	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Victor Caratini	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-406	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-282	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Xavier Edwards	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Yandy Diaz	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Yohel Pozo	0.5	-557	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Yohendrick Pinango	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Zach McKinstry	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Dean Kremer	4.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Jake Bennett	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Shane Bieber	3.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	K Prop	Troy Melton	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Aaron Nola	2.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Jax	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-104	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Luis Castillo	3.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Lorenzen	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	2.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cade Cavalli	5.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dean Kremer	5.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Justin Wrobleski	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Lorenzen	5.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Peter Lambert	5.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Reid Detmers	5.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Hits Allow	Taj Bradley	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Outs	Sandy Alcantara	17.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Bubba Chandler	1.5	-199	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Chase Burns	1.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Chase Burns	2.5	-206	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Taj Bradley	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Run Line	Cleveland Guardians	+1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Run Line	Texas Rangers	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Total	Over	8.0	-114	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-27	K Prop	Jack Perkins	4.5	-141	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jack Perkins: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-27	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	7.5	110	-	LOSS	-1.000	Zack Wheeler: 6.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-27	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryan Reynolds	1.5	-133	-	WIN	+0.752	Bryan Reynolds: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	470	56%	-6.06u	64	53%	-3.33u	222	58%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	415	58%	+11.03u	58	50%	-7.10u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	146	55%	-0.52u	8	75%	+2.56u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	971	74%	-3.54u	344	77%	+5.51u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	432	57%	-14.20u	103	50%	-16.68u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	322	60%	-11.93u	82	62%	+0.79u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	43	77%	+3.47u	6	67%	-0.43u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	110	46%	-13.67u	7	57%	-0.13u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	54	41%	-8.78u	4	75%	+1.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	9	56%	-0.37u	8	62%	+0.63u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	524	52%	-51.10u	40	65%	+5.59u	77	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 470, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 415, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 146, 14d N 8	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 32 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 32/32 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 2 actionable / 33 total candidate(s); season N 43, 14d N 6	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 110 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 110, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 3 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 9, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 5 actionable / 196 total candidate(s); season N 524, 14d N 40	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 196 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 759 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 322 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 738 pitcher(s), 3261 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 564 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 32 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 19 team(s), 171 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 32 SP matchup(s), 1526 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 171 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 6 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2454 market side(s) checked \| 2454 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 13 game(s) fetched \| 13 with ML odds \| 13 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 196 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 13 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 9 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 608 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 150 \| pitcher HR splits 59 \| batter pitch-type 564 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 227 batter(s) scored \| 13 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+134)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+107	-129	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+167)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+144	-175	+1.5 (-148)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-125	+104	-1.5 (+137)	+1.5 (-166)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+149	-181	+1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+103)	+1.5 (-125)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+187	-231	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+118)	+1.5 (-142)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+192	-237	+1.5 (-102)	-1.5 (-119)	O/U 9.5	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

7 Grade A | 106 Grade B | 810 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 7 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	James Wood Over	JAY@NAT	6:46 PM	0.5	0.8	-128	DK Over 0.5 -128 \| exact	61.1%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood Over	JAY@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	3.3	-150	BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 \| best price	118.4%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams Over	JAY@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	3.1	-144	BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 \| best price	106.7%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	CUB@CAR	7:46 PM	1.5	2.9	-136	DK Over 1.5 -136 \| exact	93.4%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2	Batter H+R+RBI	Seiya Suzuki Over	CUB@CAR	7:46 PM	1.5	2.7	-131	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	77.5%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Garcia Jr. Over	JAY@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	2.6	-137	DK Over 1.5 -137 \| exact	75.5%	✓✓✓✓✓✓	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage	F5 Total	Under 5.5	ORI@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	-	-146	FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 \| exact	+12.4%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (22 play(s))

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -146Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Bubba Chandler Under

Projection: 3.7Displayed: Under 4.5 -165Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 4Recommended: BetOnline Under 4.5 -156 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

Pitcher Earned Runs - Seth Lugo Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Batter Hits - Manny Machado Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Hits - Nico Hoerner Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Hits - Kevin McGonigle Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Masyn Winn Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Nolan Arenado Under

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Under 1.5 -181Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -140Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Sandy Alcantara Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5

K Prop - Brandon Pfaadt Under

Projection: 4.0Displayed: Under 4.5 -168Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.79Recommended: BetRivers Under 4.5 -165 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.79

Pitcher Outs - Michael McGreevy Over

Projection: 17.6Displayed: Over 17.5 -108Market line: majority 16.5 | avg 17Recommended: BetMGM Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 17

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Reid Detmers Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shane Bieber Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.83

Batter Hits - Wilyer Abreu Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Bryan Reynolds Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Kody Clemens Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Andy Pages Under

Projection: 1.0Displayed: Under 1.5 -273Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Fernando Tatis Jr. Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Curtis Mead Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Wilyer Abreu Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Manny Machado Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-128) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -128

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
DK	0.5	-128	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 58/107 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-150) diff 118.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 3.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 118.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Base projection 2.62 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.394 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/55 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.62
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40% -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-144) diff 106.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 3.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 106.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.54
Base projection 2.54 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.336 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 61/103 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.54
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-136) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.505 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 63/104 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.47
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-131) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.385 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/90 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/45 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 52/90 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.27
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-137) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓✓✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.508 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.13
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-146) edge 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5	-116	-104	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	5	-115	-105	-
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-146	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.3 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Troy Melton xFIP 3.98
Dean Kremer xFIP 3.94
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 99)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Troy Melton (RHP)
Away SP: Dean Kremer (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (106 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 3.5 (-167) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -167

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-145	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-167	+131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 51.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.79K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.1% / under 40.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.5, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 28.2%, L7 21.1%, season 22.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -167 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.79K, diff 51.1%, books 86%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-149) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.7, proj 5.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Split-Finger (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 47.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 98 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .307 | OPS .894
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 16.3%/98 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.67 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -149, lineup BVP K% 16.3% over 98 PA, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Peter Lambert Under 5.5 (-166) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+124	-166	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.70 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.0%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Taj Bradley Under 5.5 (-160) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .348
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (+107) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.74 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 0.96, BB% 5.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 28.2%, L7 21.1%, season 22.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cade Cavalli Under 5.5 (-141) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 7.1%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.6%, season 19.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 (-124) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-124	-107	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 6.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.42 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.77, BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 78 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .324 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 12.8%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-159) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 0.99, BB% 5.0%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .513
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.3%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-119) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 98 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .307 | OPS .894
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 16.3%/98 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/6 under 5.5

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 (-199) diff 123.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 62.4% / Under 37.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-199	+149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.3501002242963804 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 123.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.54 over 4.8 IP (BB% 12.7%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 62.4% / under 37.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.29x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 30.8% | AVG .111 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 17.1%, L7 14.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 15.4%/13 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 13.5%, split 10.3%, L7 12.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 30.8%/13 PA (adj 1.29x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-199); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-145) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.278955253354909 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.5 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.0%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.8%, L7 10.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Over 1.5 (-125) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.209580453482819 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .348
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.9%, L7 6.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.5%/44 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 1.5 (-150) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.203509412733225 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael King: 32 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .185 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 7.0%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.2%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 21.5% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-141) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.200578759401027 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 12.4%, L7 9.7%, season 10.2%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-137) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8268795958791626 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 10.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.9%, BVP 0.0%/9 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (4/6); lineup K% 20.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/6 over 1.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Over 1.5 (-155) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 3.15)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael King: 32 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .185 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 21.5% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (-144) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 4.28)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .130 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 24.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/27 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-163) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	-
DK	2.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.25 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.39, ERA 3.14)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.6%, season 19.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Luis Castillo Under 3.5 (-149) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 4.73)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-161) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.85 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 4.58)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .292 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-101) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.18 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 2.57)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 28.2%, L7 21.1%, season 22.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 (-125) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.61 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 5.99)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 78 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .324 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 12.8%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Over 2.5 (-143) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-143	+107	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 6.10)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Aaron Nola: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .749
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 17.3%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Batter Hits — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Curtis Mead Under 1.5 (-244) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -244

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+181	-244	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.253)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.347 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/31 (36%) | L5 3/15 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/88 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/46 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Hits: 34/42 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter Hits: 72/88 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.82

⚠ Heavy juice (-244); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-258) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +198; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	0.5	-270	+198	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.78 (AVG 0.210)
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 7/23 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/103 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/49 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Hits: 82/103 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.78

⚠ Heavy juice (-258); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 78 play(s) (B 78)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-476) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -476 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -476

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -476 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+318	-476	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-476) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-536) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -536

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+353	-536	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-536) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-481) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -481

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+321	-481	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-481) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-280) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 27 PA | 7/27 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .630
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-362) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-417) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 37 PA | 13/35 | HR 0 | K% 13.5% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .891
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 37 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-417) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-391) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-391) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-379) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -379

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -379 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+260	-379	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-379) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-507) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -507

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -500; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+336	-507	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-507) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-287) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 36 PA | 8/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .553
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 74/101 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-287) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-436) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/101 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 84/101 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-436); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-680) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -680

Selected market: Over 17.7% / Under 82.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+435	-680	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-680); break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.3% / Under 80.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+389	-600	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-585) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -585

Selected market: Over 19.6% / Under 80.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+360	-590	-
DK	0.5	+381	-585	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/107 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 83/107 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-585) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-496) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -496

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+330	-496	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-496); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-411) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+279	-411	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 49 PA | 17/45 | HR 2 | K% 18.4% | BB% 8.2% | OPS .984
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 49 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/104 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 78/104 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-411) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-406) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 75/101 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-406); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-460) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -460

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+309	-460	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-460) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-375) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/92 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/44 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 71/92 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-352) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+243	-352	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/81 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/40 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 57/81 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-352) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-377) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+258	-377	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-377) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-261) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-261) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-321) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-371) diff 54.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-371) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-440) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -440

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -440 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+297	-440	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/92 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 75/92 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-440); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Endy Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-298) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -298 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -298 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-298	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 67/96 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-298) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-556) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -556

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+365	-556	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 67/96 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-556) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-333) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/94 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 69/94 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-333) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-471) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/101 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 80/101 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-471); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-269) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-269) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-571) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -571

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+373	-571	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-571) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-443) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+298	-443	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/105 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 83/105 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-443) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-517) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -517

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+342	-517	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/97 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 76/97 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-517); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-457) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+307	-457	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-457); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-421) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+285	-421	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-421) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-389) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -389

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+266	-389	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/98 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 76/98 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-389) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-275) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+194	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/98 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 77/98 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-275); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-430) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -430

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -430 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+291	-430	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/101 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 73/101 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-430); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-224) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-224) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-256) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-266) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-266) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-283) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-283) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-229) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-229) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-324) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-324); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-248) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-248); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-282) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-282); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-276) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-276); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-335) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/101 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-335); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-322) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+224	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-322); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-210) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-210); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-347) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 12 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .083
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-347); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-332) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-395) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+269	-395	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-395) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-505) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+335	-505	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-505) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-336) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/100 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-336); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-418) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+283	-418	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-418); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-289) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .958
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/91 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 67/91 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-289); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colby Thomas Under 0.5 (-417) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-417); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-236) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+168	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/104 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-236) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-326) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+226	-326	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/92 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 66/92 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-326); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-235) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -235; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/95 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 65/95 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-235) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-376) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+258	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/104 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-376); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-306) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-325	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-306) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-471) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-471) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-231) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/76 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 22/31 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 50/76 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-231) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-233) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-377) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+258	-377	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-377) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-288) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/98 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 65/98 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-288); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-396) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/98 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 65/98 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-396) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-302) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -302 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -302 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-302) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-284) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-503) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -503

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+334	-503	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-503); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-248) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/52 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-248) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-281) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-458) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -458 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -458

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -458 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+308	-458	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-458) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yohel Pozo Under 0.5 (-557) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -557 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -557

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -557 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-557) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-292) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+205	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/102 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 67/102 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-243) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+185	-260	-
DK	0.5	+173	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 69/105 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-243); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-118) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 5.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-115	-
BetUS	5.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	5.5	-110	-118	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-109	-111	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.01
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.93
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Under 5 -101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5	-115	-105	-
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	5	-121	-101	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Justin Wrobleski xFIP 4.14
Luis Castillo xFIP 4.50
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Away SP: Luis Castillo (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-142) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -142

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -133 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Reiver Sanmartin (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+20.47/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -142 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Landen Roupp (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Logan Henderson small sample (38 IP) — stats 47% actual / 53% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -0.521u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (810 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (A 1 | B 3 | C 14)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-147) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-155	-
DK	2.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.08 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 2.11)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/10 (90%) | Season 9/10 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-127) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.74 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 4.12)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-105) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.40 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.86)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 98 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .307 | OPS .894
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 16.3%/98 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Under 2.5 (-146) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.00 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.91, ERA 4.22)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .188 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 28.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Under 3.5 (-159) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-
DK	3.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.33)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (4/6); lineup K% 20.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 under 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-144) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 4.25)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-165) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+124	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.44 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 3.74)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .264 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (+101) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.03)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 227 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .325 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.5%/227 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Colin Rea Over 2.5 (-106) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.09 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 4.72)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .132 | OPS .403
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-111) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 2.86)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.0%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 (+101) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 5.06, ERA 4.39)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.6% / under 53.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 30.8% | AVG .111 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 17.1%, L7 14.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 15.4%/13 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-150) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 3.41)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .348
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Under 2.5 (-149) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.50 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 2.37)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .513
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.3%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-125) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.14 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 3.29)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.5%, L7 22.2%, season 21.1% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.62 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-104	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.00 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 5.05, ERA 4.26)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cal Quantrill: 33 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .207 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 21.1%, season 19.1%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 18.2%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/21 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 2.83)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 53 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .340 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 25.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (+116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.74 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.01, ERA 6.03)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.6%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Under 2.5 (-108) Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 3.70)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .961
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2%, top-6 22.9%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 31 play(s) (A 1 | B 4 | C 26)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-253) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+170	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+186	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.273)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.308 (13 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 13/34 (38%) | L5 5/15 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 69/98 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Riley Greene Under 1.5 (-255) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.281)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.221 (27 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 8/37 (22%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 73/106 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-248) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +188; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	0.5	-250	+188	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.254)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 19/44 (43%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/104 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/51 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 80/104 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-257) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+189	-257	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.424 (13 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/53 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 77/103 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-256) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.315)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 16/43 (37%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter Hits: 60/101 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-237) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+176	-237	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.79 (AVG 0.237)
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.252 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 3/16 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/98 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Hits: 36/47 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 77/98 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.79

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-266) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+196	-266	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-182) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-226) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+168	-226	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-261) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 6/37 (16%) | L5 1/19 (5%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 75/103 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-257) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+185	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.251 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 49 PA | 17/45 | HR 2 | K% 18.4% | BB% 8.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 49 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/104 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 41/50 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.84 | Day Batter Hits: 79/104 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-264) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+194	-264	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.269)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 6/40 (15%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 40/52 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 78/107 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-258) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	-
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.243)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.379 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/92 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/44 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 37/48 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter Hits: 69/92 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-263) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+193	-263	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.264)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/102 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willson Contreras Under 1.5 (-229) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/30 (30%) | L5 2/13 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 35/46 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 73/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-273) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-225	+165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+200	-273	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.317 (137 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/38 (18%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/105 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 46/56 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 81/105 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-221) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -221

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+164	-221	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 35/47 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 74/101 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-243) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+180	-243	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 72/104 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-253) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.326)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.227 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/47 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 60/100 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-251) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 12 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .083
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 17/42 (40%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-259) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+191	-259	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.296)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.268 (151 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Recent form: L10 16/35 (46%) | L5 7/16 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/99 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 66/99 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-255) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.323)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-240) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Recommended
DK	1.5	+178	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.302 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 77/106 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-247) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+182	-247	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.264)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.370 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 6/35 (17%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/81 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/40 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 31/41 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 58/81 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-240) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+178	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.405 (127 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.280
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/44 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 66/97 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-241) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 75/105 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-207) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.460 (91 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/105 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 76/105 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-271) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-260	+190	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetMGM	1.5	+210	-295	-
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+199	-271	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 74/104 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-229) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+169	-229	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+165	-220	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.400 (136 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 16 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .926
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/38 (37%) | L5 12/20 (60%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 29/53 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter Hits: 67/103 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-200) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.303)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.275 (118 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 69/101 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-211) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -211

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+157	-211	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.331)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217 (37 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 142 play(s) (A 12 | B 11 | C 119)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-325) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+225	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/85 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/43 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 31/42 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 60/85 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-325); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-297) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+208	-297	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 73/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-297); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-180) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+129	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-180); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-439) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-439); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-539) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -539

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+355	-539	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/99 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 66/99 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-539); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-351) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/99 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 66/99 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-351); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-371) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-371); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-185) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+133	-185	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-283) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-283); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-219) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-219); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-201) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-304) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-304); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-113) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 -113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-113	-122	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 48/103 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-252) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-360) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+248	-360	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Schuemann Under 0.5 (-297) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-166) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+121	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-175	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-225) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-389) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -389

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -389 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+266	-389	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-282) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/99 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-306) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/52 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 60/104 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-225) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.035
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 69/106 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-268) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/56 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 64/107 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-101) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-101	-137	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/88 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Walks: 50/88 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.85

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+116) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+116	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.121
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/46 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 46/100 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-304) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 74/98 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+136) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter Walks: 60/106 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-405) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+275	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 75/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-358) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+246	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/103 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 78/103 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-382) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-382	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-237) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-105) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-105	-132	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/97 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 22/46 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 39/97 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-419) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-325) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+225	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 27 PA | 7/24 | HR 2 | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | OPS .912
BVP walk adjustment: 0.95x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 58/83 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/41 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 33/42 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 58/83 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-303) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-410) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -410

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+279	-410	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 67/99 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wynns Under 0.5 (-572) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -572 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -572

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -572 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-319) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-278) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+195	-278	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 72/105 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-286) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-312) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-298) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-496) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -496

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+330	-496	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-446) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+300	-446	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-521) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -521 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -521

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -521 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+344	-521	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-337) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 11.0% fallback
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-206) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+148	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 68/106 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-210) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-278) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-402) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -402

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+274	-402	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-422) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-436) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-457) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-460	-
DK	0.5	+307	-457	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+330	-520	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-542) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -542 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -542

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -542 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+357	-542	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-720) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -720

Selected market: Over 17.0% / Under 83.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -720 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+456	-720	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Dezenzo Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-369) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-375) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-409) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -409

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -409 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+278	-409	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-439) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-454) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+305	-454	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-455) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-142) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+103	-142	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-210) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-322) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+224	-322	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-330) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-335) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-383) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -383

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+262	-383	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-409) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -409

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+278	-409	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-465) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -465

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (4)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-497) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -497

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+331	-497	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-538) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -538 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -538

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -538 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+354	-538	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-166) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-316) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-351) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-383) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -383

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+262	-383	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-196) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	-
DK	0.5	+140	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/101 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 30/50 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 64/101 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-459) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -459

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+308	-459	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-386) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+121) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/103 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/51 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 19/52 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 42/103 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-430) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -430

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -400; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+291	-430	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-274) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-385) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-291) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-630) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.6% / Under 81.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+375	-625	-
DK	0.5	+406	-630	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-284) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-640) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -640

Selected market: Over 18.5% / Under 81.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+408	-640	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mitch Garver Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-280) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/44 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 70/99 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-234) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+180	-250	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .593
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/100 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 68/100 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-121) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -121

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-112	-120	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .071
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/97 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 59/97 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-293) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 67/99 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-186) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+134	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 60/99 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-233) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-408) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -408

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+277	-408	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/94 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 68/94 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-267) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+188	-267	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 72/103 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-271) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/94 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/42 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/94 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-246) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/99 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 69/99 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-227) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+162	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/82 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 55/82 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-287) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/103 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 58/103 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-199) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/106 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 32/54 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 65/106 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+136) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/95 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 over 0.5 (69%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 59/95 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+107) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+115	-152	-
DK	0.5	+107	-148	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 52/106 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-194) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+139	-194	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 53/105 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+122) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.280
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/44 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 46/97 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-239) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+169	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+291) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +291 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +291

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +291 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+291	-430	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Caleb Ferguson: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 31/77 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/38 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 15/39 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 31/77 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 25.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-192) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 67/99 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-183) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+131	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/87 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 61/87 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-197) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+141	-197	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/90 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 56/90 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-204) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 67/103 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-174) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+126	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 60/98 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-275) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-275	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 27/49 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 65/101 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-276) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-237) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-187) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+134	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-341) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James McCann Under 0.5 (-461) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+309	-461	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-329) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/98 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 68/98 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+130) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+130	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/86 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/38 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 17/48 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 34/86 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-169) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+122	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/88 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 31/42 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/88 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+121) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+121	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 18/50 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 47/103 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-230) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+163	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 6/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/100 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 63/100 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-203) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+145	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/83 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/43 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 27/40 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 57/83 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-264) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .182
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/78 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/40 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 25/38 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 47/78 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+213) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +213 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +213

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/56 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 21/49 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 39/105 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-264) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+186	-264	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/101 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 73/101 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-255) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 58/102 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-248) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+176	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+114) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+114	-157	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 57 PA | 15/46 | HR 3 | K% 19.3% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.030
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 57 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 52/107 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-157) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -157

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+113	-157	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/50 under 0.5 (44%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 51/102 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-224) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+159	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 16 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .926
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+150) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+148	-200	-
DK	0.5	+150	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/101 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 18/56 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 35/101 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (+181) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +181 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +181

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/48 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 18/53 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 40/101 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+149) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+149	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/55 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 44/106 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-236) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 62/103 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+191) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +191 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +191

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 19/52 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 48/107 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-226) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/96 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 62/96 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-187) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+134	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/95 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 60/95 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (+186) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/50 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 39/104 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-300) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 64/105 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-264) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -264

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-264	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 65/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 191 play(s) (A 6 | B 44 | C 141)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-117) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.363 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.44

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup, Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-121) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.490 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-122) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (-128) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-126) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-129) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/76 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 39/76 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-142) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 12 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .083
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-144) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+107	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.484 (157 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-145) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.431 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-116) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.348 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-136) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.334 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/92 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.81 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 43/92 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-157) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.287 (13 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-126) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 51/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-143) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.472 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/107 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/55 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 60/107 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-168) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.500 (13 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-127) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 56/102 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-136) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.446, xSLG 0.732 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 56/103 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-141) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-140	+107	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-118) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.513 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 57 PA | 15/46 | HR 3 | K% 19.3% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.030
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 57 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-134) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.540 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/107 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 59/107 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-160) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.524 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-124) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-135) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.308 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 49 PA | 17/45 | HR 2 | K% 18.4% | BB% 8.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 49 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-127) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-121) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.126, xSLG 0.111 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-124) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-128	-105	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.518 (31 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/82 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 36/82 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-136) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-128	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.291 (151 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-106) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.344 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-121) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-125) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 36 PA | 8/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .553
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-116) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 37 PA | 13/35 | HR 0 | K% 13.5% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-152) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-142) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-138) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-123) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.291 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/106 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 52/106 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-129) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 55/104 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-114) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.366 (16 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Under 2.5 (-153) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.242 (27 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 33/51 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 70/106 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (-134) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-116) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.177 (59 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-153) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-128) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.301 (52 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-125) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Under 2.5 (-155) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.489 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/92 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/44 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 under 2.5 (65%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 61/92 under 2.5 (66%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-140) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-164) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-123) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Under 1.5 (-138) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Under 1.5 (-132) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+119) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.325 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/86 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/41 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 52/86 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-163) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/54 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 68/103 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.41

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/54 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 68/103 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.41

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-107) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 49/95 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-119) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.468 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.121
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 59/100 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-151) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.413 (137 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 56/105 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+120) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.277 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-164) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/105 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 59/105 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-113) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.469 (113 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+105) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.300 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-107) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.338 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+112) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.357 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-105) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.449 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-110) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.540 (138 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-119) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.498, xSLG 0.717 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+110) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.412 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-131) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 51/95 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 51/95 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-110) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.483 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/100 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 50/100 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+125) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.348 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-129) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+108) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.416 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 38/86 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 38/86 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-128) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.411 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 23/44 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 54/99 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-136) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.441, xSLG 0.635 (102 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .071
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.466 (97 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/96 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/96 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.466 (97 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/96 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/96 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-158) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.421 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/88 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 40/88 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-112) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.327 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 27 PA | 7/27 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .630
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/102 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 54/102 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-107) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.485 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/88 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/43 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 43/88 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+103) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.381 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/85 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 43/85 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+122) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+125) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+117) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.448 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+137) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.448 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-116) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.286 (62 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-118) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.227, xSLG 0.299 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/100 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/47 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 56/100 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-105) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+100) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.477 (124 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Caleb Ferguson: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/77 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 17/39 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 37/77 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+101) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.418 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-159) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	Recommended
DK	2.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.01 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/54 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 71/103 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-153) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 64/106 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 64/106 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+115) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.444 (45 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/106 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 56/106 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+115) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.392 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-163) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+121	-162	-
DK	2.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.03 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 32/47 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 65/101 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (-101) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+127) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.513 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-108) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+102) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.258 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-158) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.346 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/101 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 66/101 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Under 2.5 (-159) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Recommended
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/103 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 36/54 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 69/103 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-111) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+108) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+127) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.409 (141 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+121) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.409 (141 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+142) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.338 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 55/102 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-107) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.303 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+118) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+102) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+111) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/96 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 53/96 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.163, xSLG 0.171 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-117) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.248 (35 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/94 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/42 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 50/94 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+101) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-102) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+138) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.323 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 46/94 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 46/94 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-114) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 27 PA | 7/24 | HR 2 | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | OPS .912
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/83 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 40/83 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (-102) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+103) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.284 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/87 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 46/87 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-104) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.229 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 6/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/46 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (+106) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.416 (14 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .182
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 39/78 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 39/78 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+121) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-149) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+115	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.279 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Over 2.5 (+110) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	2.5	+110	-145	-
DK	2.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.73 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.617 (30 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 33/81 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/40 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 15/41 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 33/81 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+116) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+100) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.257 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Under 2.5 (-147) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.30 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.528 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/98 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/46 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 59/98 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-129) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.261 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 59/94 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 2.5 (+103) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 2.5 +104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Recommended
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
BetOnline	2.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	2.5	+104	-139	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.69 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.670 (91 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/53 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 20/52 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 41/105 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colby Thomas Over 1.5 (+124) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 (-108) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.329 (134 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .958
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/91 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 35/91 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James McCann Under 1.5 (-169) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+110) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-128) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-116) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+108) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.439 (123 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 33/85 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 33/85 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Rojas Under 1.5 (-161) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-176) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 64/102 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (-103) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 2.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	2.5	+100	-134	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.62 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.405, xSLG 0.553 (127 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.280
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/44 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 2.5 (53%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-129) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-130) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 (+121) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+121	-162	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.61 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.326 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 41/106 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.290 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 35/100 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/46 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 35/100 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (+116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.60 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.353 (118 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/101 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 2.5 (50%), avg 2.80 | Away Batter HRR: 16/51 over 2.5 (31%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 41/101 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Under 2.5 (-160) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+119	-159	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.538 (136 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 16 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .926
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/50 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 under 2.5 (45%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Soler Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.236 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/83 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 16/40 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 36/83 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-144) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-134) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+129) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-172) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-173	+129	-
DK	1.5	-172	+129	Selected
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+101) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-125) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-115) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Narvaez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-138) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edmundo Sosa Under 1.5 (-147) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Valenzuela Under 1.5 (-131) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-157) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (-105) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-105) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.109, xSLG 0.131 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.035
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-167) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.131 (10 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/99 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter HRR: 37/99 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eduardo Valencia Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-113) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yohendrick Pinango Under 1.5 (-134) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+111) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.50 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Base projection 2.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.556, xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 2.5 (60%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 18/53 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ K Prop — 23 play(s) (B 6 | C 17)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 4.5 (-104) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	Recommended
DK	4.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.1, proj 5.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.6%, season 19.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +9.9 ppts (recent 36.5% vs season 26.6%, proj adj +5.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (+109) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	5.5	+205	-286	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+109	-140	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Peter Lambert: K/9 8.9, proj 6.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 25.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.4%/6 hitters, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 (-165) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 4.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 4.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	Recommended
DK	4.5	+129	-165	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.77K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.57
Bubba Chandler: K/9 7.8, proj 3.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Bacon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bubba Chandler: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 30.8% | AVG .111 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 17.1%, L7 14.6%, season 19.3%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 15.4%/13 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-110) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-112	-115	-
BetRivers	3.5	-120	-112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-120	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.49K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.3, proj 3.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 78 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .324 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 12.8%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.55
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (+106) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	4.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-135	+106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.3, proj 4.2K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .188 | OPS .610
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 28.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.81
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-122) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetRivers	3.5	-113	-118	-
DK	3.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.0, proj 3.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.0% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Curveball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 53 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .340 | OPS .917
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 25.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 25.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.6% (7/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.70
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (-137) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	Recommended
DK	5.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 37.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Troy Melton: K/9 9.5, proj 7.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +9.1 ppts (recent 32.4% vs season 23.3%, proj adj +4.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Bieber Over 3.5 (-164) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	-
BetRivers	3.5	-162	+120	-
DK	3.5	-164	+128	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.33
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 37.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.8% (4/6); lineup K% 20.9% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-161) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 5.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Recommended
DK	4.5	-161	+126	Selected
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.82K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK LOWER delta -0.57
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.2, proj 5.3K over 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dexter Kelley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 227 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .325 | OPS .855
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 227 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.5%/227 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Colin Rea Over 3.5 (-105) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+105	-135	-
BetRivers	3.5	-113	-118	-
DK	3.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Colin Rea: K/9 7.1, proj 4.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 13.4% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .132 | OPS .403
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 (-168) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	-
BetRivers	4.5	+123	-165	Recommended
DK	4.5	+132	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.54K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.7% / under 59.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.83
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.0, proj 4.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: John Bacon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .961
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2%, top-6 22.9%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.9% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 5.5 (-121) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	5.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .264 | OPS .747
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 4.5 (-162) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-180	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Luis Castillo: K/9 7.3, proj 4.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 112 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.42
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-148) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.55K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gage Jump: K/9 10.2, proj 4.9K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 17.6%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Boston Red Sox 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 5.5 (-104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Griffin Jax: K/9 9.3, proj 6.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 24.2% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Rob Drake — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .130 | OPS .492
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 24.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/27 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +2.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Under 5.5 (-127) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+105	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+100	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Michael King: K/9 8.0, proj 5.1K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael King: 32 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .185 | OPS .512
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Colorado Rockies 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 21.5% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Under 5.5 (-153) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 5.12 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+107	-143	-
DK	5.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.43
Logan Henderson: K/9 10.2, proj 5.2K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.5%, L7 22.2%, season 21.1%, active roster 18.4%/6 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.88 | Season Avg 5.88
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 5.5 (-120) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
DK	5.5	-107	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.7% / under 51.3%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 7.7, proj 5.2K over 6.3 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .513
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.3%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
K% trend: support +8.2 ppts (recent 27.1% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-152) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+123	-165	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.5, proj 5.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dexter Kelley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Aaron Nola: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .749
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 17.3%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Under 6.5 (-148) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	6.5	+205	-286	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.6, proj 6.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 123 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 (+103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+105	-135	-
BetRivers	6.5	-107	-125	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gerrit Cole: K/9 10.1, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .583
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 31.1% vs season 25.9%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 6.5 (+103) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	+103	-132	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.4% / under 53.6%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.4, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .348
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 30.9% vs season 26.8%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Over 3.5 (-168) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -168

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.93 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
DK	3.5	-168	+132	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	+130	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Seth Lugo: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Cutter: 17.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .292 | OPS .854
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (B 2 | C 7)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 (-101) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-130	+100	-
DK	17.5	-132	-101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-118	-112	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.164 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Under 17.5 (-125) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-108	-122	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.400000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.98 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .056 | OPS .161
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 12.4%, L7 9.7%, season 10.2%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 17.5 (-221) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -221

Selected market: Over 64.4% / Under 35.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-205	+145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-221	+163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.441 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.4 IP (season 6.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 64.4% / under 35.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.4 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .513
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.3%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.9%, L7 6.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.4 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.94 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+137) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 18.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.38 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 18.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-
BetMGM	18.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	18.5	+135	-175	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	18.5	+121	-160	-
DK	18.5	+137	-184	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+134	-180	-
Fanatics	18.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.557 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 39.4% / under 60.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 18.38 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 227 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .325 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.5%/227 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.0%, L7 6.6%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.0%/227 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.50 | Season Avg 19.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Over 17.5 (-178) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+137	-
DK	17.5	-178	+133	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.833 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Taj Bradley: 44 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .348
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.8%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, top-6 23.7%, BVP 20.4%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.9%, L7 6.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.5%/44 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (+124) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +124

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-164	+124	-
DK	17.5	-166	+124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.313 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.50 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael King: 32 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .185 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.6%, L7 22.5%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 7.0%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.2%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 21.5% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (-107) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-125	-107	-
DK	17.5	-124	-107	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-106	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.872 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.50 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 33 PA | K% 30.3% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .194 | OPS .726
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 25.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.0%, BVP 30.3%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.8%, L7 10.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Under 17.5 (+101) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+105	-
DK	17.5	-134	+101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	-
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.97 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.1%, L7 8.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.1%/123 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Over 17.5 (-108) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 2 books | 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-130	-105	Recommended
Fanatics	16.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-108	-123	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.558999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 53 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .340 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 25.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.5%, L7 9.8%, season 11.0%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 20 play(s) (B 1 | C 19)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 (-141) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3886693649018926 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gerrit Cole: 40 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 20.7%, season 23.6%, top-6 23.9%, BVP 25.0%/40 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.9%, L7 9.6%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.0%/40 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Under 1.5 (-153) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1524471392064262 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 6.1 IP (BB% 5.0%)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.4 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .513
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.3%, L7 21.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.9%, L7 6.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Over 1.5 (-145) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7893071423667384 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 98 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .307 | OPS .894
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.4%, L7 20.6%, season 23.1%, top-6 23.3%, BVP 16.3%/98 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.7%, L7 7.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 9.2%/98 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.33 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/6 over 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Colin Rea Over 1.5 (+123) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.785882317577139 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .132 | OPS .403
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.2%, L7 7.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.0%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-134) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7582111706185206 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.1%, L7 8.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.1%/123 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Luis Castillo Over 1.5 (-185) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.8% / Under 39.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-185	+139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7429981796247482 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 60.8% / under 39.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 12.1%, L7 7.3%, season 10.2%, BVP 8.9%/112 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Henderson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+156	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3078649809394283 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.7 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 36.6% / under 63.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.5%, L7 22.2%, season 21.1% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.6%, L7 9.5%, season 6.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.88 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/8 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Under 1.5 (-141) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.309085023478441 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.87x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 20.6%, season 19.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.6%, split 6.9%, L7 5.6%, season 7.3% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Over 1.5 (-151) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-151	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.683445180617845 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 78 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .324 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 22.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 12.8%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.0%, L7 9.6%, season 9.2%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Under 1.5 (-197) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3301922820607917 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 28.2%, L7 21.1%, season 22.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.0% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Over 1.5 (-157) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.661949034682957 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.6%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.7%, L7 6.1%, season 8.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6506767263350606 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .292 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.5%, L7 8.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.6%/79 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Over 1.5 (+142) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6456880991233924 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .961
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2%, top-6 22.9%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 6.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Anthony Kay Over 1.5 (-164) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6271759359557176 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Anthony Kay: 17 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .188 | OPS .610
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 25.5%, L7 28.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.1%, L7 6.7%, season 9.9%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (+126) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6235645015607796 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.2 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 227 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .325 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.5%/227 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.0%, L7 6.6%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.0%/227 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Over 2.5 (+107) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6838261965521464 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 7.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.4 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .264 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 24.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 11.7%, L7 7.3%, season 10.6%, BVP 17.9%/67 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Under 1.5 (-129) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.421583528444746 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.2 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cal Quantrill: 33 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .207 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.3%, L7 21.1%, season 19.1%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 18.2%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.3%, L7 5.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Under 1.5 (-210) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+156	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4334723133836773 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 36.6% / under 63.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Griffin Jax: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .130 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.6%, L7 24.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.1%, L7 5.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/27 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-132) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5374654224572197 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 53 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .340 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 25.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.5%, L7 9.8%, season 11.0%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-157) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5133505661043332 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Aaron Nola: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .749
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 17.3%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 9.8%, L7 6.8%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 110 play(s) (B 6 | C 104)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+104) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 55/107 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-193) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +147; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 66/98 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-187) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.177 (59 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 71/98 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-181) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/101 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 65/101 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-170) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-175	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.344 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/49 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-146) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	Recommended
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/106 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 66/106 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-117) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-108	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.617 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/81 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/40 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 40/81 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+104) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+120) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-125) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-112	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.670 (91 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.508 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+104) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-127) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-137	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.553 (127 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.280
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-109) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-107) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.538 (136 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 16 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .926
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+129) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+117) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.385 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 39/90 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-116) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.489 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/92 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/92 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-119) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.528 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-128	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+117) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.490 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-103) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.287 (13 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-110) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.353 (118 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+104) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+119) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+106) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 12 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .083
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-109) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.524 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 43/103 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+124) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.483 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-181) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 71/103 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+132) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.717 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 36/102 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/51 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 36/102 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+127) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 57 PA | 15/46 | HR 3 | K% 19.3% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.030
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 57 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 43/107 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+111) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.413 (137 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/105 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 44/105 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+101) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/103 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 38/103 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+128) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.121
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 16/46 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+129) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/105 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 38/105 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-143) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/98 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 64/98 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+110) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.484 (157 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+106) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+110) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+123) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+112) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+142) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.500 (13 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/103 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 41/103 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-180) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (10 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 67/99 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+114) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.635 (102 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .071
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/97 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/46 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 37/97 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+119) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+118) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.469 (113 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/99 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 39/99 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+141) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+111) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.518 (31 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 29/82 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 29/82 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+121) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+107) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+110) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/92 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 13/45 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 33/92 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+107) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.472 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+119) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+113) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.732 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+127) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (97 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/96 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/48 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 36/96 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (97 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/96 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/48 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 36/96 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-158) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 65/102 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+104) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.540 (62 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+118) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-175) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.291 (151 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 62/99 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-115) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.242 (27 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-104) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/88 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 33/88 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-181) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 68/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+145) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Under 1.5 (-171) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 27 PA | 7/24 | HR 2 | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | OPS .912
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/83 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/41 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 28/42 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 55/83 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+143) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-194) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 37 PA | 13/35 | HR 0 | K% 13.5% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/88 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/43 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 33/88 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-180) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/44 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 58/99 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-175) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 59/101 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+139) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+118) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+148) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-156) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 36 PA | 8/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .553
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 62/101 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 27 PA | 7/27 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .630
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-192) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (124 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-201) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/96 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 56/96 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+150) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+150	-200	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (62 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/104 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/104 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-173) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.366 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+119) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 49 PA | 17/45 | HR 2 | K% 18.4% | BB% 8.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 49 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 15/50 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 37/104 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.111 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/103 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/52 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 36/103 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-170) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	Recommended
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/94 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/42 under 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 52/94 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 37/104 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+133) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/76 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 11/31 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 32/76 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-176) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 69/105 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-151) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 51/100 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter HR — 227 play(s) (B 25 | C 202)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-390) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-900) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0660
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.257 (65 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/106 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/106 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0824
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.381 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/85 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 78/85 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-750) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.500 (13 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-450) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.242 (27 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 15 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .883
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1279
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.416 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/86 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 76/86 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1616
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.035
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-475) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.540 (62 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/107 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/107 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2115
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (71 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2245
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.287 (13 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .952 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/98 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 79/98 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2424
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.448 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/99 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 76/99 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2424
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.448 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/99 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 76/99 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-475) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3069
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 97.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0101
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.171 (21 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/99 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 98/99 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Urias Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0319
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (53 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/94 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 91/94 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James McCann Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Dezenzo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colby Thomas Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mitch Garver Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/100 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 96/100 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.291 (151 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/99 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 99/99 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Schuemann Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0408
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/98 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 94/98 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0404
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.418 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/99 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 95/99 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0490
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/102 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/102 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0481
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/104 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/104 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (30 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/96 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/96 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.287 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/96 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 90/96 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/102 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/102 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0594
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/101 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 95/101 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0690
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 81/87 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 81/87 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0693
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.346 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/101 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 95/101 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-900) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0745
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 87/94 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 87/94 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.416 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .182
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 72/78 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 72/78 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/103 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 95/103 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 36 PA | 8/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 2.8% | OPS .553
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 36 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/101 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/101 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.361 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0842
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.513 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/95 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 87/95 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (124 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/105 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/105 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.449 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.229 (30 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 6/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1010
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1020
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.540 (138 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 2 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/101 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 90/101 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.300 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.483 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/106 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/106 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1068
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.111 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/103 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 93/103 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1299
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.377 (48 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Caleb Ferguson: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/77 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 33/39 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 68/77 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.439 (123 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/85 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 76/85 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.409 (141 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.409 (141 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1143
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.177 (59 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.317 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.348 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1446
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.236 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 71/83 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 71/83 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1237
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 37 PA | 13/35 | HR 0 | K% 13.5% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .891
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/102 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/102 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 49 PA | 17/45 | HR 2 | K% 18.4% | BB% 8.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 49 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.490 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1446
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.213 (13 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 27 PA | 7/24 | HR 2 | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | OPS .912
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/83 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 72/83 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.472 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.469 (113 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-650) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.344 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (10 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1319
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.329 (134 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .958
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/91 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 79/91 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.732 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1509
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.392 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1447
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Cavalli contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 65/76 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 65/76 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.348 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 2 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 27 PA | 7/27 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .630
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1782
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (26 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/101 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 84/101 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.484 (157 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 12 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .083
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.353 (118 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.353 (118 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .889
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-500) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.524 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.468 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.121
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1474
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1809
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (35 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/94 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 79/94 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.366 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Taj Bradley contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Taj Bradley: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1562
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (97 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/96 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 82/96 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.538 (136 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 16 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.8% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .926
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1585
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.518 (31 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Aaron Nola contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Aaron Nola: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/82 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 72/82 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (62 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1619
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.413 (137 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/105 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 90/105 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.258 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 85/104 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1856
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/97 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 79/97 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.717 (25 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1848
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/92 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 78/92 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2075
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.264 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (45 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/106 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 86/106 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1863
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/102 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/102 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-475) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2211
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.328 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1932
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/88 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 72/88 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-450) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2045
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.485 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/88 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 71/88 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Griffin Jax contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Griffin Jax: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/101 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 83/101 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.338 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/102 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/102 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2056
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (53 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 57 PA | 15/46 | HR 3 | K% 19.3% | BB% 15.8% | OPS 1.030
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 57 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/107 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 86/107 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-450) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2062
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.635 (102 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .071
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/97 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 82/97 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2093
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Slade Cecconi contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 69/86 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Pfaadt contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1957
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.489 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 3 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.833 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/92 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 76/92 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.385 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/90 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 72/90 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2170
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/106 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/106 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-450) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2245
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.528 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gage Jump contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/98 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 77/98 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2115
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Colin Rea contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Colin Rea: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/104 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 82/104 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2233
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/103 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 82/103 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-320) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2178
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.553 (127 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 13 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 23.1% | BB% 15.4% | OPS 1.280
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/97 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 75/97 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2121
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.508 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-550) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3163
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (36 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter HR: 74/98 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-370) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3208
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.906 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 22 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .785
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-375) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2762
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.339 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.670 (91 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/105 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 79/105 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-600) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2621
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.336 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/103 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 78/103 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-475) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2804
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 78/107 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3086
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.617 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 58/81 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/40 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 58/81 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Reid Detmers Under 5.5 (-162) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+110	-
DK	5.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.5%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 123 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .738
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.9%/123 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (-108) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.36 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.73, BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.6%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (+103) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 33 PA | K% 12.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .961
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 26.8%, season 24.2%, top-6 22.9%, BVP 12.1%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (+105) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.7%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (4/6); lineup K% 20.9% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/6 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 6.5 (-148) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 6.3 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-150	-
DK	6.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 7.6%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 6.3 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 13.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .292 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.9%/79 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-138) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sandy Alcantara: 227 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .325 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.1%, L7 26.5%, season 23.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.5%/227 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-110) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-120	-110	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 5.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 53 PA | K% 9.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .340 | OPS .917
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 25.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.8%, BVP 9.4%/53 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.8% (6/6); lineup K% 20.6% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Colin Rea Under 5.5 (-109) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Colin Rea: 60 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .132 | OPS .403
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.5%, L7 20.5%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 26.7%/60 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Luis Castillo Under 5.5 (+101) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-134	+101	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.6 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 112 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .765
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.7%, season 20.6%, BVP 22.3%/112 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+154) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +154

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.50
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Seattle Mariners (+160) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +160

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Justin Wrobleski xFIP 4.14
Luis Castillo xFIP 4.50
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Away SP: Luis Castillo (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ NRFI — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-150) edge 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -150

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.62, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.238, K% 30.8%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 24.3%
Logan Henderson: xFIP 3.61, K% 28.4%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.264, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.247, K% 46.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 34.0%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 80% (20 starts) | Logan Henderson: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +22.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge -13.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 7.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 7.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+112) edge 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.01, K% 24.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 23.8%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 18.0%
Jake Bennett: xFIP 3.93, K% 18.3%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.198, K% 26.5%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 23.2%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.85
NRFI rate: Gage Jump: 82% (11 starts) | Jake Bennett: 100% (10 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.269 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +2.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Griffin Jax: xFIP 3.60, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 33.9%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 32.5%
Cal Quantrill: xFIP 5.05, K% 15.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.339, whiff% 18.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (23 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Umpire: Rob Drake — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Griffin Jax: 75% (16 starts) | Cal Quantrill: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +6.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +3.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+100) edge 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +100

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Cade Cavalli: xFIP 3.39, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (94 PA): xwOBA 0.264, K% 25.5%, BB% 9.6%, whiff% 23.0%
Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.35, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.399, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.447, K% 20.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 25.0%
Washington Nationals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 108)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.98 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.82
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | Precip chance 43% -- delay/postponement risk
NRFI rate: Cade Cavalli: 73% (22 starts) | Shane Bieber: 50% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +0.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +8.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 24.4%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 20.6%
Aaron Nola: xFIP 3.98, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.249, K% 26.2%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 26.4%
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.99 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.88
Umpire: Dexter Kelley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sandy Alcantara: 82% (22 starts) | Aaron Nola: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -0.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +9.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge -1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Reid Detmers: xFIP 3.67, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.50, K% 23.8%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 23.9%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.7%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Reid Detmers: 76% (21 starts) | Peter Lambert: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 58-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -1.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +10.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge -2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.91, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.1%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 24.3%
Gerrit Cole: xFIP 3.82, K% 27.2%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 30.0%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.68 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.97
Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Weather: Wind 13 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 63% (19 starts) | Gerrit Cole: 73% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.277 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -2.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +11.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-108) edge -4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Michael King: xFIP 4.50, K% 21.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.207, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.6%
Michael Lorenzen: xFIP 4.70, K% 14.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.339, K% 22.4%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 21.1%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.86 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 1.02
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: Michael King: 86% (21 starts) | Michael Lorenzen: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 65-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -4.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +13.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge -7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Bubba Chandler: xFIP 5.06, K% 19.6%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 23.0% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 28.2%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.47, K% 15.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.241, K% 12.1%, BB% 3.0%, whiff% 16.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 1.12 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.58, SO/G 0.75
Umpire: John Bacon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bubba Chandler: 79% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -7.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +15.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-113) edge -10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.98, K% 26.4%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 14.0%, BB% 11.6%, whiff% 23.1%
Dean Kremer: xFIP 3.94, K% 23.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.451, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 99)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 0.87 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.07
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 60% (10 starts) | Dean Kremer: 33% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 21-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.316 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.221 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -10.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +18.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge -13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.95, K% 28.2%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 27.9%, BB% 15.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.46, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 18.5% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.398, K% 20.9%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 16.6%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 1.11
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Taj Bradley: 60% (20 starts) | Seth Lugo: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 61-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.437 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -13.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +22.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+112) edge -14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Justin Wrobleski: xFIP 4.14, K% 21.7%, BB% 5.0%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 19.5% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 22.5%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.9%
Luis Castillo: xFIP 4.50, K% 18.7%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 23.1% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 23.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.83
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Justin Wrobleski: 69% (16 starts) | Luis Castillo: 62% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.372 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -14.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +23.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.16, K% 16.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 19.0% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 11.8%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Colin Rea: xFIP 4.67, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 20.2% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 15.5%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 17.7%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 97)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.12
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 85% (20 starts) | Colin Rea: 76% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 1.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.16, K% 16.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 19.0% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 11.8%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Colin Rea: xFIP 4.67, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 20.2% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 15.5%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 17.7%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 97)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.12
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 85% (20 starts) | Colin Rea: 76% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-142) edge 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Justin Wrobleski: xFIP 4.14, K% 21.7%, BB% 5.0%, xwOBA 0.312, whiff% 19.5% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.349, K% 22.5%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.9%
Luis Castillo: xFIP 4.50, K% 18.7%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 23.1% | 1st inn full (69 PA): xwOBA 0.263, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 23.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.83
Park: Dodger Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Justin Wrobleski: 69% (16 starts) | Luis Castillo: 62% (16 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.372 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge -14.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +23.4%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-106) edge 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Taj Bradley: xFIP 3.95, K% 28.2%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.270, K% 27.9%, BB% 15.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Seth Lugo: xFIP 4.46, K% 19.7%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 18.5% | 1st inn full (91 PA): xwOBA 0.398, K% 20.9%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 16.6%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 1.11
Umpire: Marvin Hudson — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Taj Bradley: 60% (20 starts) | Seth Lugo: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 61-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.437 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -13.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +22.6%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Troy Melton: xFIP 3.98, K% 26.4%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.278, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.328, K% 14.0%, BB% 11.6%, whiff% 23.1%
Dean Kremer: xFIP 3.94, K% 23.6%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.331, whiff% 28.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (29 PA): xwOBA 0.451, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, whiff% 30.0%
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 99)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 100)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 0.87 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.07
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
NRFI rate: Troy Melton: 60% (10 starts) | Dean Kremer: 33% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 21-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles rakes vs Slider (xwOBA 0.316 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.221 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -10.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +18.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Bubba Chandler: xFIP 5.06, K% 19.6%, BB% 12.7%, xwOBA 0.309, whiff% 23.0% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.308, K% 28.2%, BB% 12.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Brandon Pfaadt: xFIP 4.47, K% 15.7%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.0% | 1st inn full (33 PA): xwOBA 0.241, K% 12.1%, BB% 3.0%, whiff% 16.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 105)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 1.12 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.58, SO/G 0.75
Umpire: John Bacon — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Bubba Chandler: 79% (19 starts) | Brandon Pfaadt: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -7.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +15.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-118) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Michael King: xFIP 4.50, K% 21.2%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 25.2% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.207, K% 22.4%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 23.6%
Michael Lorenzen: xFIP 4.70, K% 14.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 19.2% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.339, K% 22.4%, BB% 6.1%, whiff% 21.1%
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.86 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 1.02
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Petco Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.93)
NRFI rate: Michael King: 86% (21 starts) | Michael Lorenzen: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 65-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 22-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch) | San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge -4.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -118 | implied 54.1% | model edge +13.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Anthony Kay: xFIP 4.91, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 24.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 22.1%, BB% 3.5%, whiff% 24.3%
Gerrit Cole: xFIP 3.82, K% 27.2%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (40 PA): xwOBA 0.261, K% 30.0%, BB% 5.0%, whiff% 21.4%
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 0.68 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.97
Umpire: Roberto Ortiz — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
Weather: Wind 13 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN
NRFI rate: Anthony Kay: 63% (19 starts) | Gerrit Cole: 73% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.277 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -2.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +11.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Reid Detmers: xFIP 3.67, K% 28.0%, BB% 7.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 29.0% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 27.8%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 23.9%
Peter Lambert: xFIP 4.50, K% 23.8%, BB% 9.4%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.6% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 23.9%, BB% 7.0%, whiff% 24.7%
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.03 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.79
Park: Angel Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Reid Detmers: 76% (21 starts) | Peter Lambert: 82% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 58-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.344 vs SP's top pitch) | Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -1.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +10.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-113) edge 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -113

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Sandy Alcantara: xFIP 4.20, K% 19.3%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 24.4%, BB% 3.3%, whiff% 20.6%
Aaron Nola: xFIP 3.98, K% 24.0%, BB% 7.6%, xwOBA 0.320, whiff% 25.9% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.249, K% 26.2%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 26.4%
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.99 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.88
Umpire: Dexter Kelley — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Sandy Alcantara: 82% (22 starts) | Aaron Nola: 76% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge -0.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -113 | implied 53.1% | model edge +9.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-128) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -128

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Cade Cavalli: xFIP 3.39, K% 30.0%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.307, whiff% 26.0% | 1st inn full (94 PA): xwOBA 0.264, K% 25.5%, BB% 9.6%, whiff% 23.0%
Shane Bieber: xFIP 4.35, K% 19.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.399, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.447, K% 20.0%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 25.0%
Washington Nationals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 108)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 0.98 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.82
Umpire: Jonathan Parra — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
Weather: Wind 13 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP | Precip chance 43% -- delay/postponement risk
NRFI rate: Cade Cavalli: 73% (22 starts) | Shane Bieber: 50% (6 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.290 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +100 | implied 50.0% | model edge +0.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -128 | implied 56.1% | model edge +8.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Griffin Jax: xFIP 3.60, K% 25.4%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.343, whiff% 30.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 33.9%, BB% 6.5%, whiff% 32.5%
Cal Quantrill: xFIP 5.05, K% 15.3%, BB% 7.8%, xwOBA 0.339, whiff% 18.9% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (23 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.7%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.85
Umpire: Rob Drake — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Griffin Jax: 75% (16 starts) | Cal Quantrill: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs 4-Seam Fastball (xwOBA 0.307 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +6.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +3.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-142) edge 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Gage Jump: xFIP 4.01, K% 24.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 24.5% | 1st inn full (42 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 23.8%, BB% 2.4%, whiff% 18.0%
Jake Bennett: xFIP 3.93, K% 18.3%, BB% 5.1%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 23.2% | 1st inn full (34 PA): xwOBA 0.198, K% 26.5%, BB% 8.8%, whiff% 23.2%
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.85
NRFI rate: Gage Jump: 82% (11 starts) | Jake Bennett: 100% (10 starts)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.269 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +2.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+118) edge -13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +118

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Landen Roupp: xFIP 3.62, K% 23.1%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.285, whiff% 24.1% | 1st inn full (78 PA): xwOBA 0.238, K% 30.8%, BB% 10.3%, whiff% 24.3%
Logan Henderson: xFIP 3.61, K% 28.4%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.264, whiff% 27.7% | 1st inn full (30 PA): xwOBA 0.247, K% 46.7%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 34.0%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Landen Roupp: 80% (20 starts) | Logan Henderson: 88% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 57-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 32-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.330 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.322 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +22.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge -13.0%

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -131 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -131 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model run margin: +0.7 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+6.63/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 6.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Taj Bradley (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Seth Lugo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 101)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 97 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 33% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Colorado Rockies (+187) edge 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +200 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +187

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +187 with 18.2% edge (EV $+47.85/$100)
Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 71.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -115 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Moneyline	Colorado Rockies	+187	33.3%	51.5%	+18.2%	$+47.85	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (Moneyline) +18.2%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +187 with 18.2% edge (EV $+47.85/$100)
Home SP: Michael King (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 71.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 20.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -115 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-118	50.8%	65.4%	+14.6%	$+20.84	6	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+154	37.1%	50.2%	+13.0%	$+27.38	9	Bet on DK
A	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-146	55.7%	68.1%	+12.4%	$+14.82	6	Bet on DK
B	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-140	54.8%	63.3%	+8.5%	$+8.55	6	Bet on DK
C	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	Seattle Mariners	+160	36.2%	44.4%	+8.2%	$+15.37	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

B Under 5.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +14.6%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Gage Jump xFIP 4.01
Jake Bennett xFIP 3.93
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Gage Jump (LHP)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 ML) +13.0%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Michael King xFIP 4.50
Michael Lorenzen xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael King (RHP)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)

A Under 5.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 Total) +12.4%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
F5 model: 4.3 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Troy Melton xFIP 3.98
Dean Kremer xFIP 3.94
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 99)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 0.96, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN
Home SP: Troy Melton (RHP)
Away SP: Dean Kremer (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 Total) +8.5%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Justin Wrobleski xFIP 4.14
Luis Castillo xFIP 4.50
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Away SP: Luis Castillo (RHP)

C Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +8.2%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Justin Wrobleski xFIP 4.14
Luis Castillo xFIP 4.50
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 107)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Away SP: Luis Castillo (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

Game	Time (ET)	Away SP	Home SP	Signal Score	Signal	Signal Result
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Colin Rea	Michael McGreevy	8.2/10	YRFI MODEL	C Lean Signal - Derisked

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

MODEL SIGNAL YRFI Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals — Score 8.2/10 C Lean Signal - Derisked

Michael McGreevy: xFIP 4.16, K% 16.7%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.355, whiff% 19.0% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.399, K% 11.8%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 16.8%
Colin Rea: xFIP 4.67, K% 18.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 20.2% | 1st inn full (71 PA): xwOBA 0.315, K% 15.5%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 17.7%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 97)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 105)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.12
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Michael McGreevy: 85% (20 starts) | Colin Rea: 76% (17 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.264 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -20.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +29.4%

▼ Why no model signal? (12 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Landen Roupp / Logan Henderson	7.1 / 7.7	2.9 / 7.7	+22.1%	Score 7.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Griffin Jax / Cal Quantrill	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+6.0%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (23 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied)
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Gage Jump / Jake Bennett	4.7 / 7.7	5.3 / 7.7	+6.4%	Score 4.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara / Aaron Nola	4.6 / 7.7	5.4 / 7.7	-0.5%	Score 4.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -0.5% < 8% required
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Reid Detmers / Peter Lambert	4.4 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	-1.7%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -1.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Cade Cavalli / Shane Bieber	4.4 / 7.7	5.6 / 7.7	+0.8%	Score 4.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 0.8% < 8% required
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay / Gerrit Cole	4.3 / 7.7	5.7 / 7.7	-2.7%	Score 4.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -2.7% < 8% required
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King / Michael Lorenzen	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-4.1%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.1% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 1 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler / Brandon Pfaadt	4.0 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-7.0%	Score 4.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.0% < 8% required
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton / Dean Kremer	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-10.0%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (29 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied)
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Taj Bradley / Seth Lugo	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-13.6%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -13.6% < 8% required
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Justin Wrobleski / Luis Castillo	2.9 / 7.7	7.1 / 7.7	-14.3%	Score 2.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.3% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 227 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=227
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Strong HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	2	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	39.2%	25.8%	+13.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	4	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	38.1%	22.0%	+16.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	2	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	37.3%	16.4%	+20.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	3	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	36.9%	27.1%	+9.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	4	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	36.8%	19.7%	+17.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	2	Anthony Kay (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.7%	23.2%	+13.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	35.5%	24.6%	+10.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	1	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.2%	23.2%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	34.5%	29.1%	+5.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	3	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	33.9%	20.8%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	1	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.5%	19.7%	+13.8%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	4	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.4%	19.7%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.4%	19.7%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	3	Sandy Alcantara (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.2%	17.1%	+16.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	2	Colin Rea (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.7%	18.8%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	2	Aaron Nola (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	32.3%	20.8%	+11.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+240	-	31.6%	27.2%	+4.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	6	Griffin Jax (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.6%	17.9%	+13.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	4	Gerrit Cole (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	31.2%	24.3%	+6.9%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	2	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	31.2%	22.0%	+9.1%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	92.9%	-1302	CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews, Daylen Lile	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| Wind 13 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| Precip chance 43% -- delay/postponement risk \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	92.4%	-1218	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Pete Alonso, Riley Greene	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	91.1%	-1020	Ben Rice, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 13 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	100	90.8%	-985	Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Jac Caglianone	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	90.1%	-909	Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Walker, Ian Happ	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	100	89.2%	-830	Junior Caminero, Jake Burger, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	87.1%	-672	Bryce Harper, Kyle Stowers, Bryan De La Cruz, Griffin Conine	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	86.8%	-655	Brandon Lowe, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Ryan O'Hearn	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	85.7%	-601	Manny Machado, Hunter Goodman, Jackson Merrill, Ty France	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	84.3%	-537	Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Josh Lowe, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	84.1%	-530	Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Julio Rodriguez	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	83.3%	-500	Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Wilyer Abreu, Nick Kurtz	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	100	82.3%	-466	Rafael Devers, Brice Turang, Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 \| Wind 11 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Strong HR Chance Byron Buxton — Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (+260) HR chance 39.2% | edge +13.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.309, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.283, TB/G 2.22
Statcast: barrel 17.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/111.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 23/81 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0298, xFIP 4.46, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.354, xERA 5.44, whiff 18.5%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.705, K% 0.0% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.081, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.326 (260 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Kody Clemens — Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (+325) HR chance 38.1% | edge +16.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.196, OPS 0.787, ISO 0.245, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 12.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/108.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/92 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0298, xFIP 4.46, K% 18.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.354, xERA 5.44, whiff 18.5%
BvP vs SP: 3 HR, OPS 2.833, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.793, ISO 0.249 (285 PA)

Best HR Chance Seiya Suzuki — Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals (+475) HR chance 37.3% | edge +20.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.200, OPS 0.824, ISO 0.208, TB/G 1.79
Statcast: barrel 10.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.424
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 18/90 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0306, xFIP 4.16, K% 16.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.355, xERA 5.48, whiff 19.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.089, K% 0.0% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.764, ISO 0.192 (289 PA)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (+240) HR chance 36.9% | edge +9.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.276, OPS 0.915, ISO 0.260, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.502
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/105 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0350, xFIP 5.48, K% 13.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.339, xERA 4.93, whiff 18.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.884, ISO 0.265 (333 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.670, xwOBA 0.460 (91 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals (+375) HR chance 36.8% | edge +17.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.262, OPS 0.938, ISO 0.275, TB/G 2.14
Statcast: barrel 11.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.9/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.474
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 25/103 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0539, xFIP 4.60, K% 16.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.26, whiff 23.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 1.004, ISO 0.304 (306 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.336, xwOBA 0.286 (50 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Strong HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox (+300) HR chance 36.7% | edge +13.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.307, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.310, TB/G 2.19
Statcast: barrel 15.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.522
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 30/101 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 4.91, K% 18.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.34, whiff 24.4%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.844, ISO 0.250 (149 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.363, xwOBA 0.333 (40 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

⚠ Wind 13 mph IN (N) -- run total DOWN

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+275) HR chance 35.5% | edge +10.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.206, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.244, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.481
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/97 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0346, xFIP 4.50, K% 20.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.42, whiff 23.1%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.071, K% 71.4% (14 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.240 (284 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance James Wood — Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals (+300) HR chance 35.2% | edge +12.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.280, OPS 0.954, ISO 0.284, TB/G 2.14
Statcast: barrel 22.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.1/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.603
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 29/107 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0539, xFIP 4.60, K% 16.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.26, whiff 23.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.063, OPS 1.008, ISO 0.308 (331 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.394, xwOBA 0.287 (49 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+900	0.6%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+1100	0.6%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+1200	0.7%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+1000	1.2%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Cold recent HR form
Jung Hoo Lee	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+1100	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+900	1.3%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Cold recent HR form
Daulton Varsho	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+500	1.3%	Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+900	1.3%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+900	1.4%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+500	1.6%	Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Wind 12 mph IN (NNW) -- run total DOWN

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Landen Roupp	Logan Henderson	0.82	17.7%	48.3%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Gage Jump	Jake Bennett	1.00	16.7%	46.5%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Justin Wrobleski	Luis Castillo	0.97	15.9%	45.1%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Reid Detmers	Peter Lambert	0.98	15.7%	44.8%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Michael King	Michael Lorenzen	0.85	14.3%	42.0%	11.2%	+3.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler	Brandon Pfaadt	0.96	13.2%	40.0%	7.4%	+5.8%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara	Aaron Nola	0.88	13.0%	39.4%	10.8%	+2.1%
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Griffin Jax	Cal Quantrill	0.94	10.8%	34.7%	7.6%	+3.1%
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Michael McGreevy	Colin Rea	0.93	9.9%	32.8%	7.7%	+2.2%
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Taj Bradley	Seth Lugo	0.95	9.2%	31.2%	5.1%	+4.1%
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Anthony Kay	Gerrit Cole	1.00	8.9%	30.5%	4.9%	+4.1%
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Troy Melton	Dean Kremer	0.91	7.6%	27.1%	4.5%	+3.1%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	Cade Cavalli	Shane Bieber	1.02	7.1%	26.0%	7.9%	-0.7%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

32 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	67.7	63.0	75.5	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	65.9	66.9	69.5	3	Slider (52% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	64.9	65.8	69.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	62.3	61.8	66.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	60.3	57.1	68.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	57.5	66.8	51.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	57.3	49.1	69.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	57.1	52.1	65.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	56.2	51.1	63.0	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	55.0	57.2	54.0	4	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	54.9	49.3	62.0	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.7	57.1	54.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	53.3	56.2	53.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Caleb Ferguson	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	52.4	43.6	59.5	4	Cutter (26% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	51.8	54.6	47.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	51.6	69.4	36.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 24.2%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.2	44.9	57.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	50.4	59.9	42.0	6	Split-Finger (43% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	49.6	45.8	53.0	6	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	49.5	50.7	49.0	6	Slider (26% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.0	43.0	50.0	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	46.4	52.4	43.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.3	44.1	46.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	44.9	40.3	51.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	41.8	40.4	41.0	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	40.4	46.6	32.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	36.9	34.0	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 12.4%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	35.5	38.1	27.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	35.3	37.7	30.5	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	33.8	37.6	28.5	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	32.8	36.4	30.0	7	Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	28.7	47.2	8.0	6	Curveball (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

32 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	15.7%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	L	24.1%	4.0	5.2	5.0	67	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	L	30.6%	5.4	5.8	6.0	91	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dean Kremer	Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	5.4	5.3	5.5	91	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	18.3%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	L	17.8%	4.3	4.8	4.7	72	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Caleb Ferguson	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.9%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians	R	26.5%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	R	33.2%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	R	17.4%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	R	14.4%	4.7	4.8	4.7	79	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	26.4%	5.5	6.0	6.0	92	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.8%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.7%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	L	28.0%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	L	21.8%	6.6	6.4	6.5	111	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	19.3%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	R	28.4%	5.0	4.8	5.0	84	short	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	28.2%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	29.5%	4.3	4.5	4.5	72	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	R	27.2%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	R	24.0%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.6%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.2%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	23.1%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	18.7%	5.6	5.2	5.3	94	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.7%	6.1	5.7	5.8	102	deep	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	R	25.4%	5.4	4.5	4.7	91	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	15.3%	4.4	4.2	4.9	74	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	R	19.4%	5.3	5.1	5.3	89	normal	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	30.0%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	20.4	2.9	16.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.94 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Under	Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Over	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Under	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.9%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.6%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

196 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	3.21	1.22	1.21	0.79	3.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.99	1.20	0.74	1.05	3.10 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.88	1.22	0.84	0.82	2.90 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryan De La Cruz	Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.74	1.53	0.66	0.55	2.50 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Alec Burleson	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.72	1.20	0.63	0.89	2.47 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.67	1.14	0.80	0.73	2.75 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.64	1.11	0.82	0.71	2.66 / Over	0.30	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dillon Dingler	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.61	1.06	0.65	0.91	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ryan O'Hearn	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.60	1.03	0.65	0.92	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brandon Lowe	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.58	1.00	0.73	0.85	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Garcia Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.58	1.46	0.57	0.55	2.63 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bryan Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.56	1.04	0.79	0.73	2.32 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Kurtz	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.50	0.93	0.75	0.82	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.49	1.00	0.81	0.68	2.15 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.48	1.06	0.65	0.76	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dylan Crews	Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.48	1.31	0.54	0.62	2.10 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
JJ Wetherholt	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.47	1.12	0.89	0.45	2.32 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.44	1.03	0.68	0.72	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.42	1.01	0.66	0.74	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jonathan Aranda	Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.41	1.14	0.60	0.67	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kevin McGonigle	Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.39	1.19	0.81	0.39	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.38	1.03	0.82	0.53	2.13 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.38	1.15	0.58	0.64	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.37	0.93	0.72	0.71	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ivan Herrera	Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.33	1.22	0.53	0.58	2.10 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 7 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

NRFI/YRFI Model Signal Detail

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes