MLB Bets 2026-07-26

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	323W–194L–0P	62%	-22.44 u	Last 14 days • 517 settled
Grade A	21W–18L–0P	54%	-1.02 u
Grade B	302W–176L–0P	63%	-21.42 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2350W–1635L–8P	59%	-153.34 u	All-time • 3993 settled
Grade A	229W–168L–0P	58%	+3.97 u
Grade B	2121W–1467L–8P	59%	-157.31 u

159 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter H+R+RBI	Pete Alonso	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Hits	Geraldo Perdomo	1.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Hits	Salvador Perez	1.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-286	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-348	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	-298	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-298	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Andrew Vaughn	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	-223	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ben Williamson	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Braden Montgomery	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Brady House	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams	0.5	-249	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-407	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Cam Smith	0.5	-285	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-323	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Casey Schmitt	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-467	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Chase DeLauter	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Colby Thomas	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-333	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Corbin Carroll	0.5	-243	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-473	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Davis Schneider	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-210	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Dominic Smith	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Dylan Crews	0.5	-234	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Edouard Julien	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-519	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	-286	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-516	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-206	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	-246	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Gary Sanchez	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	George Springer	0.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-463	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Isaac Paredes	0.5	-211	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	JJ Bleday	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jackson Chourio	0.5	-342	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jacob Wilson	0.5	-414	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-327	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-454	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jake Cronenworth	0.5	-214	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-465	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jonny Deluca	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jorge Polanco	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-351	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jose Ramirez	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-451	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-366	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-279	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Kyle Karros	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Kyle Manzardo	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Lane Thomas	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Luis Rengifo	0.5	-367	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-395	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-522	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-414	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-507	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Noelvi Marte	0.5	-522	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-318	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-387	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Romy Gonzalez	0.5	-469	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ryan Vilade	0.5	-329	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Starling Marte	0.5	-508	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-326	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Tommy White	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Travis Bazzana	0.5	-276	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Tristan Peters	0.5	-301	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Ty France	0.5	-382	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-360	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-266	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Willson Contreras	0.5	-277	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Wilyer Abreu	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Jeffrey Springs	3.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Jose Soriano	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Kohl Drake	3.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	K Prop	Walker Buehler	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Earned Run	Connor Prielipp	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	0.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Earned Run	Parker Messick	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jose Soriano	5.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Leahy	5.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Carson Whisenhunt	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Cristopher Sanchez	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Jacob Misiorowski	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Kohl Drake	2.5	-199	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Freeland	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Parker Messick	1.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Reynaldo Lopez	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Ronel Blanco	1.5	-197	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Ronel Blanco	2.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Pitcher Walks	Walker Buehler	1.5	-188	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Total	Over	7.0	-117	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Greene	5.5	-159	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hunter Greene: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-25	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-132	-	LOSS	-1.000	Shota Imanaga: 4.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-25	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-153	-	LOSS	-1.000	Eury Pérez: 2.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-25	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-110	-	WIN	+0.909	Dylan Cease: 12.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang	1.5	-155	-	WIN	+0.645	Brice Turang: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	460	57%	-1.32u	54	57%	+1.41u	215	59%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	408	58%	+10.95u	51	49%	-7.18u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	143	55%	-2.76u	5	60%	+0.33u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	808	73%	-7.28u	181	77%	+1.78u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	419	57%	-11.64u	90	50%	-14.13u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	300	59%	-16.47u	60	58%	-3.75u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	39	77%	+3.28u	2	50%	-0.62u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	110	46%	-13.67u	7	57%	-0.13u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	52	39%	-10.59u	2	50%	-0.07u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	4	75%	+1.10u	3	100%	+2.10u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	509	51%	-53.48u	25	64%	+3.20u	75	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 460, 14d N 54	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 408, 14d N 51	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 143, 14d N 5	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 2 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 39, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 119 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 110, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 52, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 4 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 4, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 6 actionable / 221 total candidate(s); season N 509, 14d N 25	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 221 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 759 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 320 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 738 pitcher(s), 3251 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 562 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 21 team(s), 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1454 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 189 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2786 market side(s) checked \| 2786 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 7 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 221 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 11 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 395 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 62 \| batter pitch-type 562 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 269 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	+104	-125	+1.5 (-215)	-1.5 (+176)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+129)	+1.5 (-156)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	-112	-107	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+122	-147	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	+108	-131	+1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	+157	-192	+1.5 (-126)	-1.5 (+104)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	-150	+124	-1.5 (+109)	+1.5 (-131)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	+104	-126	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+134	-162	+1.5 (-150)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 10.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+150)	+1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+278	-356	+1.5 (+135)	-1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-184)	-1.5 (+152)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+166)	+1.5 (-202)	O/U 7.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+149)	+1.5 (-181)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	+158	-193	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

8 Grade A | 119 Grade B | 886 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 8 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge	K Prop	Kohl Drake Over	DIA@NAT	1:36 PM	3.5	6.3	-125	Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 \| best price	78.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft Over	CUB@PIR	1:36 PM	5.5	8.2	-158	Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -130 \| best price	48.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams Over	DIA@NAT	1:36 PM	1.5	2.9	-130	DK Over 1.5 -130 \| exact	92.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -152	Batter H+R+RBI	Brice Turang Over	ROC@BRE	2:11 PM	1.5	2.8	-152	BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 \| best price	84.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin Over	BRA@ORI	1:36 PM	1.5	2.7	-139	DK Over 1.5 -139 \| exact	80.1%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2	Batter H+R+RBI	Pete Alonso Over	BRA@ORI	1:36 PM	1.5	2.7	-128	DK Over 1.5 -128 \| exact	78.0%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1	Batter H+R+RBI	Elly De La Cruz Over	RED@CAR	2:16 PM	1.5	2.6	-134	DK Over 1.5 -134 \| exact	75.6%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -156	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker Over	RED@CAR	2:16 PM	1.5	2.6	-156	BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 \| best price	71.6%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (16 play(s))

K Prop - Jeffrey Springs Over

Projection: 5.0Displayed: Over 4.5 +131Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.62Recommended: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.62 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.62

Batter Hits - Salvador Perez Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter H+R+RBI - Jared Young Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 1.5 +131Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -144Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Ronel Blanco Over

Projection: 6.8Displayed: Over 5.5 +127Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 4.93Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +115 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.93 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 4.93

K Prop - Jose Soriano Over

Projection: 5.7Displayed: Over 5.5 +125Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.75Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

K Prop - Luinder Avila Over

Projection: 4.6Displayed: Over 4.5 +125Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.79Recommended: BetRivers Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.79

Pitcher Outs - Framber Valdez Under

Projection: 17.4Displayed: Under 18.5 -141Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.93Recommended: DK Under 18.5 -141 | exactOwn-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.93 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.93

Pitcher Earned Runs - Emmet Sheehan Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Paul Goldschmidt Under

Projection: 0.9Displayed: Under 1.5 -270Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Kevin McGonigle Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - William Contreras Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Andrew Vaughn Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Gabriel Rincones Jr. Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Liam Hicks Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 1.5 +149Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Torkelson Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Kohl Drake Over 3.5 (-125) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 78.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kohl Drake: K/9 8.5, proj 6.3K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 32.2% | put-away% 27.6% | xwOBA 0.359 | top pitch: Changeup (57% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Merzel — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.4%, L7 21.6%, season 21.4%, lineup 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 0/6; weighted K% 22.4%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 67%; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; lineup K% 21.4% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge -- A risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-158) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-161	+124	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	Recommended
DK	5.5	-158	+124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	5.5	-145	+110	-
BetRivers	6.5	+123	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 48.3% vs 17% min; cushion +2.66K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.7, proj 8.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 73 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .265 | OPS .712
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 21.7%, L7 26.5%, season 21.8%, active roster 22.0%/7 hitters, BVP 26.0%/73 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-130) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-140	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.518 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 60/101 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.4 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-152) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 58/98 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -152 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-139) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.575 (26 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/81 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/43 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 49/81 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.47
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-128) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.481 (59 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.458
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/105 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 57/105 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.2 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-134) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/40 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/44 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 50/84 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1 -- A-grade risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-156) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.510 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 0/12 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 63/102 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.51
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -156 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (119 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-141) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 20.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jose Soriano Under 5.5 (-114) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .238 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.5%, L7 26.6%, season 21.0%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Over 0.5 (-247) diff 207.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 66.8% / Under 33.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -247 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.5366394853649412 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 66.8% / under 33.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 27 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .217 | OPS .557
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 25.9%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.0%, L7 7.9%, season 8.3%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (4/6); lineup K% 21.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-247); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 1.5 (-142) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.441093386082929 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.1 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 65 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .484
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 15.4%/65 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.2%, L7 8.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.2%/65 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6); lineup K% 18.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 (-174) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-174	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1036244964754895 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .312 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.2%, L7 27.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 12.5%, L7 10.8%, season 10.2%, BVP 11.1%/18 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Ronel Blanco Over 1.5 (-197) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-197	+147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.101359603959703 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 62.1% / under 37.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.8%, L7 8.9%, season 8.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-197) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-156) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.9104448001947936 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.1 IP (BB% 4.3%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .431
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.8%, L7 19.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 7.8%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.8%/52 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Carson Whisenhunt Over 1.5 (-174) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.067195185278657 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.3%, L7 23.8%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 9.6%, season 8.6% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/2 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-174) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-195) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-195	+145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0447849324859284 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 61.8% / under 38.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.1%, L7 28.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 10.0%, L7 6.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 23.1%/13 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-195) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-143) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.0724441225591324 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.8 IP (BB% 4.5%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 19.4 outs/6.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 54 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .220 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 22.2%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.5%, L7 6.2%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.4%/54 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-115) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9168138880897803 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.3%, L7 7.3%, season 7.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Freeland Under 1.5 (-121) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.0893885292483416 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.1 IP (BB% 4.7%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 84 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .317 | OPS .977
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/84 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.5%, L7 9.4%, season 10.6%, BVP 5.9%/84 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kohl Drake Under 2.5 (-198) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8913232368863997 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 37.8% / under 62.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.4%, L7 21.6%, season 21.4%, lineup 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.4%, L7 9.5%, season 9.0% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 21.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-198); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 0.5 (-178) diff 120.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-178	+133	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-155	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.69 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.09, ERA 1.80)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 27 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .217 | OPS .557
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 25.9%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (4/6); lineup K% 21.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 (-151) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-151	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.80)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 28.4%, L7 17.6%, season 22.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/13 (85%) | Season 11/13 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-136) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.03 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.56, ERA 2.70)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .243 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.0%, L7 21.2%, season 19.0%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-166) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-166	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.37 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.10, ERA 4.34)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 128 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .212 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.3%, L7 21.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.1%/128 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-143) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.34 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.28, ERA 4.09)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .431
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.8%, L7 19.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

▸ Batter Hits — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-271) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+170	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-217	+164	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
DK	1.5	+199	-271	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.210)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.196 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .535
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 8/36 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/49 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 41/49 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Hits: 83/98 under 1.5 (85%), avg 0.82

⚠ Recent form: L10 22% + L5 16% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-230) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -230

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+171	-230	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.232)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 4/34 (12%) | L5 1/18 (6%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/51 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Hits: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 81/101 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.81

⚠ Recent form: L10 12% + L5 6% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 93 play(s) (B 93)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.4% / Under 82.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -700 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+443	-700	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-519) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -519

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+343	-519	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-519) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-416) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+282	-416	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-416) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-400) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+272	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-348) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter Walks: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-348) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-474) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -474

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+317	-474	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/91 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 74/91 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-474); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-541) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -541 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -541

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -541 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+356	-541	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-541); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-435) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -435 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -435

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -435 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+294	-435	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/98 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 36/47 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 79/98 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-435); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-536) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -536

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -536 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+340	-560	-
DK	0.5	+353	-536	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/95 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/95 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-536) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-321) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-316) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/105 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 82/105 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-316); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-349) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+241	-349	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/105 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 82/105 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-349); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-345) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+238	-345	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/105 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 82/105 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-345); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-317) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+221	-317	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 25 PA | 8/25 | HR 1 | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .960
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/96 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 75/96 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-317) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-351) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-351) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-405) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/96 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 72/96 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-405); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-321) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-468) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+314	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.65x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 6/17 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .977
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/94 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 65/94 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-468); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-473) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+316	-473	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 5.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .885
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/99 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-473); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-298) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-298); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-328) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+228	-328	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-328) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-414) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -414

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+281	-414	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-414); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-400) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+272	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 79/103 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-266) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+187	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 3 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 72/99 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-266); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-516) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -516 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -516

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -516 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+342	-516	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/92 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 68/92 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-516); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-308) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 70/100 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-308); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-551) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -551 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -551

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -551 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+362	-551	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 70/100 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-551); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-522) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -522

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+345	-522	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 70/100 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-522); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-434) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -434

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+293	-434	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/90 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 67/90 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-434) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-332) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-368) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-368); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-375) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/102 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 77/102 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-374) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+256	-374	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-374); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-423) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+287	-423	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/98 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 67/98 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-423) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+303	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-395) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -395 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+270	-395	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-395); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Romy Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-469) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+314	-469	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-469); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-332) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-304) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-304); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-246) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+174	-246	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-246); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-323) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/101 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-323); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-314) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+219	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-314) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-507) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -507

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+336	-507	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-507); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-206) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+148	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-206); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-286) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+201	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-286); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-269) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+190	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-269); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-276) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-276); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-237) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-237); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-396) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/97 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 67/97 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-396); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-387) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+265	-387	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/104 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 78/104 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-387); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-277) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.273
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 30/45 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 60/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-277); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-382) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+262	-382	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-382) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-214) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-214) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-367) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-367) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-233) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+166	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-233); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-322) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+224	-322	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-322); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-256) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/88 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 23/40 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/88 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-256); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-230) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-288) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-288); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-342) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-342); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-266) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .839
BVP walk adjustment: 1.08x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 68/97 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-266); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-244) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+173	-244	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/83 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/42 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 59/83 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-244) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-366) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+251	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 68/102 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-366); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-346) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+239	-346	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-346); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-329) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+241	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-351) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/81 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/41 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/40 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 56/81 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-351) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-243) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 60/101 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50

⚠ Heavy juice (-243); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-326) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+226	-326	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Heavy juice (-326); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-361) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+249	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-285) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-285) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-384) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+262	-384	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-384) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-271) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .348
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/101 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 66/101 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-321) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/48 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 60/100 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Heavy juice (-321); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-210) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 72/96 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 72/96 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-210); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-223) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-234) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-234); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-364) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -364 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+250	-364	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-364); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-218) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+155	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-218); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-286) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+201	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-286); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-356) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -356

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -356 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+245	-356	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-356); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-335) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-414) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -414

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -414 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+281	-414	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-414) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-332) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colby Thomas Under 0.5 (-393) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+268	-393	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-393) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-348) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-211) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-211	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 62/99 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-211) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-109) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-127	-109	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-301) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-301) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-298) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-298) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-244) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/74 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 20/29 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 48/74 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Heavy juice (-244); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-249) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 71/101 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-249); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-295) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 66/98 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-295) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

▸ F5 Total — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-115) edge 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-118	-102	-
BetUS	3.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	3.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	-118	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Drew Rasmussen xFIP 3.28
Parker Messick xFIP 3.56
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 123 (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-114) edge 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 5.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-115	-
BetUS	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	5.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	5.5	-114	-114	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-110	-111	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Connor Prielipp xFIP 4.13
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.84
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP)
Away SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-118) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-102	-
BetOnline	3.5	-125	+105	-
BetUS	3.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	3.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-110	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-115	-106	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.1 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Jacob deGrom xFIP 3.10
Logan Gilbert xFIP 3.47
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 101)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
Away SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-144) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5) | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	5	-111	-110	-
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-144	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.29
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.53
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 97 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-131) edge 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers New York Mets 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -131

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetRivers New York Mets 1.5 -124 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (26)

[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+11.85/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 9.2% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -131 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Emmet Sheehan (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 95 (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 115 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Los Angeles Dodgers strong offense (wRC+ 115)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -2.758u

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -126

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -122 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.7 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+9.36/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.0% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.8% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 111 (team 99)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -2.758u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (886 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 215 play(s) (A 4 | B 49 | C 162)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-126) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.380 (28 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/102 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 51/102 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-138) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.419, xSLG 0.499 (15 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/83 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 42/83 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-132) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.197, xSLG 0.208 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-126) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/93 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.57 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 50/93 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 20% + L5 0% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+103) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.197, xSLG 0.208 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+108) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 55/100 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+111) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/51 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 55/100 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-154) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-154	+116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/52 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 67/101 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-123) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.475 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-132) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/49 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/100 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-118) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/49 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 59/100 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-143) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-143	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (-113) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-122) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 61/103 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-116) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/93 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 48/93 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-115) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.255 (36 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 32/52 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 59/104 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-113) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.271 (53 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 59/104 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-142) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 31 PA | 6/29 | HR 1 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .637
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/102 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 33/52 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.63 | Day Batter HRR: 56/102 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-142) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-125) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.137 (12 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.273
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/96 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 51/96 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-138) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.377 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-135) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.236 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-156) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-150) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-121) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.413 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-120) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.493 (68 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/104 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 53/104 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-120) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/99 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-124) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.195, xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 3 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-128) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.518 (30 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/80 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/39 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 35/80 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-110) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.242 (69 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-124) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/92 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/41 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 48/92 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-128) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.290 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/105 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-128) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.321 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-128) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-113) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-116) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.313 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .850
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-114) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.176 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/81 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 18/40 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 40/81 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-111) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-168) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.215 (19 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 42/101 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+131) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-119) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/96 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 23/46 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 41/96 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-162) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-162	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-146) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-126) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (-129) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-120) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (-116) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-114) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-133) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+100	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.196, xSLG 0.268 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .535
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-113) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-125) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.397 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 28 PA | 8/26 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 28 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 58/105 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-164) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-164	+124	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.370 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .839
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/97 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/54 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 53/97 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (-116) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.307 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 21 PA | 5/20 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/90 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/45 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 42/90 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-115) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.441 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/99 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 57/99 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-138) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-102) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.388, xSLG 0.574 (41 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.54 | Day Batter HRR: 51/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-139) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.362 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 59/104 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.451 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.12

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-133) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.440 (31 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/86 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 42/86 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Pages Over 1.5 (+125) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Recommended
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-159) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -159; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-159	+119	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/45 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 54/98 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+103) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.551 (18 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/100 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 54/100 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-105) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.324 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-140) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.267 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-128) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.382 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+106) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.224 (23 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/100 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 53/100 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-111) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.385 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-108) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.324 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 53/100 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 53/100 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-152) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.382 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 56/103 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-115) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.306 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/88 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 27/43 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 50/88 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-139) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-108) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.321 (46 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 2.5 (-167) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	2.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	2.5	+120	-159	-
DK	2.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Under 2.5 (-155) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.69 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-121) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-112) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.381 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/96 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 53/96 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-104) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.464 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 5.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .979
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.397, xSLG 0.584 (40 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 6/17 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/94 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 54/94 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-109) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.522 (48 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-104) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.275 (43 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/85 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/40 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 45/85 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-101) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/88 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 19/40 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 44/88 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-154) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-160	+118	-
DK	1.5	-154	+116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 59/104 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-112) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (-101) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-101) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.617 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Under 2.5 (-131) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.83 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+110) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | 1/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .243
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-114) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.373 (18 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .348
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+103) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (-108) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-114) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Recommended
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.397, xSLG 0.556 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/98 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 48/98 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+104) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.274 (61 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+107) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.100, xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .885
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+127) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-162) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	Recommended
DK	1.5	-162	+122	Selected
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-112) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.270 (76 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-169) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.347 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/99 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 65/99 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+128) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.304 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 2.5 (+117) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+117	-155	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 3.00 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.59
Base projection 2.59 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.385 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 2.5 (49%), avg 2.81 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 2.5 (40%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 47/105 over 2.5 (45%), avg 2.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-105) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.337 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Soler Over 1.5 (-109) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.242 (35 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/81 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 15/39 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 35/81 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+107) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.301 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+123) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/95 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 48/95 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+113) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luisangel Acuna Over 1.5 (+135) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+101) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.352 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+105) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	-102	-132	-
DK	2.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.88 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.62
Base projection 2.62 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.566 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/53 over 2.5 (60%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 17/51 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+100) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+134) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.444 (36 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/84 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 38/84 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+109) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-114) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-112) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .343
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+106) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-103) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/102 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 54/102 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.129, xSLG 0.180 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-113) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 41/100 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-113) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/98 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 43/98 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Under 2.5 (-142) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+107	-140	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.509 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/51 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 38/50 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 71/101 under 2.5 (70%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+104) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-103) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-104) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.218 (38 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/98 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 49/98 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+128) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.343 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 53/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+101) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.373 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/74 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-106) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colby Thomas Over 1.5 (+106) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Recommended
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-149) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.282 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/92 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 58/92 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-151) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+115	-
DK	1.5	-151	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+107) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-118) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+109) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-116) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-125) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-110) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-170) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+121) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (-101) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+111) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adrian Del Castillo Over 1.5 (-104) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-146) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.287 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/99 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/46 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 64/99 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+111) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.179, xSLG 0.233 (26 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 25 PA | 8/25 | HR 1 | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .960
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/96 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 43/96 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-127) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-132) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-138) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-138	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 58/97 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Under 1.5 (-167) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+128	-180	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-123) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Under 1.5 (-166) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-145) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-145) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-137) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-112	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Trevino Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.291 (27 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/104 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 42/104 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-137) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	Recommended
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 15 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/96 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/44 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 under 2.5 (46%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 51/96 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/97 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 41/97 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Locklear Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alika Williams Over 1.5 (+118) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-143) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.253 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/95 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 under 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter HRR: 55/95 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-153) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 62/104 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-135) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 62/104 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Under 1.5 (-161) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-125) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Amed Rosario Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-160	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-113) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-108) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Logan O'Hoppe Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Rincones Jr. Under 1.5 (-171) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 4 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Under 1.5 (-137) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Byron Buxton Under 2.5 (-127) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-104	-129	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.45 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.384 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/80 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/39 under 2.5 (54%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/41 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 47/80 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Under 1.5 (-136) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nelson Velazquez Under 1.5 (-164) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 33/83 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 33/83 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-109) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-117) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joe Mack Over 1.5 (+129) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Under 1.5 (-178) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-139) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Under 1.5 (-172) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 2.5 (+107) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	+103	-137	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 2.5 (49%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 16/49 over 2.5 (33%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 41/100 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-148) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Harry Ford Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/83 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/41 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 50/83 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-106) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-111) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-128) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-130) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 27 play(s) (B 9 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-118) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	8.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	8.5	-105	-127	Recommended
Bovada Direct	8.5	-110	-120	-
DK	8.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.5K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 23.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.97K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 13.5, proj 10.5K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.0% | put-away% 32.2% | xwOBA 0.221 | top pitch: Curveball (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 27 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .217 | OPS .557
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 25.9%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.4% (4/6); lineup K% 21.7% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.30 | Season Avg 9.11
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+100) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.3, proj 6.6K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .314 | OPS .903
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 23.9%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-151) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-133	+103	-
BetRivers	5.5	-124	-108	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-151	+118	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.4, proj 6.5K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.1%, L7 29.0%, season 22.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (+104) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	6.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	6.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.12K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.9, proj 7.6K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 142 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .248 | OPS .742
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 142 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.5%, L7 21.0%, season 22.3%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters, BVP 27.5%/142 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Parker Messick Over 4.5 (-130) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-104	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Parker Messick: K/9 8.4, proj 5.1K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 23.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .243 | OPS .552
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.0%, L7 21.2%, season 19.0%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Over 4.5 (-160) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	-
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
DK	4.5	-160	+125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 8.3, proj 5.1K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .312 | OPS .889
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.2%, L7 27.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/23 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 (-165) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-143	+108	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.9, proj 3.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 65 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .484
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 15.4%/65 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6); lineup K% 18.7% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 22.6% vs season 18.7%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 (+131) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.62 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+119	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetRivers	4.5	+130	-175	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 7.4, proj 5.0K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 48 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .453
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-155) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-159	+118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-155	+122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.4% / under 42.6%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.5, proj 4.9K over 5.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.9 outs/6.0 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .651
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 20.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.4% (4/6); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.40
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 5.5 (+127) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +115 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.93 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +115 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +127; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+115	-160	Recommended
BetMGM	4.5	-185	+135	-
BetRivers	4.5	-165	+123	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+127	-162	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 22.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.26K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Ronel Blanco: K/9 8.9, proj 6.8K over 5.2 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 38.5% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.388 | top pitch: Curveball (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 20.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 8.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-162) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.93K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Walker Buehler: K/9 8.0, proj 3.6K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.9% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.1%, L7 28.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 (+104) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.5, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 28.4%, L7 17.6%, season 22.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.46
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Over 4.5 (+110) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -167 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -167 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.75K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Will Warren: K/9 8.3, proj 5.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 69 PA | K% 36.2% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .440
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 22.9%, L7 29.0%, season 23.9%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 36.2%/69 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 29.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 22.4%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (-103) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 7.21 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-175	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	7.5	-103	-130	-
DK	7.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	7.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 15.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.13K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.1, proj 8.6K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 19.4 outs/6.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 54 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .220 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 22.2%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 7.19
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-126) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	3.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.7, proj 3.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .809
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 21.6%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 16.9% (4/6); 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 (+118) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	7.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	7.5	+118	-159	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+125	-165	-
DK	7.5	+118	-150	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+128	-164	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.5K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob deGrom: K/9 11.5, proj 8.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.6% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 128 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .212 | OPS .685
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 128 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.3%, L7 21.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.1%/128 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.74
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 (+101) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.4, proj 4.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .156 | OPS .385
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.7%, L7 19.6%, season 19.7%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.5% (4/6); lineup K% 18.5% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 25.8%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 (-126) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-118	-110	-
BetRivers	4.5	-113	-118	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.9, proj 4.9K over 4.8 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 125 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .296 | OPS .814
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 30.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 12.0%/125 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-139) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	5.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.39K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.6, proj 5.1K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 146 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .757
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 146 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.7%, BVP 19.9%/146 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 (+123) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	-
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	-
BetRivers	4.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.3, proj 4.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Rasmussen: 52 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 5.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .431
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.8%, L7 19.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 19.2%/52 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.0 ppts (recent 17.8% vs season 24.8%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 4.5 (-104) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-106	-125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 7.1, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 12.0% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 35.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.3%, L7 23.8%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/2 (0%) | L10 0/2 (0%) | L20 0/2 (0%) | Season 0/2 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/2 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+125) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
BetMGM	5.5	+150	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+136	-179	-
DK	5.5	+125	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.86
Jose Soriano: K/9 9.0, proj 5.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .238 | OPS .590
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.5%, L7 26.6%, season 21.0%, active roster 18.6%/6 hitters, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 18.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Under 4.5 (-115) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	4.5	+107	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-111	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.6% / under 50.4%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Leahy: K/9 7.4, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .747
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 20.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.16
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Luinder Avila Over 4.5 (+125) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetRivers	3.5	-155	+116	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-172	+134	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.83
Luinder Avila: K/9 8.4, proj 4.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Luinder Avila: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.6%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/19 (21%) | Season 4/19 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-150) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Shane Baz: K/9 8.5, proj 5.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (7/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (+112) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+113	-
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-158	+124	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Janson Junk: K/9 6.8, proj 3.5K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.9% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Freeland Over 4.5 (+111) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kyle Freeland: K/9 8.1, proj 4.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 84 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .317 | OPS .977
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/84 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/19 (32%) | Season 6/19 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.37
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 146 play(s) (B 6 | C 140)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+129) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+129	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/104 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter Walks: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 59/104 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+111) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +111

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+111	-153	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.82
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/93 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 over 0.5 (70%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 58/93 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (-118) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-118	-117	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 18/50 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 46/101 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+106) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	-
DK	0.5	+106	-146	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 15 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS 1.150
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/44 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 46/96 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-116) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-116	-119	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.77
Base projection 0.77 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter Walks: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 56/105 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-145) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+105	-145	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .850
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 59/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-104) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.86
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/86 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/42 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Walks: 49/86 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-406) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-359) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+247	-359	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adrian Del Castillo Under 0.5 (-356) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -356

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+245	-356	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-341) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 5.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/98 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 70/98 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-332) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+230	-332	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 73/99 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-380) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/98 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 67/98 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-299) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+209	-299	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 21 PA | 5/20 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .536
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/90 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 65/90 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-468) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+313	-468	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/100 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 67/100 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-319) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+221	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 73/98 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-364) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -364

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+250	-364	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-438) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -438

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -438 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+295	-438	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-404) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-361) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+248	-361	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-311) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-146) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -146

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+106	-146	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-292) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-275) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+194	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-457) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+307	-457	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-322) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+224	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-355) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+244	-355	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-388) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -388

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+265	-388	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-302) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-396) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-319) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/90 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/44 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 66/90 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-229) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/80 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/39 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 56/80 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-201) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+147	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-439) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+296	-439	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-480) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+320	-480	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-345) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -345

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -345 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+238	-345	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+273	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/104 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-269) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+189	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/51 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 32/49 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 65/100 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-268) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 64/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+109) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+115	-152	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/53 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 44/104 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-278) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-278	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/104 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/104 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-464) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -464

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -464 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+311	-464	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-259) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+183	-259	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-332) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-339) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+235	-339	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-444) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+299	-444	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-192) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+173) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +173

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+173	-245	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.458
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 42/105 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-306) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/98 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 77/98 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-318) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+221	-318	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-213) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+152	-213	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Dezenzo Under 0.5 (-338) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-372) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-290) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-446) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -446

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+300	-446	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-340) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Schuemann Under 0.5 (-341) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-268) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+188	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 67/99 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+123) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/54 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 21/49 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 39/103 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+103) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +103

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
DK	0.5	+103	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter Walks: 50/104 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-224) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-212) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-164) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+118	-164	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-320) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-320	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-142) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+102	-142	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-473) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -473

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -473 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+316	-473	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-630) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.6% / Under 81.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+407	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-660) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -660 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -660

Selected market: Over 18.0% / Under 82.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -660 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+423	-660	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-434) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -434

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+293	-434	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-347) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+240	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-406) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-251) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | 1/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .243
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/97 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 65/97 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (+105) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
DK	0.5	+105	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/51 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 52/101 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-361) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+249	-361	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-273) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/99 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 74/99 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+130) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 5.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .979
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/48 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 22/50 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 39/98 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-173) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+127	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+125	-173	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/100 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/50 under 0.5 (44%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 50/100 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-372) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/99 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/99 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-224) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+159	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .343
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/96 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-273) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/97 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-206) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/88 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 31/43 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 54/88 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-217) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 24/45 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 53/98 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-373) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+255	-373	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-286) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+201	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-187) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+134	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-432) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -432

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-432	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-244) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -244

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+173	-244	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-329) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-454) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+305	-454	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-347) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-502) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+333	-502	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-467) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -467 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -467

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -467 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+313	-467	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-294) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-325) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-392) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+267	-392	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-253) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+179	-253	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/85 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 28/40 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 60/85 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-274) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/97 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 67/97 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-293) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 62/95 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/47 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 62/95 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-207) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/104 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-305) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/49 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-243) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+185	-260	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/100 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/100 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-298) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+195	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+209	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/38 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 29/46 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 50/84 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-307) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/95 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 23/45 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 57/95 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-192) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+138	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 66/98 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+150) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+150	-211	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 20/52 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 44/102 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+140) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/54 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 50/105 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-219) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/104 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-491) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -491

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+327	-491	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/104 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-209) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+149	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/100 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 66/100 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-585) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -585

Selected market: Over 19.6% / Under 80.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+381	-585	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/100 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 66/100 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-280) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 4.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/48 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 58/97 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-188) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/81 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 26/39 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 56/81 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-189) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+136	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 63/104 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-249) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-225) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-292) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eliezer Alfonzo Under 0.5 (-381) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+261	-381	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-315) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/83 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 48/83 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-216) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/83 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/42 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 48/83 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-220) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/93 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 64/93 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+149) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+149	-209	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/53 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 42/105 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-243) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-216) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-206) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-240) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.2% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-194) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+139	-194	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 66/104 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-235) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/84 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/40 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 51/84 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-201) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/80 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/39 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 53/80 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+158) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/99 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/50 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 22/49 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 36/99 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+157) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +157

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 28 PA | 8/26 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .857
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 28 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 19/52 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 48/105 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-217) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+162	-225	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-112) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-123	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-300) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Outman Under 0.5 (-222) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+161	-225	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-323) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+225	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-241) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+171	-241	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/81 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 23/38 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 50/81 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-265) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/96 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 63/96 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-243) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/96 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 63/96 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (+128) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+128	-178	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.9% (walk adj 1.30x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 36/104 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/53 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 21/51 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 36/104 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-206) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+147	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-242) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+172	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.41x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 0/12 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 29/48 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 72/102 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-169) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/101 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/51 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/50 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 54/101 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-242) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+171	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71 | Day Batter Walks: 52/103 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+153) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +153

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/92 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/41 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 36/92 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-155) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+112	-155	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 31 PA | 6/29 | HR 1 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .637
BVP walk adjustment: 0.91x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (+118) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	-
DK	0.5	+118	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.0% (walk adj 1.29x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 36/104 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/49 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 36/104 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 119 play(s) (B 4 | C 115)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-182) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .343
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/96 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 66/96 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-171) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/96 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 64/96 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-195) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-174) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.566 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/104 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.36

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 67.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+116) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (-133) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/80 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 40/80 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (-103) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.385 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 54/105 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-101) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+113) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/84 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 41/84 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+144) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.574 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+141) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 39/98 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-121) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/100 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 49/100 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+109) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (28 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 39/102 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+115) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/96 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 41/96 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+117) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/98 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 43/98 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-101) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (26 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/81 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 13/38 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 34/81 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+109) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (59 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.458
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/105 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 43/105 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+104) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-109) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 0/12 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+128) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/42 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+111) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.255 (36 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-125) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.509 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 42/101 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-110) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 15 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/93 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 40/93 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 1.5 (+146) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-159) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/100 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 64/100 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+114) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (31 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/86 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 32/86 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+113) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 28 PA | 8/26 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 28 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.475 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/95 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/50 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 37/95 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+129) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.273
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+116) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+110) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (58 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/102 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 42/102 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+129) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.307 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 21 PA | 5/20 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/90 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 13/45 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 32/90 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+102) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.236 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+117) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 31 PA | 6/29 | HR 1 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .637
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+122) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 50/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-183) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (27 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-134) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	1.5	-140	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-108) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+113) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+132) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/98 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 48/98 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-196) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/102 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 67/102 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+146) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.617 (36 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/97 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 15/46 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 37/97 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+123) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.499 (15 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 33/83 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-135) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.215 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+143) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 41/100 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/100 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .839
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/97 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 40/97 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-140) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .535
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/98 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 34/49 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 66/98 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+122) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 3 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.11x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/99 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 36/99 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+128) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+120) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+124) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.556 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+137) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 6/17 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/94 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/46 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 36/94 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+134) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+108) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.518 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 27/80 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/39 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 27/80 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+127) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 40/92 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-108) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adrian Del Castillo Over 1.5 (+142) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+109) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+141) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.381 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 40/96 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+139) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.441 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 45/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+132) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (69 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+131) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+144) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-187) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+139	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/100 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 68/100 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-166) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 66/103 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+127) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (53 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+153) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-203) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+152	-203	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+127) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.321 (46 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/104 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/51 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 34/104 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+107) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-181) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+146) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-114) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+144) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/88 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 37/88 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+149) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+149	-199	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/93 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 35/93 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+102) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/99 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/99 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+107) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+133) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+146) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.373 (18 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .348
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/101 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/53 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/101 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/102 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 36/102 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+139) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/88 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 42/88 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/102 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 37/102 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-178) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 69/104 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-103) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-183) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-184) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 60/102 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-187) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-193	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.290 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 67/105 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.176 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 28/81 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 14/40 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 28/81 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+142) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+137) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-172) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.493 (68 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/104 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 70/104 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-177) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 63/102 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/103 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 68/103 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+142) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+131) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.321 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/97 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 36/97 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 (-158) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+121	-
DK	17.5	-158	+119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.275999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 142 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .248 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.5%, L7 21.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 27.5%/142 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.9%/142 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.78 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.78 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 18.5 (-141) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.93 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 17.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-195	+140	-
Fanatics	17.5	-225	+155	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-
BetOnline	18.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+105	-145	-
DK	18.5	+107	-141	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.433 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.29 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.93 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Framber Valdez: 73 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 20.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.7%/73 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.1%, split 5.2%, L7 5.5%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.5%/73 PA (adj 0.83x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/20 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Over 17.5 (-163) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	-
DK	17.5	-163	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	-
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.45 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.10 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 128 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .212 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.3%, L7 21.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.1%/128 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.9%/128 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 19.5 (+102) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 -132 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 19.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 19.36 | selected line 19.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 19.5 at 6 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 -132 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 19.5 +102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	18.5	-132	-102	Recommended
BetMGM	19.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	19.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	19.5	-108	-122	-
DK	19.5	+102	-136	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	19.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	19.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.555 vs line 19.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 19.36 | selected line 19.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 54 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .220 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 22.2%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.5%, L7 6.2%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.4%/54 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 19.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 18.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 19.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-128) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-127	-108	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.422 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .243 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.0%, L7 21.2%, season 19.0%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.2%, L7 7.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 5.1%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+109) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+113	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.857 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .314 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 23.9%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.2%, split 6.7%, L7 6.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 1.1%/87 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.50 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jose Soriano Under 17.5 (-116) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-114	-118	-
DK	17.5	-114	-116	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	-
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.276 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.71 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .238 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.5%, L7 26.6%, season 21.0%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 7.4%, season 6.7%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.50 | Season Avg 16.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+131) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +131

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	17.5	-170	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-170	+127	-
DK	17.5	-175	+131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.343 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.3%, L7 7.3%, season 7.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-101) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 4.5%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 19.4 outs/6.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 54 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .220 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 22.2%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-126) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	-105	-126	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 10.4%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 65 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .484
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 15.4%/65 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6); lineup K% 18.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-126) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .314 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 23.9%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Over 6.5 (+115) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-150	-
DK	6.5	+115	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 7.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.36 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 4.7%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 84 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .317 | OPS .977
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/84 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.60 | Season Avg 6.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jameson Taillon Under 5.5 (-137) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 125 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .296 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 30.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 12.0%/125 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (+120) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.18 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.58, BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 146 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.7%, BVP 19.9%/146 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (-109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-167) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Recommended
DK	5.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 73 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .265 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 26.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.0%/73 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 (-103) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-103	-128	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.22 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.58, BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 48 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .453
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-113) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.890544528066752 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Parker Messick: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .243 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.0%, L7 21.2%, season 19.0%, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.2%, L7 7.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 5.1%/39 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 (+134) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8836222443839554 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 39.9% / under 60.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 28.4%, L7 17.6%, season 22.7% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.2%, L7 8.1%, season 9.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 (-138) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.16146027004874 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.3%)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 142 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .248 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.5%, L7 21.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 27.5%/142 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.9%/142 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-162) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1196735349783578 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 146 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.7%, BVP 19.9%/146 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 12.1%, L7 8.2%, season 10.2%, BVP 10.3%/146 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 (-135) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.324795594749547 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 128 PA | K% 28.1% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .212 | OPS .685
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.3%, L7 21.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.1%/128 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.9%/128 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (+123) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.659686015933701 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 20.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.9%, L7 7.5%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.0%/40 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 (-140) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.34124778492346 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.84x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .314 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 23.9%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.2%, split 6.7%, L7 6.6%, season 8.0%, BVP 1.1%/87 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jeffrey Springs Over 1.5 (-167) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6474924647519713 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 48 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .453
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.6%, L7 9.0%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.2%/48 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-177) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.264847273504757 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 5.3 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .238 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.5%, L7 26.6%, season 21.0%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 7.4%, season 6.7%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jameson Taillon Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6313236948946206 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 125 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .296 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 30.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 12.0%/125 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.5%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 7.2%/125 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Erick Fedde Over 1.5 (-157) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6303837540653807 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .809
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 21.6%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.0%, L7 6.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ranger Suarez Under 1.5 (-178) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3781799982413523 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .156 | OPS .385
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.7%, L7 19.6%, season 19.7%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 8.5%, L7 4.9%, season 7.3%, BVP 8.3%/36 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (4/6); lineup K% 18.5% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Braxton Ashcraft Under 1.5 (-137) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4493179779044427 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.3 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 73 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .265 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 26.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.0%/73 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.7%, L7 11.6%, season 11.1%, BVP 4.1%/73 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-107) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5410793703129615 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 69 PA | K% 36.2% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 26.1%, split 22.9%, L7 29.0%, season 23.9%, BVP 36.2%/69 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 6.3%, season 7.8%, BVP 8.7%/69 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (+100) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.461229526526913 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.1%, L7 29.0%, season 22.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.1%, L7 10.0%, season 8.4% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5113528592789374 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.1%, L7 11.1%, season 9.3%, BVP 0.0%/11 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-161) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 5.59)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.1%, L7 29.0%, season 22.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 1.5 (-146) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.82 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.58, ERA 3.81)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 19.4 outs/6.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 54 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .220 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.1%, L7 27.0%, season 24.2%, BVP 22.2%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-148) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 2.58)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Leahy: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 23.7%, L7 20.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.04 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.29, ERA 3.17)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .156 | OPS .385
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.7%, L7 19.6%, season 19.7%, top-6 20.5%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (4/6); lineup K% 18.5% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-143) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 4.32)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reynaldo López: 18 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .312 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.2%, L7 27.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 33.3%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-109) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.44 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 5.74)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 125 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .296 | OPS .814
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.3%, L7 30.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 12.0%/125 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-159) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.25, ERA 4.94)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 73 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .265 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 26.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.0%/73 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Over 2.5 (-115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-115	-115	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.90 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 4.48)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.7% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Under 2.5 (-175) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.32 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.47, ERA 3.36)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 142 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .248 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.5%, L7 21.0%, season 22.3%, BVP 27.5%/142 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-138) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.66)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 69 PA | K% 36.2% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 26.1%, split 22.9%, L7 29.0%, season 23.9%, BVP 36.2%/69 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 (-163) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+122	-163	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.1 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.85 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 7.09)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 48 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .453
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.4%, L7 22.1%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 2.5 (+113) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.06 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 6.23)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 18.2%/11 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Over 2.5 (-107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.27 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 6.80)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Walker Buehler: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | AVG .300 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.1%, L7 28.0%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.5%, BVP 7.7%/13 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-123) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.71, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .238 | OPS .590
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.5%, L7 26.6%, season 21.0%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 (-141) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.72 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 7.20)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kyle Freeland: 84 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .317 | OPS .977
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/84 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kohl Drake Over 2.5 (-124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.14)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.4%, L7 21.6%, season 21.4%, lineup 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 21.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/1 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (-122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 4.09)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 3.85)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .809
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 21.6%, top-6 16.9%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 16.9% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-106) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 3.98)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andrew Abbott: 65 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .190 | OPS .484
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.4%, BVP 15.4%/65 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.4% (5/6); lineup K% 18.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Whisenhunt Under 2.5 (-127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 3.95)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.3%, L7 23.8%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-112) Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-118	-112	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.26 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.10)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 1.1% | AVG .314 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.5%, L7 23.9%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-115) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-115	-115	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.52 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 5.34)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 146 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .225 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.5%, top-6 20.7%, BVP 19.9%/146 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Paul Goldschmidt Under 1.5 (-270) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+198	-270	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-176) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-229) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-198) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+155	-205	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-222) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-175) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andrew Vaughn Under 1.5 (-237) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+175	-237	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-220) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 7/39 (18%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 38/50 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 77/101 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-272) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+200	-272	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.279 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 77/101 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-229) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/50 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 74/104 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-258) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 0/12 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 72/102 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Byron Buxton Under 1.5 (-249) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.269)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/35 (26%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/80 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/39 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 31/41 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 57/80 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-212) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -212 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -212 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+158	-212	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.416 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 70/100 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-260) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+191	-260	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.237 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .839
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 7/34 (21%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 68/97 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-267) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.306)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/100 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 68/100 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-241) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.325)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.395 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 16/36 (44%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 67/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-205) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+152	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.326)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/98 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/45 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 59/98 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-237) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Recommended
DK	1.5	+176	-237	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.331)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.217 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 60/101 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-101) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7 -101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 6.5 -135 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7 +101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7	-102	-	-
BetRivers	7	-108	-	-
BetUS	7	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-110	-	-
DK	7	-101	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-102	-	-
LowVig	7	+101	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	7	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.28)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-124) edge 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 7 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -124

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 7 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-120	-	Recommended
BetOnline	7	-125	-	-
BetRivers	7	-120	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-125	-	-
DK	7	-124	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-122	-	-
LowVig	7	-123	-	-
MyBookie	7	-122	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob deGrom elite xFIP (3.10)
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-112) edge 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 8 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-109	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
DK	7.5	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-106	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-
BetRivers	8	+100	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ranger Suarez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kevin Gausman (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 98 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Ranger Suarez elite xFIP (3.29)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-114) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-120	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	5.5	-130	+100	-
FanDuel	5.5	-114	-114	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-114	-107	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.65
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.21
Washington Nationals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 129 (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)
Away SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.6% (7 books)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+260) edge 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +260

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.09
Kyle Freeland xFIP 4.19
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Away SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+154) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5) | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: draftkings +154

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.29
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.53
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 97 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Freddy Peralta: xFIP 4.26, K% 22.7%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.303, whiff% 26.8% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.262, K% 31.1%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 33.1%
Emmet Sheehan: xFIP 3.93, K% 26.1%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 30.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 36.0%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 35.2%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Freddy Peralta: 71% (21 starts) | Emmet Sheehan: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.331 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +22.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -13.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.09, K% 39.0%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.221, whiff% 38.0% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 50.0%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 39.2%
Kyle Freeland: xFIP 4.19, K% 19.9%, BB% 4.7%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.342, K% 16.7%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 24.1%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 1.01
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 79% (19 starts) | Kyle Freeland: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +13.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -4.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-115) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.25, K% 27.9%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.292, whiff% 26.6% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 33.3%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 27.4%
Jameson Taillon: xFIP 4.67, K% 22.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.336, K% 20.6%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 21.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 105)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.11
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 75% (20 starts) | Jameson Taillon: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +10.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -1.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-166) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -166

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.28, K% 22.4%, BB% 4.3%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 23.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 28.9%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 23.3%
Parker Messick: xFIP 3.56, K% 23.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.280, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (73 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 28.8%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 22.4%
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.72 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.48
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Drew Rasmussen: 79% (19 starts) | Parker Messick: 90% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -166 | implied 62.4% | model edge +9.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +130 | implied 43.5% | model edge -0.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-162) edge 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -162

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Ranger Suarez: xFIP 3.29, K% 27.3%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.306, K% 31.4%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 26.0%
Kevin Gausman: xFIP 3.87, K% 23.3%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 27.3% | 1st inn full (97 PA): xwOBA 0.332, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 24.3%
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.83
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Ranger Suarez: 71% (17 starts) | Kevin Gausman: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -162 | implied 61.8% | model edge +7.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +126 | implied 44.2% | model edge +1.4%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-111) edge 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Carson Whisenhunt: xFIP 4.39, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (8 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 37.5%, BB% 12.5%, whiff% 26.7%
José Soriano: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.0%, BB% 11.0%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 31.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 27.6%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 28.6%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: José Soriano: 71% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-154) edge 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -154

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Jacob deGrom: xFIP 3.10, K% 31.1%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 34.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.402, K% 30.0%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 29.1%
Logan Gilbert: xFIP 3.47, K% 28.1%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 30.2% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, whiff% 33.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 101)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Jacob deGrom: 53% (19 starts) | Logan Gilbert: 55% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 67-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 34-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge +5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge +3.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Cristopher Sánchez: xFIP 2.58, K% 26.2%, BB% 4.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 31.4% | 1st inn full (92 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 20.6%, BB% 2.2%, whiff% 30.5%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.94, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 97)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.16 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Cristopher Sánchez: 76% (21 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.305 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +7.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -2.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Janson Junk: xFIP 4.40, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 17.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.340, K% 10.9%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 9.9%
Walker Buehler: xFIP 4.33, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 19.9% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.267, K% 26.2%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.6%
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.99 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Janson Junk: 77% (13 starts) | Walker Buehler: 80% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -2.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +11.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+102) edge -5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Erick Fedde: xFIP 4.81, K% 17.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 18.3% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.392, K% 23.4%, BB% 2.1%, whiff% 23.8%
Ronel Blanco: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.5%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.388, whiff% 38.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 66.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 22.2%
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 100)
Houston Astros confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 130 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.68 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.69
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Erick Fedde: 42% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.305 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +14.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+126) edge -5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +126

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Miles Mikolas: xFIP 4.65, K% 10.6%, BB% 4.8%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 15.5% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 19.4%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Kohl Drake: xFIP 4.21, K% 22.6%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 32.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.179, K% 25.0%, BB% 25.0%, whiff% 57.1%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 0.76
Umpire: Dan Merzel — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Miles Mikolas: 78% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.398 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +126 | implied 44.2% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -162 | implied 61.8% | model edge +14.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Connor Prielipp: xFIP 4.13, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.318, whiff% 22.8% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 21.4%
Jeffrey Springs: xFIP 4.84, K% 18.2%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.379, K% 17.3%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 17.8%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.08
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Connor Prielipp: 62% (13 starts) | Jeffrey Springs: 50% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 46-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -6.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +16.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Shane Baz: xFIP 4.25, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.318, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (92 PA): xwOBA 0.373, K% 20.6%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 17.1%
Reynaldo López: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.7%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.338, whiff% 23.3% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 15.7%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 21.1%
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.07 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.88
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 60% (20 starts) | Reynaldo López: 30% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -11.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +20.3%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.29, K% 19.0%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.319, whiff% 21.1% | 1st inn full (95 PA): xwOBA 0.335, K% 17.9%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 17.2%
Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.53, K% 21.6%, BB% 11.9%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 17.3%, BB% 13.5%, whiff% 19.8%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.99
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Framber Valdez: 70% (20 starts) | Luinder Avila: 46% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 34-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -12.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +21.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.12, K% 20.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 27.6%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Andrew Abbott: xFIP 4.74, K% 20.1%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 22.8% | 1st inn full (99 PA): xwOBA 0.344, K% 18.2%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 1.04
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Kyle Leahy: 79% (19 starts) | Andrew Abbott: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -14.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.2 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Kyle Leahy: xFIP 4.12, K% 20.1%, BB% 8.1%, xwOBA 0.349, whiff% 21.5% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.290, K% 27.6%, BB% 11.8%, whiff% 26.1%
Andrew Abbott: xFIP 4.74, K% 20.1%, BB% 10.4%, xwOBA 0.329, whiff% 22.8% | 1st inn full (99 PA): xwOBA 0.344, K% 18.2%, BB% 14.1%, whiff% 18.8%
St. Louis Cardinals confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.84 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 1.04
Umpire: Gabe Morales — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Kyle Leahy: 79% (19 starts) | Andrew Abbott: 52% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.295 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -14.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +23.2%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 23% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Framber Valdez: xFIP 4.29, K% 19.0%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.319, whiff% 21.1% | 1st inn full (95 PA): xwOBA 0.335, K% 17.9%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 17.2%
Luinder Avila: xFIP 4.53, K% 21.6%, BB% 11.9%, xwOBA 0.334, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (52 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 17.3%, BB% 13.5%, whiff% 19.8%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 0.99
Umpire: Brian O'Nora — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Framber Valdez: 70% (20 starts) | Luinder Avila: 46% (11 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 34-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.306 vs SP's top pitch) | Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.257 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -12.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +21.6%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 22% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Shane Baz: xFIP 4.25, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.318, whiff% 21.4% | 1st inn full (92 PA): xwOBA 0.373, K% 20.6%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 17.1%
Reynaldo López: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.7%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.338, whiff% 23.3% | 1st inn full (51 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 15.7%, BB% 9.8%, whiff% 21.1%
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 114 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 1.07 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.40, SO/G 0.88
Umpire: Sean Barber — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Shane Baz: 60% (20 starts) | Reynaldo López: 30% (10 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 35-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -11.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +20.3%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 20% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Connor Prielipp: xFIP 4.13, K% 23.9%, BB% 8.5%, xwOBA 0.318, whiff% 22.8% | 1st inn full (60 PA): xwOBA 0.295, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 21.4%
Jeffrey Springs: xFIP 4.84, K% 18.2%, BB% 8.4%, xwOBA 0.335, whiff% 22.6% | 1st inn full (98 PA): xwOBA 0.379, K% 17.3%, BB% 13.3%, whiff% 17.8%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.08
Umpire: Chad Fairchild — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Connor Prielipp: 62% (13 starts) | Jeffrey Springs: 50% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 46-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.250 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -6.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +16.0%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-130) edge 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Erick Fedde: xFIP 4.81, K% 17.1%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 18.3% | 1st inn full (47 PA): xwOBA 0.392, K% 23.4%, BB% 2.1%, whiff% 23.8%
Ronel Blanco: xFIP 4.17, K% 23.5%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.388, whiff% 38.5% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (3 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 66.7%, BB% 0.0%, whiff% 22.2%
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 100)
Houston Astros confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 130 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.68 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.69
Umpire: Mark Ripperger — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone)
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Erick Fedde: 42% (12 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.305 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +14.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-162) edge 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -162

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Miles Mikolas: xFIP 4.65, K% 10.6%, BB% 4.8%, xwOBA 0.344, whiff% 15.5% | 1st inn full (36 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 19.4%, BB% 5.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Kohl Drake: xFIP 4.21, K% 22.6%, BB% 8.6%, xwOBA 0.359, whiff% 32.2% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (4 PA): xwOBA 0.179, K% 25.0%, BB% 25.0%, whiff% 57.1%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 126 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 0.76
Umpire: Dan Merzel — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Miles Mikolas: 78% (9 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.398 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.297 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +126 | implied 44.2% | model edge -5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -162 | implied 61.8% | model edge +14.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Janson Junk: xFIP 4.40, K% 17.2%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 17.9% | 1st inn full (55 PA): xwOBA 0.340, K% 10.9%, BB% 9.1%, whiff% 9.9%
Walker Buehler: xFIP 4.33, K% 19.7%, BB% 9.7%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 19.9% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.267, K% 26.2%, BB% 10.0%, whiff% 22.6%
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.99 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.44, SO/G 0.91
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Janson Junk: 77% (13 starts) | Walker Buehler: 80% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.276 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -2.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +11.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Cristopher Sánchez: xFIP 2.58, K% 26.2%, BB% 4.5%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 31.4% | 1st inn full (92 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 20.6%, BB% 2.2%, whiff% 30.5%
Will Warren: xFIP 3.94, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 36.0%, BB% 5.3%, whiff% 26.0%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 97)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 1.16 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 0.79
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Cristopher Sánchez: 76% (21 starts) | Will Warren: 74% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.305 vs SP's top pitch) | Philadelphia Phillies rakes vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.321 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +1.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +7.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+120) edge 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Jacob deGrom: xFIP 3.10, K% 31.1%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.291, whiff% 34.6% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.402, K% 30.0%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 29.1%
Logan Gilbert: xFIP 3.47, K% 28.1%, BB% 5.3%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 30.2% | 1st inn full (88 PA): xwOBA 0.338, K% 33.0%, BB% 3.4%, whiff% 33.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 101)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 105 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.84
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
NRFI rate: Jacob deGrom: 53% (19 starts) | Logan Gilbert: 55% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 67-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 34-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.312 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -154 | implied 60.6% | model edge +5.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +120 | implied 45.5% | model edge +3.2%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-115) edge 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -115

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Carson Whisenhunt: xFIP 4.39, K% 18.4%, BB% 9.1%, xwOBA 0.358, whiff% 23.8% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (8 PA): xwOBA 0.285, K% 37.5%, BB% 12.5%, whiff% 26.7%
José Soriano: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.0%, BB% 11.0%, xwOBA 0.322, whiff% 31.6% | 1st inn full (87 PA): xwOBA 0.301, K% 27.6%, BB% 11.5%, whiff% 28.6%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 101)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.72 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: José Soriano: 71% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 56-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 31-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.249 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge +6.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +2.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+126) edge 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +126

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Ranger Suarez: xFIP 3.29, K% 27.3%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.283, whiff% 24.0% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.306, K% 31.4%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 26.0%
Kevin Gausman: xFIP 3.87, K% 23.3%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 27.3% | 1st inn full (97 PA): xwOBA 0.332, K% 18.6%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 24.3%
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 98)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.30, SO/G 0.85 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.31, SO/G 0.83
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Ranger Suarez: 71% (17 starts) | Kevin Gausman: 62% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Split-Finger (xwOBA 0.179 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -162 | implied 61.8% | model edge +7.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +126 | implied 44.2% | model edge +1.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+130) edge -0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +130

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Drew Rasmussen: xFIP 3.28, K% 22.4%, BB% 4.3%, xwOBA 0.284, whiff% 23.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.314, K% 28.9%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 23.3%
Parker Messick: xFIP 3.56, K% 23.3%, BB% 7.7%, xwOBA 0.280, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (73 PA): xwOBA 0.283, K% 28.8%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 22.4%
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 101 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.72 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.48
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Drew Rasmussen: 79% (19 starts) | Parker Messick: 90% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.286 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -166 | implied 62.4% | model edge +9.5%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +130 | implied 43.5% | model edge -0.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-111) edge -1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -111

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Braxton Ashcraft: xFIP 3.25, K% 27.9%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.292, whiff% 26.6% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 33.3%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 27.4%
Jameson Taillon: xFIP 4.67, K% 22.1%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.354, whiff% 25.5% | 1st inn full (63 PA): xwOBA 0.336, K% 20.6%, BB% 7.9%, whiff% 21.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 105)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 1.06 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.11
Umpire: Jansen Visconti — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone)
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Braxton Ashcraft: 75% (20 starts) | Jameson Taillon: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | Pittsburgh Pirates struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -115 | implied 53.5% | model edge +10.3%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -111 | implied 52.6% | model edge -1.4%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge -4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Jacob Misiorowski: xFIP 2.09, K% 39.0%, BB% 6.4%, xwOBA 0.221, whiff% 38.0% | 1st inn full (74 PA): xwOBA 0.220, K% 50.0%, BB% 6.8%, whiff% 39.2%
Kyle Freeland: xFIP 4.19, K% 19.9%, BB% 4.7%, xwOBA 0.360, whiff% 22.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.342, K% 16.7%, BB% 9.5%, whiff% 24.1%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 103)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.11 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 1.01
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Jacob Misiorowski: 79% (19 starts) | Kyle Freeland: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 28-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +13.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -4.2%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge -13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Freddy Peralta: xFIP 4.26, K% 22.7%, BB% 9.3%, xwOBA 0.303, whiff% 26.8% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.262, K% 31.1%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 33.1%
Emmet Sheehan: xFIP 3.93, K% 26.1%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 30.2% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 36.0%, BB% 4.0%, whiff% 35.2%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 107)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | confirmed top-3 BB/G 0.49, SO/G 0.86
Umpire: Malachi Moore — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone)
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Freddy Peralta: 71% (21 starts) | Emmet Sheehan: 67% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.331 vs SP's top pitch) | New York Mets struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.302 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge +22.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge -13.7%

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Colorado Rockies (+278) edge 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +294 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +278

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +294 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +278 with 16.8% edge (EV $+59.10/$100)
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 111 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.12
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (2.09)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.8 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✗ Cover prob 59.1% < 60% gate | ✓ Edge 18.4% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +135 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 269 play(s) (C 269)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0103
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/97 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 96/97 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 97.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0103
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/97 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/48 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 96/97 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0323
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/93 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/45 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 90/93 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-750) diff 94.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edouard Julien Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/98 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 98/98 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Williamson Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Romy Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Amed Rosario Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Rincones Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ali Sanchez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Schuemann Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nelson Velazquez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colby Thomas Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Outman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Dezenzo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eliezer Alfonzo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Callihan Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 17.0% / Under 83.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adrian Del Castillo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chadwick Tromp Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Trevino Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 17.0% / Under 83.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0392
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/102 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 98/102 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-550) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-390) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0408
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.218 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/98 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 94/98 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0417
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .343
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/96 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 92/96 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0408
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/98 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/45 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/98 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0600
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/100 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/100 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0571
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.290 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/105 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 99/105 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (36 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0632
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (20 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/95 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 89/95 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.381 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/96 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/96 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0707
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/99 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/99 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.441 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/99 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/50 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/99 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-900) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0673
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (61 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0761
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.282 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 85/92 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/92 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.174 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0693
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.215 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0707
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/99 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/99 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0700
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.224 (23 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0874
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.343 (74 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/90 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/90 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1099
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/91 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 82/91 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.251 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luinder Avila: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0918
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.464 (29 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 5.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .979
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/95 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 86/95 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0962
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.493 (68 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 11.6% / Under 88.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.314 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1010
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1134
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 17 PA | 1/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .243
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1158
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.329 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/95 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/95 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1020
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.556 (12 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/98 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/98 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/96 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 87/96 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0843
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.499 (15 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/83 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 76/83 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.551 (18 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/100 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 90/100 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-650) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1154
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.291 (27 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.522 (48 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/88 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 78/88 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1068
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.056
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/103 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/103 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1031
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 19 PA | 5/17 | HR 1 | K% 15.8% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .839
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/97 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 87/97 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1205
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 74/83 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 74/83 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1205
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 74/83 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 74/83 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1205
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.487 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 14 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .747
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 74/83 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 74/83 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-900) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 54.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/105 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/105 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1310
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (36 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/84 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 74/84 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.491 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/90 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 78/90 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.233 (26 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 25 PA | 8/25 | HR 1 | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .960
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 25 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-900) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.180 (27 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1486
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.373 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 63/74 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 23/29 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 63/74 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (55 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.373 (18 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .348
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1358
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.242 (35 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 70/81 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 35/39 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 70/81 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 1 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .535
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 31 PA | 6/29 | HR 1 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .637
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.176 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/81 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/40 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 70/81 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (70 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (76 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 28 PA | 8/26 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .857
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 28 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.200
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1442
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.321 (46 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1635
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 89/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1635
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 89/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1635
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (53 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/104 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/104 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1505
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/93 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 80/93 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (40 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.518 (30 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/80 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 71/80 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-450) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.509 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1596
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.584 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 6/17 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 18 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/94 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 80/94 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1800
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.352 (33 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/100 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 82/100 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 3 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.11x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1731
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (69 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/104 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/104 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1649
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.321 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/97 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 83/97 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/92 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 78/92 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 13 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .885
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1932
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/88 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 71/88 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.304 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-500) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1939
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.236 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-900) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1649
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.617 (36 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1778
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.307 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 21 PA | 5/20 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .536
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/90 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 77/90 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1827
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.292 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1863
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (58 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/102 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 84/102 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.531 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2083
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .850
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.301 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1800
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1800
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1800
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .977
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/100 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/100 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2157
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1895
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.475 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/95 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 77/95 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2115
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.385 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-475) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2157
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 0/12 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2292
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (12 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 2 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.273
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/96 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 75/96 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-550) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2212
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-400) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 15 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/96 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 74/96 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-900) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2188
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/96 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 77/96 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2024
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/84 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 68/84 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-475) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2151
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.554 (19 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/93 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 75/93 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2093
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.358 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (31 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 69/86 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-400) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (59 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 8 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.458
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-450) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2188
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/96 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/96 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2188
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 20 PA | 5/17 | HR 3 | K% 10.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.282
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/96 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/96 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (28 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2292
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Luinder Avila contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/96 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 77/96 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2165
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.451 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-475) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2788
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/104 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 78/104 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-450) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2596
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.255 (36 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/104 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 80/104 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-600) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3196
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.221 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.393 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 97, HR vulnerability 3 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/97 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter HR: 73/97 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2469
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (26 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/81 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 30/38 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 62/81 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2475
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (52 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 77/101 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-475) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2667
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.359 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.385 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 77/105 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2449
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.388 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 14, HR vulnerability 86 (adj 1.07x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 75/98 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-750) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3030
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.574 (41 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 70/99 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3125
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jeffrey Springs contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jeffrey Springs: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 57/80 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/39 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 30/41 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 57/80 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-275) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3269
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.566 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/104 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 75/104 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.350/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-275) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3267
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/101 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 73/101 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-101	48.0%	66.7%	+18.6%	$+32.67	9	Bet on DK
C	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Total	Over 7.0	-124	52.9%	70.5%	+17.5%	$+27.27	9	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-112	50.4%	67.9%	+17.4%	$+28.48	9	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Moneyline	Colorado Rockies	+278	25.3%	42.1%	+16.8%	$+59.10	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +18.6%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.3 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Drew Rasmussen elite xFIP (3.28)

C Over 7.0 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.5%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob deGrom elite xFIP (3.10)
Logan Gilbert elite xFIP (3.47)

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +17.4%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ranger Suarez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kevin Gausman (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 98)
Toronto Blue Jays confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 98 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Ranger Suarez elite xFIP (3.29)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline) +16.8%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +278 with 16.8% edge (EV $+59.10/$100)
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP) | opp wRC+ 95 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 111 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 113 (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.12
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (2.09)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.8 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✗ Cover prob 59.1% < 60% gate | ✓ Edge 18.4% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +135 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

7 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	2:11 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	+260	26.2%	38.4%	+12.2%	$+38.24	9	Bet on DK
B	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	12:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-115	50.2%	61.3%	+11.1%	$+14.67	6	Bet on DK
B	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	2:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-114	50.0%	60.9%	+10.9%	$+14.27	6	Bet on DK
C	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5)	1:41 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	+154	37.1%	46.3%	+9.1%	$+17.51	9	Bet on DK
B	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5)	2:36 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-118	50.8%	59.9%	+9.1%	$+10.74	6	Bet on DK
C	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5)	1:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-114	50.0%	59.0%	+9.0%	$+10.76	6	Bet on DK
B	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5)	1:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-144	55.3%	63.5%	+8.1%	$+7.55	6	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (7 play(s))

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 ML) +12.2%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Kyle Harrison (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.09
Kyle Freeland xFIP 4.19
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 108 (team 102)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 120 (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.15
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Away SP: Kyle Freeland (LHP)

B Over 3.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 Total) +11.1%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Drew Rasmussen xFIP 3.28
Parker Messick xFIP 3.56
Tampa Bay Rays confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 123 (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Away SP: Parker Messick (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +10.9%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Connor Prielipp xFIP 4.13
Jeffrey Springs xFIP 4.84
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 119 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP)
Away SP: Jeffrey Springs (LHP)

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 ML) +9.1%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.29
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.53
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 97 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 Total) +9.1%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.1 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Jacob deGrom xFIP 3.10
Logan Gilbert xFIP 3.47
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 101)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
Away SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (F5) (F5 Total) +9.0%

[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.65
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.21
Washington Nationals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 129 (team 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)
Away SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 Total) +8.1%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.29
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.53
Detroit Tigers confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 97 (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	Freddy Peralta / Emmet Sheehan	6.5 / 7.7	3.5 / 7.7	+22.7%	Score 6.5 < 7.7 threshold
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	Drew Rasmussen / Parker Messick	6.2 / 7.7	3.8 / 7.7	+9.5%	Score 6.2 < 7.7 threshold
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Ranger Suarez / Kevin Gausman	6.0 / 7.7	4.0 / 7.7	+7.5%	Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 7.5% < 8% required
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Jacob Misiorowski / Kyle Freeland	6.0 / 7.7	4.0 / 7.7	+13.1%	Score 6.0 < 7.7 threshold
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Jacob deGrom / Logan Gilbert	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+5.7%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 5.7% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	Braxton Ashcraft / Jameson Taillon	5.5 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+10.3%	Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Carson Whisenhunt / José Soriano	5.2 / 7.7	4.8 / 7.7	+6.8%	Score 5.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.8% < 8% required Home SP 1st-inn data partial (8 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	Cristopher Sánchez / Will Warren	4.9 / 7.7	5.1 / 7.7	+1.6%	Score 4.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 1.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	Janson Junk / Walker Buehler	4.2 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-2.2%	Score 4.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -2.2% < 8% required
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	Erick Fedde / Ronel Blanco	3.8 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-5.7%	Score 3.8 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (3 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied)
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	Connor Prielipp / Jeffrey Springs	3.7 / 7.7	6.3 / 7.7	-6.9%	Score 3.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -6.9% < 8% required 1 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	Shane Baz / Reynaldo López	3.5 / 7.7	6.5 / 7.7	-11.3%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -11.3% < 8% required
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	Framber Valdez / Luinder Avila	3.4 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-12.6%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -12.6% < 8% required
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	Miles Mikolas / Kohl Drake	3.4 / 7.7	6.7 / 7.7	-5.7%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -5.7% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (4 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied)
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	Kyle Leahy / Andrew Abbott	3.2 / 7.7	6.8 / 7.7	-14.2%	Score 3.2 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -14.2% < 8% required

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 269 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=269
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	2	Erick Fedde (R)	theScore Bet	+190	-	40.6%	32.0%	+8.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+190	-	37.1%	32.0%	+5.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	4	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	36.6%	20.8%	+15.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	1	Miles Mikolas (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	36.3%	24.6%	+11.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	4	Ronel Blanco (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	36.2%	14.3%	+21.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	1	Shane Baz (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	36.1%	22.0%	+14.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	1	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	35.1%	15.6%	+19.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	2	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.4%	23.2%	+10.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	5	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	33.3%	18.8%	+14.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	3	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.2%	23.2%	+10.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	-	Cristopher Sánchez (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.0%	17.1%	+16.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	4	Kohl Drake (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	32.9%	16.4%	+16.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Nathaniel Lowe	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	5	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	32.6%	13.3%	+19.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	2	Reynaldo López (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	32.5%	25.8%	+6.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	5	Luinder Avila (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	32.3%	15.6%	+16.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	3	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.9%	17.9%	+14.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	4	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	31.9%	19.7%	+12.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	-	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	31.7%	24.6%	+7.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	-	Will Warren (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	31.6%	22.0%	+9.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	-	Jeffrey Springs (L)	theScore Bet	+210	-	31.1%	30.1%	+1.0%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	100	93.2%	-1369	Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, CJ Abrams, James Wood	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 6.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	100	92.1%	-1166	Drake Baldwin, Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	100	91.0%	-1009	Yordan Alvarez, Braden Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Yainer Diaz	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	100	90.6%	-970	Nick Kurtz, Byron Buxton, Tyler Soderstrom, Ryan Jeffers	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	100	90.5%	-952	Brandon Lowe, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bryan Reynolds, Seiya Suzuki	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	100	90.1%	-908	Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker, Nathaniel Lowe, Noelvi Marte	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	100	89.9%	-892	Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	100	89.8%	-878	Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Hunter Goodman	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	100	87.8%	-723	Dillon Dingler, Starling Marte, Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	100	86.7%	-650	Jake Burger, Julio Rodriguez, Elias Diaz, Dominic Canzone	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	100	86.1%	-620	Kyle Schwarber, Ben Rice, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	100	85.7%	-600	Manny Machado, Kyle Stowers, Jackson Merrill, Griffin Conine	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	100	84.0%	-526	Casey Schmitt, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Mike Trout	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	97	83.8%	-515	Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Kazuma Okamoto, Andruw Monasterio	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	98	80.9%	-423	Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Chase DeLauter, Angel Martinez	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (+190) HR chance 40.6% | edge +8.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.327, OPS 1.077, ISO 0.321, TB/G 2.36
Statcast: barrel 18.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.6/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.718
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 29/104 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0400, xFIP 4.81, K% 16.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.328, xERA 4.57, whiff 18.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.077, OPS 1.150, ISO 0.347 (339 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.566, xwOBA 0.395 (59 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (+190) HR chance 37.1% | edge +5.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.327, OPS 0.911, ISO 0.298, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 18.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.503
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/101 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0329, xFIP 3.94, K% 22.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.50, whiff 22.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.302, K% 44.4% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.077, OPS 0.878, ISO 0.300 (273 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Ketel Marte — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (+350) HR chance 36.6% | edge +15.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.180, OPS 0.761, ISO 0.198, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 10.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 17/100 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0498, xFIP 4.65, K% 12.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.344, xERA 5.08, whiff 15.5%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 0.977, K% 8.3% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.031, OPS 0.701, ISO 0.162 (322 PA)

Best HR Chance Corbin Carroll — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (+275) HR chance 36.3% | edge +11.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.148, OPS 0.830, ISO 0.237, TB/G 1.81
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.452
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 14/101 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0498, xFIP 4.65, K% 12.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.344, xERA 5.08, whiff 15.5%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.500, K% 12.5% (8 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.746, ISO 0.233 (299 PA)

Strong HR Chance Braden Montgomery — Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (+550) HR chance 36.2% | edge +21.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.245, OPS 0.759, ISO 0.242, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.441
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/98 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.1107, xFIP 3.58, K% 42.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.388, xERA 6.76, whiff 38.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.711, ISO 0.221 (285 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.484, xwOBA 0.367 (23 PA)

⚠ Elite strikeout pitcher

⚠ High-whiff arsenal

Best HR Chance Drake Baldwin — Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (+325) HR chance 36.1% | edge +14.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.247, OPS 0.846, ISO 0.210, TB/G 1.88
Statcast: barrel 15.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.5/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.524
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 19/81 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0179, xFIP 4.25, K% 20.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.318, xERA 4.26, whiff 21.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.060, OPS 0.906, ISO 0.232 (216 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0173

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (+500) HR chance 35.1% | edge +19.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.222, TB/G 1.98
Statcast: barrel 14.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.1/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/84 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0245, xFIP 4.12, K% 19.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.26, whiff 21.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.033, OPS 0.773, ISO 0.176 (269 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.456, xwOBA 0.371 (56 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (+300) HR chance 33.4% | edge +10.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.215, OPS 0.892, ISO 0.228, TB/G 1.78
Statcast: barrel 18.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.6/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.493
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 18/93 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0281, xFIP 4.12, K% 24.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.318, xERA 4.26, whiff 22.8%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.766, ISO 0.165 (146 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.554, xwOBA 0.391 (19 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	+1200	0.4%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+1000	0.5%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	+1200	0.6%	Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	+1200	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+1100	1.0%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+1400	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Daulton Varsho	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+700	1.1%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+900	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+1000	1.2%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Chandler Simpson	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	+1600	1.3%	Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	12:16 PM	Drew Rasmussen	Parker Messick	0.94	19.1%	50.7%	12.8%	+6.3%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Ranger Suarez	Kevin Gausman	0.95	16.3%	45.8%	10.4%	+5.8%
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Carson Whisenhunt	José Soriano	0.82	16.0%	45.3%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	Janson Junk	Walker Buehler	0.88	14.3%	42.1%	8.8%	+5.5%
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	7:21 PM	Cristopher Sánchez	Will Warren	1.10	13.9%	41.3%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	Jacob deGrom	Logan Gilbert	1.10	13.3%	40.2%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	Framber Valdez	Luinder Avila	0.91	12.2%	37.8%	9.5%	+2.6%
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Jacob Misiorowski	Kyle Freeland	1.08	10.2%	33.5%	7.9%	+2.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	1:41 PM	Freddy Peralta	Emmet Sheehan	0.93	10.1%	33.2%	5.5%	+4.5%
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	Kyle Leahy	Andrew Abbott	0.93	9.9%	32.8%	8.7%	+1.3%
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:36 PM	Braxton Ashcraft	Jameson Taillon	0.96	9.5%	31.9%	—	—
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	Connor Prielipp	Jeffrey Springs	0.95	9.3%	31.5%	9.2%	+0.2%
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	Erick Fedde	Ronel Blanco	1.00	9.0%	30.7%	4.3%	+4.7%
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	Shane Baz	Reynaldo López	1.00	7.9%	27.9%	3.8%	+4.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	Miles Mikolas	Kohl Drake	1.02	6.8%	25.1%	4.7%	+2.1%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	88.3	91.9	97.0	5	Curveball (48% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.0%, put-away 32.2%, xwOBA 0.221, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	66.9	77.8	62.0	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 34.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	66.3	71.5	66.0	3	Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	59.5	60.4	61.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	58.6	64.2	55.0	4	Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	58.4	64.3	58.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.4	54.8	66.0	6	Curveball (45% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	58.1	53.3	67.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	56.7	50.5	65.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	55.7	55.3	56.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	55.5	68.0	46.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	54.1	57.2	52.5	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	49.5	83.5	13.5	4	Curveball (54% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 38.5%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.388, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	48.0	47.3	48.5	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	47.4	75.8	28.0	3	Changeup (57% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 27.6%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	46.3	44.2	48.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.2	47.3	44.5	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	45.5	43.0	48.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	45.4	49.5	40.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	44.7	46.2	40.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.5	44.2	43.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	44.1	42.2	46.5	7	Curveball (28% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	43.4	49.1	38.5	4	Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	43.2	34.4	49.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	41.4	53.1	30.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	40.3	34.7	43.5	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	38.4	46.9	27.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	38.2	44.1	33.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	35.7	43.3	28.5	3	Changeup (36% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	33.2	26.7	35.5	6	Curveball (23% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 15.5%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	22.6%	-	5.0	5.7	95	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 5.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	L	18.2%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.7%	4.4	4.4	4.4	74	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	5.6	5.9	5.8	94	normal	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	27.3%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Jameson Taillon	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	22.1%	4.1	5.1	4.9	69	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	17.1%	4.4	4.8	4.8	74	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	20.1%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	23.3%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	19.9%	5.6	5.2	5.3	94	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	L	19.0%	6.0	5.4	5.5	101	deep	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	23.5%	-	4.7	5.6	95	short	full	13.50	86.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.7 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.6%	5.0	4.5	4.6	84	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.0%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	26.1%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	17.2%	4.8	5.3	5.2	80	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	R	39.0%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	97.00	3.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	L	23.9%	5.4	5.1	5.2	91	normal	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	22.7%	4.5	5.2	5.1	76	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees	L	26.2%	5.4	6.3	6.1	91	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	27.9%	5.0	5.8	6.0	84	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	19.7%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	L	18.4%	5.1	5.3	5.6	86	short	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	28.1%	6.5	6.0	6.1	109	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	20.1%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	22.4%	4.8	5.5	5.3	80	short	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	R	31.1%	5.6	5.5	5.6	94	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	23.3%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	10.6%	4.7	4.8	4.9	79	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	20.3	2.8	15.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.78 <= 3 min
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	17.4	-1.1	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.5	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	19.5	20.6	1.1	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jose Soriano	Jose Soriano Under	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.3	-0.2	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

221 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
CJ Abrams	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	3.05	1.17	0.79	1.09	2.89 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.84	1.19	0.71	0.94	2.57 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Kurtz	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.84	1.04	0.94	0.86	2.51 / Over	0.30	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.83	1.51	0.72	0.60	2.42 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.83	1.18	0.91	0.74	2.70 / Over	0.30	season_games=81,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Starling Marte	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.81	1.47	0.64	0.71	2.52 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Noelvi Marte	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.76	1.49	0.60	0.67	2.52 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Braden Montgomery	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.75	1.44	0.60	0.71	2.38 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Otto Lopez	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.75	1.46	0.78	0.50	2.48 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nathaniel Lowe	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.72	1.47	0.59	0.66	2.54 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.66	1.24	0.85	0.58	2.63 / Over	0.30	season_games=84,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.62	0.99	0.81	0.83	2.70 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.60	1.16	0.82	0.62	2.77 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.60	1.10	0.75	0.75	2.27 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.55	1.15	0.58	0.83	2.35 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yandy Diaz	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.55	1.50	0.58	0.47	2.42 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Brandon Lowe	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.54	0.98	0.71	0.84	2.54 / Over	0.30	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.52	1.19	0.58	0.75	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.50	1.09	0.73	0.68	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dillon Dingler	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.50	1.02	0.63	0.84	2.41 / Over	0.30	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.49	1.12	0.80	0.57	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pedro Pages	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.46	1.35	0.61	0.50	2.22 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pete Alonso	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.43	1.01	0.76	0.66	2.67 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Sam Antonacci	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.42	1.13	0.86	0.43	2.56 / Over	0.30	season_games=83,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ryan O'Hearn	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.41	1.06	0.60	0.76	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 8 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes