MLB Bets 2026-07-25

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	247W–153L–0P	62%	-6.80 u	Last 14 days • 400 settled
Grade A	22W–17L–0P	56%	+0.65 u
Grade B	225W–136L–0P	62%	-7.45 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2257W–1588L–8P	59%	-143.49 u	All-time • 3853 settled
Grade A	227W–165L–0P	58%	+5.42 u
Grade B	2030W–1423L–8P	59%	-148.91 u

50 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Junior Caminero	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Hits	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-318	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-110	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Brown	5.5	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Hunter Greene	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	119	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Robert Gasser	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Dylan Cease	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Eury Perez	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Foster Griffin	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Mitch Bratt	2.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Greene	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Hits Allow	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Pitcher Outs	Dylan Cease	17.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Total	Over	7.5	-108	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-24	Run Line	New York Mets	+1.5	-126	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 4, New York M
2026-07-24	K Prop	Bryce Miller	5.5	-153	-	LOSS	-1.000	Bryce Miller: 0.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-145	-	WIN	+0.690	Tarik Skubal: 12.0 (line 7.5)
2026-07-24	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	4.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Joey Cantillo: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-152	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jordan Walker: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-154	-	LOSS	-1.000	Alec Burleson: 0.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-129	-	WIN	+0.775	Drake Baldwin: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Juan Soto	0.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Juan Soto: 2.0 (line 0.5)
2026-07-24	Batter H+R+RBI	Nicky Lopez	1.5	140	-	WIN	+1.400	Nicky Lopez: 2.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	453	57%	-0.15u	53	55%	-1.81u	211	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	401	58%	+12.85u	51	51%	-5.33u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	140	54%	-3.25u	2	50%	-0.17u	42	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	710	73%	-3.22u	83	82%	+5.84u	6	83%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	410	58%	-9.37u	93	51%	-13.73u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	295	59%	-13.03u	65	63%	+1.02u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	38	76%	+2.90u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	109	46%	-14.19u	7	57%	-0.06u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	3	67%	+0.43u	2	100%	+1.43u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	504	51%	-55.47u	20	60%	+1.22u	74	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	1/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 453, 14d N 53	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 15 total candidate(s); season N 401, 14d N 51	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 140, 14d N 2	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 103 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 18 total candidate(s); season N 109, 14d N 7	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 50, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 3, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 4 actionable / 198 total candidate(s); season N 504, 14d N 20	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 198 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 757 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Savant 1st-inn: 318 pitcher(s) with 1st-inning splits
✓	READY	Available	Team NRFI streaks: 30 teams \| 30 with streak ≥5
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 217 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 736 pitcher(s), 3236 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 561 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1614 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Athletics, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2064 market side(s) checked \| 2064 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
ℹ	PARTIAL	Non-blocking	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 0 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 198 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 606 \| batter bats 393 \| batter hand splits 146 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 561 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 245 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

DraftKings lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+153	-186	+1.5 (-137)	-1.5 (+114)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	+123	-149	+1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-195)	-1.5 (+160)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+101	-122	-1.5 (+168)	+1.5 (-206)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+139)	+1.5 (-168)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	+111	-134	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+113	-136	+1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-187)	O/U 9.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+141	-171	+1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 10.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	+105	-126	+1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+185	-228	+1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+102	-123	-1.5 (+167)	+1.5 (-204)	O/U 8.5	HOME	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	-167	+137	-1.5 (+103)	+1.5 (-124)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+153)	+1.5 (-186)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 25 Grade B | 665 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	JAY@SOX	4:11 PM	7.5	9.9	-110	DK Over 7.5 -110 \| exact	32.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	CUB@PIR	6:41 PM	5.5	7.1	-140	FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 \| best price	29.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade…	K Prop	Eury Perez Over	PAD@MAR	4:11 PM	5.5	6.8	-153	FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 \| best price	23.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (10 play(s))

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -148Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

Pitcher Outs - Foster Griffin Over

Projection: 19.0Displayed: Over 18.5 +121Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.7Recommended: FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.7

Batter H+R+RBI - James Wood Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Otto Lopez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Arraez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Total Bases - Ryan O'Hearn Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 1.5 +141Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Cooper Pratt Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Over 4.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 4.5 +114Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: Bovada Direct Over 4 +100 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -148Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-110) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-118	-110	-
DK	7.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-106	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 32.2% vs 17% min; cushion +2.41K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 13.4, proj 9.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.0% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 80 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.3%, L7 21.3%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.5%/80 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.90 | Season Avg 8.61
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (-140) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-125	-103	-
DK	5.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.62K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.4, proj 7.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.45
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-153) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 23.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eury Perez: K/9 10.2, proj 6.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.5% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .160 | OPS .462
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.4%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.12
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (25 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 3.5 (+110) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+111	-
DK	3.5	-141	+110	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 34.4% vs 17% min; cushion -1.20K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 7.5, proj 2.3K over 3.9 IP (season 3.6 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 12.6% | put-away% 9.2% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Slider (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.7%, L7 22.9%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 under 3.5

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-129) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.7% vs 17% min; cushion -1.14K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.4, proj 4.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Cutter: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 42.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6%, active roster 21.4%/8 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (+114) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-146	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion -1.06K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Brown: K/9 8.5, proj 4.4K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 19.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 20 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.188
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.8%, season 23.7%, active roster 23.4%/6 hitters, BVP 10.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.38 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/8 under 5.5
K% trend: headwind -7.5 ppts (recent 16.8% vs season 24.3%, proj adj -3.7%)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-147) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 9.0%)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 18.6%, L7 26.4%, season 21.0% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 (-157) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.67 over 6.3 IP (WHIP 0.91, BB% 5.5%)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-101) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 0.97, BB% 5.7%)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (-125) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
DK	5.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 6.0%)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.90x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Greene Under 5.5 (-140) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 8.3%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/3 under 5.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 2.5 (-150) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.40 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.64, ERA 2.67)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.3 outs/6.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 80 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.3%, L7 21.3%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.5%/80 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Over 1.5 (-150) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 2.74)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .160 | OPS .462
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.4%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-167) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.99 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 3.01)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-131) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.97 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 2.00)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-135) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.04 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 3.01)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 20 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .053 | OPS .153
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 35.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-115) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.03 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.13)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.09 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.15, ERA 4.09)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 126 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .241 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.5%, L7 25.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/126 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-124) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-107	-124	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.89 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 4.71)
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 3.6 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.7%, L7 22.9%, season 21.5% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-263) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+193	-263	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.223)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.218 (67 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/103 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 39/49 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 80/103 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-263) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-318) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+221	-318	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 71/95 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 71/95 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-318); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.405 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 31/49 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.69 | Day Batter HRR: 59/100 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 2 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-129) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 62/101 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.51

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.63
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.733 (46 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/53 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.98 | Away Batter HRR: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 56/103 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-127) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.437, xSLG 0.627 (29 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-108) edge 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -108

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-114	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
DK	7.5	-108	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-107	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-106	-	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.32)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 26% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-148) edge 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+114	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	4	-110	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Nathan Eovaldi xFIP 3.32
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.71
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-137) edge 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Kansas City Royals 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -137

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Kansas City Royals 1.5 -105 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Easton McGee (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+6.64/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 6.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -137 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Comerica Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -3.251u and d14 P&L -0.167u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (665 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 8 | C 12)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 (-137) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 23.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 8.0, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 12.6% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.6%, L7 26.4%, season 21.0%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 23.7% vs season 17.8%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 23.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 (+119) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	6.5	+112	-145	-
DK	6.5	+119	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.0% / under 57.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nathan Eovaldi: K/9 10.6, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 172 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.42
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
K% trend: support +7.2 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 25.3%, proj adj +3.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (-101) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
DK	4.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.03K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 8.0, proj 5.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 24.0% vs season 19.0%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-142) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-141	+109	-
DK	6.5	-142	+112	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-146	+114	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 10.6, proj 7.4K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 126 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .241 | OPS .721
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 126 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.5%, L7 25.4%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.8%/7 hitters, BVP 31.8%/126 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-148) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+108	-
DK	5.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.1, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .476
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 83 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 5.5 (-147) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.3, proj 6.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 54 PA | K% 29.6% | BB% 18.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .661
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 24.2%, L7 27.5%, season 25.1%, active roster 25.6%/6 hitters, BVP 29.6%/54 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-116) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.6, proj 4.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 119 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, active roster 18.5%/6 hitters, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 28.0% vs season 22.1%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (-144) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-139	+107	-
DK	4.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.3, proj 4.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .624
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.0%, L7 26.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.74
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 (-149) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.70K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.0, proj 3.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Cutter (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Cutter: 15.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.3%, L7 20.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 11.9% vs season 19.1%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-139) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
DK	3.5	+109	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	3.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.53K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.6, proj 3.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.7% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .543
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.7%, L7 20.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.26
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Under 4.5 (-128) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
DK	4.5	+101	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.0% / under 53.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.7, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 147 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.95
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 10.6% vs season 16.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 6.5 (+103) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 11.0, proj 7.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 20 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .053 | OPS .153
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 35.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.75
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.5, proj 5.0K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 121 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Greene Over 6.5 (+113) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+106	-137	-
DK	6.5	+113	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Greene: K/9 11.4, proj 7.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 26.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.7%/6 hitters, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.67 | Season Avg 8.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Over 5.5 (+102) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Burke: K/9 10.3, proj 5.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.673
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season
K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 32.5% vs season 26.2%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 (-156) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6.25 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Ryan Weathers: K/9 10.6, proj 6.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.9%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 30.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 (-104) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+104	-135	-
DK	6.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.6, proj 7.0K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 19.5%/7 hitters, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (-160) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 5.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 5.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	5.5	+118	-157	Recommended
DK	5.5	+125	-160	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 177 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .248 | OPS .690
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 177 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.0%, season 23.2%, BVP 15.2%/177 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 4.5 (+122) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.9, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 110 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .514
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.4%/110 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/14 (21%) | Season 3/14 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 5.5 (-109) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	-103	-129	-
DK	5.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 9.5, proj 5.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Split-Finger (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 71 PA | K% 15.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .318 | OPS .807
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 23.0%, L7 22.2%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.1%/6 hitters, BVP 15.5%/71 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 18 play(s) (B 1 | C 17)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Nathan Eovaldi Over 17.5 (-200) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.3% / Under 37.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-197	+147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-200	+148	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 19.341 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.32 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 62.3% / under 37.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.9%, L7 8.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.2%/172 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 18.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (-101) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	-107	-125	-
DK	18.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	-102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 22.041 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.7 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.7 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .213 | OPS .622
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.1%, L7 28.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.2%, L7 10.1%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.0%/50 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.90 | Season Avg 19.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Robert Gasser Under 17.5 (-108) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 15.094999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 42.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.8%, L7 6.5%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.1 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.40 | Season Avg 15.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 18.5 (+118) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	Recommended
BetMGM	18.5	+150	-210	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	18.5	+136	-182	-
DK	18.5	+118	-157	Selected
Fanatics	18.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.842 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 18.3 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 80 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.3%, L7 21.3%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.5%/80 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.7%, L7 5.9%, season 8.0%, BVP 10.0%/80 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/18 (28%) | Season 5/18 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-156) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 17.5 -148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-156	+117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.436 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 177 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .248 | OPS .690
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.7%, L7 22.0%, season 23.2%, BVP 15.2%/177 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.6%, L7 6.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.8%/177 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Greene Under 17.5 (+124) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +124

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-159	+120	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 16.193 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 30%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.33 | Season Avg 16.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/3 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-178) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 18.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+125	Recommended
Caesars	17.5	-173	+130	-
DK	17.5	-178	+133	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-178	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.761999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.0%, L7 5.9%, season 7.3%, BVP 12.6%/119 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 16.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Under 17.5 (-104) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-121	-110	-
DK	17.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.238 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.3 IP (xFIP 4.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.7%, L7 20.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.0%, L7 7.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (+108) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-141	+106	-
DK	17.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.322 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.3%, L7 20.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.4%, L7 7.6%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.2%/69 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-106) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-106	-127	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-104	-130	-
Fanatics	17.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.575 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 20 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .053 | OPS .153
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.2%, season 20.5%, BVP 35.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 12.2%, L7 8.3%, season 10.3%, BVP 5.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eury Perez Under 17.5 (-135) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-103	-130	-
DK	17.5	+102	-135	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-
Fanatics	17.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.429000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.98 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .160 | OPS .462
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.4%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.2%, L7 11.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Andre Pallante Under 17.5 (-121) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.545 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 9.5%/147 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 16.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-106) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-125	-108	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	-102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.634 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.53 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.3%, L7 6.8%, season 7.9% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 18.5 (-154) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+124	-164	-
DK	18.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	-
Fanatics	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.988 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.71 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.6%, split 7.1%, L7 4.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.8%/83 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 18.5 (+121) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 18.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+139	-
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+124	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-200	+140	-
DK	18.5	+121	-161	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.953999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 13.9%, L7 18.4%, season 19.6% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 8.9%, L7 12.8%, season 8.8% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Over 17.5 (-140) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-143	+107	-
DK	17.5	-140	+106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.857999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.85 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.673
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 10.1%, L7 8.7%, season 8.7%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 16.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (+122) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +123 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-164	+123	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-163	+122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
BetMGM	18.5	+160	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.283 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 126 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .241 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.5%, L7 25.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/126 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.8%, split 11.7%, L7 12.1%, season 11.1%, BVP 12.7%/126 PA (adj 1.20x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (+109) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-159	+119	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.332 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
DK books agree: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.9%, L7 8.3%, season 9.4%, BVP 3.5%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 194 play(s) (B 3 | C 191)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-122) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.515 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/93 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 54/93 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-128) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-117) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-158) diff 97.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 97.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.61
Base projection 2.61 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.692 (64 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/104 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/52 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 60/104 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-135) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/97 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 57/97 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-162) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-162	+121	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.309 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/100 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/51 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 66/100 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-146) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.49
Base projection 2.49 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.312 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/80 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/43 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter HRR: 20/37 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 49/80 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-140) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/48 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/48 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.85 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-130) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+111) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.409, xSLG 0.581 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .619
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/94 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 43/94 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-132) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.492 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-125) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Day Batter HRR: 60/102 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-137) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.384, xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/83 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/40 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/43 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 50/83 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-146) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.466 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/97 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 52/97 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-146) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/96 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 52/96 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (-118) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.487, xSLG 0.759 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-109) diff 54.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.549 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 58/102 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-109) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.44 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+117) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.233 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/92 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 48/92 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+100) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/89 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.82 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 42/89 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-140) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-140	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 57/104 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-119) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/103 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 58/103 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-110) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.632 (35 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-170) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.229, xSLG 0.257 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/97 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/44 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 53/97 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-140) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/95 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 33/51 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.73 | Day Batter HRR: 55/95 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-118) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-147) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/95 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 50/95 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (-138) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.424 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/86 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 16/41 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 40/86 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-121) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.241 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-114) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.427, xSLG 0.698 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-113) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/98 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 50/98 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-126) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.203 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-124) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-127) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.400 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/95 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 52/95 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-116) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+108) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-103) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.607 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 21 PA | 4/18 | HR 1 | K% 38.1% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/95 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 51/95 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-102) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/88 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 19/40 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 44/88 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-122) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.446 (33 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 55/103 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-117) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.63 | Day Batter HRR: 55/101 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+100) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.261 (21 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+117) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.261 (21 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/96 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 48/96 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (-103) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/99 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 53/99 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.393 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-111) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Recommended
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.298 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-115) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.415, xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/82 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 42/82 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-140) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.176, xSLG 0.176 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.50 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-114) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/52 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 58/104 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+105) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.331 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 39 PA | 5/36 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .374
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+103) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.509 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/87 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 26/42 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 49/87 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-119) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/100 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 53/100 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-113) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 57/98 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+131) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.460 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/102 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 54/102 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-109) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-116) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/93 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 45/93 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-135) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 52/100 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-116) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.174, xSLG 0.206 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 15 PA | 1/12 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/85 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/42 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 23/43 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 41/85 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-117) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.204 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+129) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.453, xSLG 0.689 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/89 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/45 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 47/89 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-109) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.409 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/103 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 58/103 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+104) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.498 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/98 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 44/98 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+106) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+123) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-138) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-101) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.281 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 34/79 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 34/79 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+100) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.380 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/90 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 21/42 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 41/90 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Young Over 1.5 (+125) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-109) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-103) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.454 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/100 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/100 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-105) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.332 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-118) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/83 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/38 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 38/83 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+113) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.429, xSLG 0.464 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 48/97 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+119) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.224 (22 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/99 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 53/99 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+119) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.379 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+111) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.308 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (-113) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.548 (45 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 21 PA | 4/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .793
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-134) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.462 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-110) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.290 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .909
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 54/98 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+107) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.341 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+116) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.449 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/94 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 47/94 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.313 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 27/49 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Soler Over 1.5 (-106) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.401 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.6% | BB% 15.8% | OPS .768
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/80 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 35/80 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-145) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+110) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/80 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/41 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 18/39 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 40/80 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+101) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/97 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 43/97 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+117) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.460 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-139) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.281 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-104) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+115) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.217 (54 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/98 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 48/98 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+128) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.364 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+112) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.410 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/100 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 43/100 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-159) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.151 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 11 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .091
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/89 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 29/46 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 55/89 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Under 2.5 (-159) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+120	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.16 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 under 2.5 (51%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 32/48 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 58/99 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+107) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.413 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/103 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 42/103 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+111) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 52/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-106) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.255 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.364 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-109) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.278 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-118) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.260 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter HRR: 41/99 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+124) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.236 (76 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.8% | BB% 22.7% | OPS .830
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-103) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+115) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+109) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.211 (55 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 21 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.076
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-111) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.333 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-107) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/97 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 43/97 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.376 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-129) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.370 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/91 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 25/42 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 58/91 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-162) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-132) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-120) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+104) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+115) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+128) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Locklear Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-128) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-121) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (+109) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Smith Under 1.5 (-160) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.639 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-165) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.639 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/95 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 49/95 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-116) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.207 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | OPS .810
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 37/73 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 37/73 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colton Cowser Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-118) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-103) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (-107) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edmundo Sosa Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Caballero Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.273 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .820
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.399 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-140) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-119) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-109) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Logan O'Hoppe Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daniel Susac Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+129) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+103) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Williamson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-111) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-110) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-131) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-129) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .671
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-154) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.325 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/95 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 52/95 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-138) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.249 (31 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/95 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 23/46 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 54/95 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+135) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.249 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/99 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/46 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 43/99 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-128) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/96 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/48 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter HRR: 57/96 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edwin Arroyo Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+126) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Harry Ford Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/82 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/40 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 50/82 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-133) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 (-134) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Under 1.5 (-147) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (+110) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 6.9%)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 119 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .821
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.0%, season 19.6%, BVP 16.8%/119 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-115) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
DK	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.3%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.3%, L7 20.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 (-137) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.6%)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 110 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.4%/110 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 (+108) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 6.7%)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-147) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+110	-147	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 4.4%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.7%, L7 20.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-137) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 4.9%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Over 5.5 (+100) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+100	-133	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 7.2%)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.0%, L7 26.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Over 5.5 (-138) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 8.2%)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Over 5.5 (-107) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.0%)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 (+117) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 5.8%)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-138) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.31, ERA 4.86)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-129) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 3.58)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 58 PA | K% 32.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .125 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 25.0%, L7 31.7%, season 24.2%, BVP 32.8%/58 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-125) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.26 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 2.60)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.673
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 20.3%, L7 20.0%, season 21.4%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Over 2.5 (-152) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.55 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 5.63)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 110 PA | K% 25.4% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .190 | OPS .514
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.0%, L7 24.4%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.4%/110 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-106) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.20 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 3.69)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 69 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.3%, L7 20.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 20.3%/69 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nathan Eovaldi Under 2.5 (-158) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 4.20)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nathan Eovaldi: 172 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .237 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 24.4%/172 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-143) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.71, ERA 4.05)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 83 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.5%, L7 21.4%, season 22.3%, BVP 24.1%/83 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 2.67)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 54 PA | K% 29.6% | BB% 18.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, split 24.2%, L7 27.5%, season 25.1%, BVP 29.6%/54 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Under 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 4.24)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 18.6%, L7 26.4%, season 21.0% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Over 2.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.12, ERA 5.79)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.0%, L7 26.9%, season 24.2%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-141) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.33)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 147 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .227 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 23.7%, L7 19.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 15.0%/147 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Greene Over 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.18)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Greene: 49 PA | K% 32.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.5%, L7 22.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 32.6%/49 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Under 2.5 (-154) Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 2.60)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .167 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.7%, L7 20.7%, season 22.3%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (+108) Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 3.31)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.4% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Under 2.5 (-132) Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.52 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 4.89)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 20 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.188
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.2%, L7 22.8%, season 23.7%, BVP 10.0%/20 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.25 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-174) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 4.84)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
DK books agree: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 42.9% | AVG .250 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.2%, L7 19.9%, season 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-253) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-248) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 36/48 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 72/99 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-274) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+201	-274	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/35 (34%) | L5 9/18 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/95 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/47 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 67/95 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-269) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+197	-269	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.242)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.176 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 40/49 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.84 | Day Batter Hits: 77/101 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-237) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+175	-237	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.258)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/43 (21%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/99 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 69/99 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-224) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+166	-224	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-255) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.300)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/97 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 67/97 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-257) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.285 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 5/24 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter Hits: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-203) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.229 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/97 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/44 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 59/97 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-227) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+168	-227	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.330)
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.246 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/51 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter Hits: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter Hits: 59/100 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-250) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 66/97 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-271) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .671
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 67/103 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-250) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/94 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/46 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 61/94 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-363) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+250	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-184) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-439) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Outman Under 0.5 (-341) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-257) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -245; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-447) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -447

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+301	-447	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-377) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+258	-377	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-279) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/77 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/40 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 24/37 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 46/77 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-219) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -219

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .461
BVP walk adjustment: 1.01x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/103 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 60/103 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+123) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+123	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 18/50 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 46/100 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 103 play(s) (C 103)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+102) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.692 (64 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-103) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.38
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.733 (46 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 51/103 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+108) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.627 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+123) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+112) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.17
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+124) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter TB: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 (+126) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.759 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/95 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 45/95 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+111) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+114) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/83 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 41/83 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+116) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.241 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-207) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
Caesars	1.5	+154	-209	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/95 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 65/95 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-109) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.466 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/97 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 45/97 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-196) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/96 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 65/96 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+126) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.446 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/103 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 43/103 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+133) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.632 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+108) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/95 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 41/95 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+121) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+111) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/102 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 28/48 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 49/102 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-101) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 34/80 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter TB: 13/37 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 34/80 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-205) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .820
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/101 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 66/101 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+116) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/99 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 44/99 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+121) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/100 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 42/100 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-196) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Curtis Mead Over 1.5 (+114) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/86 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 13/41 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 33/86 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-190) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/91 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 61/91 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+104) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/95 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 44/95 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-111) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/99 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 49/99 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+109) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.203 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/101 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 42/101 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-194) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/97 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 29/48 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 64/97 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+103) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 43/104 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-200) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.278 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/97 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 62/97 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.515 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/93 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 36/93 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-152) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.462 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/99 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 64/99 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+139) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.549 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+108) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+122) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+134) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/88 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 42/88 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+124) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+126) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.698 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 34/103 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/51 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 34/103 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+120) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-205) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	Recommended
DK	1.5	+152	-205	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/90 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 27/42 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 61/90 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+122) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 (+141) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/89 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter TB: 13/45 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 32/89 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.261 (21 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+138) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/102 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 39/102 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-178) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 67/99 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 27/79 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/38 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 27/79 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+157) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +157

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+157	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+128) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-172) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.207 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | OPS .810
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/73 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/45 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 43/73 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+127) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.400 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/95 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 39/95 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+142) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-177) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 22/49 under 1.5 (45%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 53/98 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-176) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/83 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 57/83 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+143) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/98 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/49 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 39/98 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+118) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 40/96 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+141) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+143) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+148) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+129) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+132) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/100 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/52 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 38/100 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 15 PA | 1/12 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/85 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/42 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 31/85 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-193) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-196) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 62/98 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+138) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+124) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+146) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/99 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/99 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+138) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+141) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 1.5 (+144) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+123) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/50 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (42 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/101 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 36/101 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-198) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/82 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/40 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 49/82 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/101 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter TB: 16/54 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 38/101 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/100 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 39/100 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .909
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/98 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/98 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+151) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-147) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Steer Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (45 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 21 PA | 4/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .793
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/97 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 36/97 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-105) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-187) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/93 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 57/93 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-179) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 69/104 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-198) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.204 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 66/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-118) edge 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books | 7 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 7.5 -112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-119	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (-114) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 10.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 -114

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 6 books | 9.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 10.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 9.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	9.5	-	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	10.5	-	-118	-
BetRivers	10.5	-	-113	-
DK	10.5	-	-114	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	-112	-
MyBookie	10.5	-	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	10.5	-	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 10.5
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Mason Barnett small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-102) edge 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	5.5	-128	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.33
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 4.5 4.5 (+114) edge 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4 +100 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4 +100 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4	-124	+104	-
Bovada Direct	4	+100	-130	Recommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-148	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.72
Tanner Bibee xFIP 4.33
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-148) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 -103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-117	-103	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-148	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.53
Bryce Elder xFIP 4.12
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Bryce Elder (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ NRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-156) edge 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -156

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.15, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.259, whiff% 27.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 36.0%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 30.1%
Shota Imanaga: xFIP 3.94, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.255, K% 34.2%, BB% 7.3%, whiff% 36.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.19
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 71% (21 starts) | Shota Imanaga: 75% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +23.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -14.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 7.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 7.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-136) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -136

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.32, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.83
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.282 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +16.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -8.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-130) edge 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -130

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Casey Mize: xFIP 3.69, K% 25.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 29.1% | 1st inn full (54 PA): xwOBA 0.236, K% 27.8%, BB% 7.4%, whiff% 29.5%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.33, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.296, K% 23.8%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 17.7%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Casey Mize: 100% (15 starts) | Michael Wacha: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +9.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -0.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-156) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -156

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.68, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.246, K% 25.3%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 23.7%
Dylan Cease: xFIP 2.64, K% 36.3%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.267, whiff% 35.0% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 36.7%, BB% 12.7%, whiff% 30.1%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 61% (18 starts) | Dylan Cease: 61% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -0.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.85, K% 28.4%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.293, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (64 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 14.8%
Hunter Brown: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.1%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.3%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 27.8%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 69% (16 starts) | Hunter Brown: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +1.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-142) edge 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -142

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.34, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 31.7%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.0%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.34, K% 24.9%, BB% 5.5%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 22.0%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 70% (20 starts) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 72% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.336 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +2.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-120) edge 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Eury Pérez: xFIP 3.98, K% 28.8%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.311, whiff% 29.5% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 30.9%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 34.4%
JP Sears: xFIP 4.26, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Eury Pérez: 65% (17 starts) | JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +3.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +5.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+104) edge -4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Brandon Young: xFIP 4.53, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.8%
Bryce Elder: xFIP 4.12, K% 18.6%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 24.4%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 24.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.94
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Brandon Young: 69% (16 starts) | Bryce Elder: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -4.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.7%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-106) edge -7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -106

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.61, K% 23.9%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.291, K% 30.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 24.0%
Mitch Bratt: xFIP 4.48, K% 18.7%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 12.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (12 PA): xwOBA 0.357, K% 8.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Foster Griffin: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -7.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +16.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (+118) edge -7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +118

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.33, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 20.4%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
All-game streak: 44-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge -7.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +8.9%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-104) edge -9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.42, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +18.2%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.87, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -10.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +19.1%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-102) edge -10.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.31, K% 26.0%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.364, K% 24.4%, BB% 5.8%, whiff% 27.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +11.6%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-122) edge -16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.84, K% 19.4%, BB% 11.6%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.310, K% 21.5%, BB% 10.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Ryan Johnson: xFIP 4.60, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.397, K% 17.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 28.1%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Robbie Ray: 79% (19 starts) | Ryan Johnson: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.337 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -16.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +25.0%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked NRFI — NRFI (-125) edge -25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –✗–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Nick Martinez: xFIP 4.72, K% 12.7%, BB% 4.4%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 17.1%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.33, K% 16.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 18.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.74
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Nick Martinez: 90% (19 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 67% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -25.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +34.5%

⚠ Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D

▸ YRFI — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-102) edge 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Nick Martinez: xFIP 4.72, K% 12.7%, BB% 4.4%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 17.7% | 1st inn full (76 PA): xwOBA 0.304, K% 17.1%, BB% 6.6%, whiff% 15.4%
Tanner Bibee: xFIP 4.33, K% 16.6%, BB% 7.3%, xwOBA 0.326, whiff% 24.2% | 1st inn full (90 PA): xwOBA 0.378, K% 18.9%, BB% 8.9%, whiff% 22.0%
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 120 (team avg 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.50, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.74
Park: Tropicana Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Nick Martinez: 90% (19 starts) | Tanner Bibee: 67% (21 starts)
All-game streak: 50-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.266 vs SP's top pitch) | Tampa Bay Rays rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.342 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge -25.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge +34.5%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 35% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Robbie Ray: xFIP 4.84, K% 19.4%, BB% 11.6%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.310, K% 21.5%, BB% 10.1%, whiff% 23.0%
Ryan Johnson: xFIP 4.60, K% 21.5%, BB% 9.0%, xwOBA 0.330, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.397, K% 17.1%, BB% 14.3%, whiff% 28.1%
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 100)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.26, SO/G 0.73 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.56, SO/G 1.05
Park: Oracle Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.92)
NRFI rate: Robbie Ray: 79% (19 starts) | Ryan Johnson: 57% (7 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch) | San Francisco Giants rakes vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.337 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -16.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +25.0%

⚠ ⚠ High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Andre Pallante: xFIP 4.14, K% 14.7%, BB% 7.0%, xwOBA 0.299, whiff% 20.9% | 1st inn full (85 PA): xwOBA 0.375, K% 14.1%, BB% 8.2%, whiff% 17.1%
Hunter Greene: xFIP 3.87, K% 30.1%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.323, whiff% 27.1% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (13 PA): xwOBA 0.429, K% 46.2%, BB% 7.7%, whiff% 40.7%
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 97)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.38, SO/G 0.81 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.42, SO/G 1.00
Park: Busch Stadium (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Andre Pallante: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.285 vs SP's top pitch) | St. Louis Cardinals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge -10.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +19.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-122) edge 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Robert Gasser: xFIP 4.42, K% 21.9%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 22.4% | 1st inn full (43 PA): xwOBA 0.209, K% 30.2%, BB% 14.0%, whiff% 18.6%
Ryan Feltner: xFIP 4.72, K% 17.3%, BB% 9.6%, xwOBA 0.366, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (62 PA): xwOBA 0.396, K% 17.7%, BB% 9.7%, whiff% 24.5%
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 102)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 121 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.52, SO/G 1.12 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.87
Park: American Family Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.03)
NRFI rate: Robert Gasser: 60% (10 starts) | Ryan Feltner: 64% (14 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies rakes vs Cutter (xwOBA 0.317 vs SP's top pitch) | Milwaukee Brewers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.303 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge -9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +18.2%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-120) edge 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -120

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Foster Griffin: xFIP 3.61, K% 23.9%, BB% 5.7%, xwOBA 0.305, whiff% 25.3% | 1st inn full (84 PA): xwOBA 0.291, K% 30.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 24.0%
Mitch Bratt: xFIP 4.48, K% 18.7%, BB% 8.9%, xwOBA 0.351, whiff% 12.6% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (12 PA): xwOBA 0.357, K% 8.3%, BB% 16.7%, whiff% 12.0%
Washington Nationals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 125 (team avg 107)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 109 (team avg 98)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.01 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.39, SO/G 0.82
Park: Nationals Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.99)
NRFI rate: Foster Griffin: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 48-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 30-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch) | Washington Nationals struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.298 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -106 | implied 51.5% | model edge -7.2%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +16.2%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-132) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -132

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Brandon Young: xFIP 4.53, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.2%, xwOBA 0.317, whiff% 22.9% | 1st inn full (72 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 22.2%, BB% 8.3%, whiff% 20.8%
Bryce Elder: xFIP 4.12, K% 18.6%, BB% 7.2%, xwOBA 0.304, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.284, K% 24.4%, BB% 12.2%, whiff% 24.6%
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 104 (team avg 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 119 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.55, SO/G 1.02 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.94
Park: Camden Yards (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Brandon Young: 69% (16 starts) | Bryce Elder: 79% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 49-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.294 vs SP's top pitch) | Baltimore Orioles struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.314 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +104 | implied 49.0% | model edge -4.6%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -132 | implied 56.9% | model edge +13.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-125) edge 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -125

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Ryan Weathers: xFIP 3.31, K% 26.0%, BB% 6.7%, xwOBA 0.328, whiff% 28.6% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.364, K% 24.4%, BB% 5.8%, whiff% 27.2%
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 98)
New York Yankees pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.48, SO/G 1.17 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.79
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Citizens Bank Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.05)
NRFI rate: Ryan Weathers: 63% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 53-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 29-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.242 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -102 | implied 50.5% | model edge -10.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -125 | implied 55.6% | model edge +11.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-150) edge 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -150

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Home SP (TBD) -- used league avg
Mason Barnett: xFIP 4.33, K% 17.8%, BB% 9.8%, xwOBA 0.347, whiff% 20.4%
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 111 (team avg 101)
Athletics pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 118 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.28, SO/G 0.89 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.57, SO/G 1.06
Confidence penalty: -0.35 both NRFI/YRFI (1 SP profile missing, 2 lineup(s) unconfirmed)
Park: Target Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
All-game streak: 44-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.304 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds +118 | implied 45.9% | model edge -7.8%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -150 | implied 60.0% | model edge +8.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-108) edge 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -108

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Eury Pérez: xFIP 3.98, K% 28.8%, BB% 10.0%, xwOBA 0.311, whiff% 29.5% | 1st inn full (68 PA): xwOBA 0.312, K% 30.9%, BB% 5.9%, whiff% 34.4%
JP Sears: xFIP 4.26, K% 20.7%, BB% 8.3%, xwOBA 0.337, whiff% 21.7% | 1st inn partial/shrunk (18 PA): xwOBA 0.292, K% 11.1%, BB% 11.1%, whiff% 9.7%
Miami Marlins pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 113 (team avg 102)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 96)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.36, SO/G 0.52 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.43, SO/G 0.86
Park: loanDepot park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Eury Pérez: 65% (17 starts) | JP Sears: 80% (5 starts)
All-game streak: 54-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 23-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.291 vs SP's top pitch) | Miami Marlins struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.252 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -120 | implied 54.5% | model edge +3.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -108 | implied 51.9% | model edge +5.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+112) edge 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +112

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Nolan McLean: xFIP 3.34, K% 29.4%, BB% 8.7%, xwOBA 0.286, whiff% 25.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.271, K% 31.7%, BB% 8.5%, whiff% 21.0%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: xFIP 3.34, K% 24.9%, BB% 5.5%, xwOBA 0.279, whiff% 26.5% | 1st inn full (70 PA): xwOBA 0.288, K% 22.9%, BB% 7.1%, whiff% 22.0%
New York Mets pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 123 (team avg 108)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.45, SO/G 0.76 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 0.87
Park: Citi Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Nolan McLean: 70% (20 starts) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 72% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 51-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 26-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers rakes vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.336 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -142 | implied 58.7% | model edge +6.4%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +112 | implied 47.2% | model edge +2.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (-104) edge 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings -104

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sean Burke: xFIP 3.85, K% 28.4%, BB% 7.4%, xwOBA 0.293, whiff% 24.7% | 1st inn full (64 PA): xwOBA 0.256, K% 25.0%, BB% 3.1%, whiff% 14.8%
Hunter Brown: xFIP 4.40, K% 21.1%, BB% 12.2%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 26.4% | 1st inn full (35 PA): xwOBA 0.300, K% 34.3%, BB% 8.6%, whiff% 27.8%
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 110 (team avg 101)
Houston Astros pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 122 (team avg 101)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.90 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.46, SO/G 0.78
Park: Guaranteed Rate Field (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.95)
NRFI rate: Sean Burke: 69% (16 starts) | Hunter Brown: 75% (8 starts)
All-game streak: 47-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 24-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros struggles vs Slider (xwOBA 0.293 vs SP's top pitch) | Chicago White Sox struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.274 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -122 | implied 55.0% | model edge +8.0%
YRFI FANDUEL odds -104 | implied 51.0% | model edge +1.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge -0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Sonny Gray: xFIP 3.68, K% 24.1%, BB% 6.9%, xwOBA 0.296, whiff% 21.8% | 1st inn full (75 PA): xwOBA 0.246, K% 25.3%, BB% 6.7%, whiff% 23.7%
Dylan Cease: xFIP 2.64, K% 36.3%, BB% 10.5%, xwOBA 0.267, whiff% 35.0% | 1st inn full (79 PA): xwOBA 0.317, K% 36.7%, BB% 12.7%, whiff% 30.1%
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 115 (team avg 99)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 102 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.34, SO/G 0.91 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.74
Park: Fenway Park (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.06)
NRFI rate: Sonny Gray: 61% (18 starts) | Dylan Cease: 61% (18 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game YRFI (-0.4) | Venue streak: 27-game YRFI (-0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.265 vs SP's top pitch) | Boston Red Sox struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.289 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +9.1%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -0.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+102) edge -0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +102

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Casey Mize: xFIP 3.69, K% 25.9%, BB% 5.9%, xwOBA 0.276, whiff% 29.1% | 1st inn full (54 PA): xwOBA 0.236, K% 27.8%, BB% 7.4%, whiff% 29.5%
Michael Wacha: xFIP 4.33, K% 20.8%, BB% 7.1%, xwOBA 0.315, whiff% 21.6% | 1st inn full (80 PA): xwOBA 0.296, K% 23.8%, BB% 7.5%, whiff% 17.7%
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 117 (team avg 99)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 107 (team avg 99)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.47, SO/G 0.88 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.35, SO/G 1.00
Park: Comerica Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.96)
NRFI rate: Casey Mize: 100% (15 starts) | Michael Wacha: 85% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 55-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 33-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.255 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -130 | implied 56.5% | model edge +9.7%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +102 | implied 49.5% | model edge -0.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+106) edge -8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +106

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Nathan Eovaldi: xFIP 3.32, K% 27.8%, BB% 5.8%, xwOBA 0.310, whiff% 30.8% | 1st inn full (81 PA): xwOBA 0.345, K% 29.6%, BB% 4.9%, whiff% 31.0%
Bryan Woo: xFIP 3.71, K% 24.4%, BB% 4.9%, xwOBA 0.289, whiff% 24.9% | 1st inn full (77 PA): xwOBA 0.273, K% 29.9%, BB% 5.2%, whiff% 27.7%
Texas Rangers pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 108 (team avg 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 106 (team avg 95)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.32, SO/G 0.86 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.33, SO/G 0.83
Park: Globe Life Field (hitter-friendly, run factor 1.07)
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
NRFI rate: Nathan Eovaldi: 63% (19 starts) | Bryan Woo: 90% (19 starts)
All-game streak: 37-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 17-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners struggles vs Curveball (xwOBA 0.288 vs SP's top pitch) | Texas Rangers struggles vs Sweeper (xwOBA 0.282 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -136 | implied 57.6% | model edge +16.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +106 | implied 48.5% | model edge -8.1%

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge -14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings +122

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Paul Skenes: xFIP 3.15, K% 28.7%, BB% 5.6%, xwOBA 0.259, whiff% 27.4% | 1st inn full (86 PA): xwOBA 0.287, K% 36.0%, BB% 8.1%, whiff% 30.1%
Shota Imanaga: xFIP 3.94, K% 22.9%, BB% 6.0%, xwOBA 0.300, whiff% 28.1% | 1st inn full (82 PA): xwOBA 0.255, K% 34.2%, BB% 7.3%, whiff% 36.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 112 (team avg 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup proxy: top-3 wRC+ 116 (team avg 104)
Top-order discipline/contact favors YRFI: proxy top-3 BB/G 0.41, SO/G 0.92 | proxy top-3 BB/G 0.53, SO/G 1.19
Park: PNC Park (pitcher-friendly, run factor 0.97)
NRFI rate: Paul Skenes: 71% (21 starts) | Shota Imanaga: 75% (20 starts)
All-game streak: 52-game NRFI (+0.4) | Venue streak: 25-game NRFI (+0.2)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs struggles vs Changeup (xwOBA 0.263 vs SP's top pitch)
NRFI FANDUEL odds -156 | implied 60.9% | model edge +23.9%
YRFI FANDUEL odds +122 | implied 45.0% | model edge -14.9%

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — New York Mets +1.5 1.5 (-124) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -124

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie New York Mets 1.5 -122 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (27)

[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: -0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+20.28/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.6% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 13.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -124 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 35% (team 95)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 108)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 69%, bullpen 31%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.34)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.34)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 22% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ Batter HR — 245 play(s) (C 245)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 97.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0104
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/96 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/48 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 95/96 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 97.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0104
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/96 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 95/96 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.278 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .472
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/97 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/50 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 47/47 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 97/97 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yohendrick Pinango Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 11.4% / Under 88.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Velazquez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [OUT] Michael Massey -- Injured 60-Day

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Outman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Logan O'Hoppe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jasson Domínguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Huff Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lucas Spence Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0396
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .820
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/101 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 97/101 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0421
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.279 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/95 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 91/95 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0412
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/97 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/44 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 93/97 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marco Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.400 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/95 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/95 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0638
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.287 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/94 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 88/94 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.462 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .650
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/99 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/51 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/99 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0577
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.204 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/104 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 98/104 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0680
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.255 (59 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0707
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.224 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/99 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/99 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.383 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 1 | K% 26.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .672
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0700
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/51 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0779
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.416 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 71/77 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 71/77 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (32 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 84/91 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 39/42 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/91 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.364 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/101 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 93/101 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0778
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 84/90 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 84/90 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0777
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.464 (29 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/97 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 89/97 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0825
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.381 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .929 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/103 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 95/103 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0990
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.294 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0854
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.492 (14 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/82 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 75/82 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.249 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Jung Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0978
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.295 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .388
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.376 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0860
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.273 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .321
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/93 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/93 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.249 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/95 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 86/95 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1020
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .909
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/98 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 88/98 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0900
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.244 (10 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/85 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/40 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 75/85 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.449 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/94 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 85/94 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1100
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.410 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/100 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 90/100 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1010
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/99 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 89/99 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1011
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.689 (23 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 40/44 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.329 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/90 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 81/90 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1146
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.331 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 39 PA | 5/36 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.6% | OPS .374
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 39 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1031
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.663 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 9 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.181
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/97 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/97 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-750) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1089
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 21 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS 1.076
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1078
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.434 (56 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/102 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/102 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1042
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.355 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 36.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .368
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/96 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 86/96 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1078
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.298 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.325 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/95 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 82/95 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 26 PA | 4/24 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .564
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 73/82 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 73/82 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Manzardo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1170
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.329 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/94 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 84/94 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1165
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.413 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/103 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/103 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1348
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.151 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 11 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .091
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/89 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 77/89 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1370
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.207 (40 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/26 | HR 1 | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | OPS .810
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 63/73 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 23/28 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.460 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.313 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/97 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 83/97 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/88 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 78/88 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.131 (10 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 35 PA | 14/33 | HR 1 | K% 11.4% | BB% 2.9% | OPS 1.093
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 35 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/97 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 83/97 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.639 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.639 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.217 (54 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-600) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1325
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/83 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 73/83 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.176 (42 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.243 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (63 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 0 | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | OPS .461
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.460 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/80 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/39 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 69/80 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.473 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.225
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Soler Under 0.5 (-750) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1375
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.401 (24 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.6% | BB% 15.8% | OPS .768
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 19 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 69/80 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 69/80 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1616
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 12 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .972
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.327 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 13 PA | 4/13 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .923
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/99 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/99 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.549 (38 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.381 (15 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/96 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 83/96 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1650
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.247 (67 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1650
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1471
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.513 (45 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/102 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/102 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1522
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.233 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/92 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 79/92 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.236 (76 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 22 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 31.8% | BB% 22.7% | OPS .830
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 22 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/99 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 81/99 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.289 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.364 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 63, HR vulnerability 37 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1519
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/79 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 70/79 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1553
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (51 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1546
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.286 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 17 PA | 2/17 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .235
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 17 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1616
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.299 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1456
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.698 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1649
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/97 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 82/97 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Steer Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1649
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (45 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 21 PA | 4/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .793
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/97 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 83/97 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.515 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nathan Eovaldi contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nathan Eovaldi: 24 PA | 9/24 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .917
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 24 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/93 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 79/93 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan O'Hearn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1798
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/89 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 76/89 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1954
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.509 (21 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 16 PA | 4/15 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .779
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 16 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/87 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 70/87 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1845
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 20 PA | 4/19 | HR 1 | K% 15.0% | BB% 5.0% | OPS .671
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 20 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 85/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-500) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/99 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 82/99 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2136
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.259 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/103 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 83/103 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.203 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/101 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 83/101 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (60 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/50 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/95 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/95 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1837
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.498 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2188
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.261 (21 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/96 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/96 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2188
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.261 (21 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/96 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 78/96 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1959
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.466 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/97 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/97 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2079
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.380 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-450) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (45 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/95 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 73/95 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2019
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/104 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/104 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2118
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.206 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 15 PA | 1/12 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/85 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 31/43 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 68/85 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2277
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.308 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/47 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2048
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.593 (22 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 26 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .612
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 26 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/83 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 67/83 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-750) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2178
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/101 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 81/101 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2039
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.446 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 84/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2316
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.267 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.607 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 21 PA | 4/18 | HR 1 | K% 38.1% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 21 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/95 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 74/95 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Curtis Mead Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1977
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/86 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 70/86 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2316
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1915
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .619
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/94 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/94 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-800) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2019
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.632 (35 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.750 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2178
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (54 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Greene contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Hunter Greene: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.339
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/101 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 79/101 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 (-700) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2211
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.759 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-500) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/80 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 29/37 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 61/80 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2474
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/97 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 74/97 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-650) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2474
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.484 (23 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/97 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 74/97 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2400
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.405 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/100 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 77/100 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2621
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/103 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 79/103 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3061
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-500) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2692
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.692 (64 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2816
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.627 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 77/103 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3300
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.241 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.167 | thin sample
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 72/100 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3301
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.733 (46 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/103 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 74/103 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3301
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.733 (46 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/103 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 74/103 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3229
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.667 (22 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
DK books agree: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/96 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/48 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 72/96 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-108	49.6%	75.4%	+25.9%	$+45.28	9	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	-118	51.7%	70.0%	+18.3%	$+29.31	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Total	Under 10.5	-114	51.0%	67.9%	+16.9%	$+27.41	6	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

B Over 7.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Total) +25.9%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Nathan Eovaldi elite xFIP (3.32)

C Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +18.3%

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Under 10.5 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (Total) +16.9%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model total: 9.1 runs vs line 10.5
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
Mason Barnett small sample (21 IP) — stats 26% actual / 74% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	DK Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-102	47.4%	63.9%	+16.6%	$+26.59	1	Bet on DK
B	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	-148	56.1%	64.5%	+8.4%	$+8.11	2	Bet on DK
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	6:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 4.5	+114	43.9%	52.3%	+8.4%	$+11.87	2	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	-148	56.1%	64.2%	+8.1%	$+7.61	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +16.6%

[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.33
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 Total) +8.4%

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alex Hoppe (Seattle Mariners) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jose Alvarado (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Nathan Eovaldi xFIP 3.32
Bryan Woo xFIP 3.71
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 100)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Home SP: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)

C Over 4.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 Total) +8.4%

[INJ] Will Dion (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.72
Tanner Bibee xFIP 4.33
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Cleveland Guardians pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)
Away SP: Tanner Bibee (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total) +8.1%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.53
Bryce Elder xFIP 4.12
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 100)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Bryce Elder (RHP)

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

Score threshold: 7.7+ | SP 40% / K% 35% / Off 25%

No NRFI/YRFI model signals meet the score threshold today.

▼ Why no model signal? (15 games below threshold)

Game	Time (ET)	SPs	NRFI / Min	YRFI / Min	Edge	Why not
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Paul Skenes / Shota Imanaga	7.4 / 7.7	2.6 / 7.7	+23.9%	Score 7.4 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi / Bryan Woo	6.5 / 7.7	3.5 / 7.7	+16.9%	Score 6.5 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Sonny Gray / Dylan Cease	6.1 / 7.7	3.9 / 7.7	+9.1%	Score 6.1 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize / Michael Wacha	5.8 / 7.7	4.2 / 7.7	+9.7%	Score 5.8 < 7.7 threshold 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Nolan McLean / Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.7 / 7.7	4.3 / 7.7	+6.4%	Score 5.7 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 6.4% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Sean Burke / Hunter Brown	5.5 / 7.7	4.5 / 7.7	+8.0%	Score 5.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 8.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	Eury Pérez / JP Sears	5.0 / 7.7	5.0 / 7.7	+3.1%	Score 5.0 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge 3.1% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (18 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante / Hunter Greene	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-10.0%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -10.0% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (13 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Brandon Young / Bryce Elder	3.9 / 7.7	6.1 / 7.7	-4.6%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -4.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Foster Griffin / Mitch Bratt	3.9 / 7.7	6.2 / 7.7	-7.2%	Score 3.9 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -7.2% < 8% required Away SP 1st-inn data partial (12 PA < 30 full-weight; shrinkage applied) \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser / Ryan Feltner	3.6 / 7.7	6.4 / 7.7	-9.1%	Score 3.6 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -9.1% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	TBD / Ryan Weathers ⚠ Home SP	3.5 / 7.7	5.8 / 7.7	-10.7%	Score 3.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -10.7% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Robbie Ray / Ryan Johnson	3.4 / 7.7	6.6 / 7.7	-16.0%	Score 3.4 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -16.0% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	TBD / Mason Barnett ⚠ Home SP	3.3 / 7.7	6.0 / 7.7	-7.8%	Score 3.3 < 7.7 threshold \| Both SP required — one or more not found \| Edge -7.8% < 8% required Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — league avg used \| Home SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| Away SP 1st-inn split unavailable \| 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Nick Martinez / Tanner Bibee	2.5 / 7.7	7.5 / 7.7	-25.6%	Score 2.5 < 7.7 threshold \| Edge -25.6% < 8% required 2 confirmed lineup(s) unavailable; 2 pre-lineup proxy context(s) used

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 245 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=245
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+250	-	39.5%	26.3%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-	Ryan Johnson (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	38.4%	19.9%	+18.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	-	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+230	-	37.7%	28.0%	+9.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	James Wood	Washington Nationals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	37.0%	23.1%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-	Ryan Johnson (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.0%	18.4%	+17.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Bryce Elder (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.1%	23.1%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-	Ryan Johnson (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.6%	21.7%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.6%	20.8%	+13.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	-	Sean Burke (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	34.3%	28.9%	+5.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.2%	20.8%	+13.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Curtis Mead	Washington Nationals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	33.1%	18.4%	+14.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	32.8%	27.1%	+5.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.7%	21.7%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	Foster Griffin (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.6%	18.4%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	-	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.5%	18.4%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	-	Nathan Eovaldi (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.4%	18.4%	+14.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	-	Ryan Weathers (L)	theScore Bet	+230	-	32.3%	28.0%	+4.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.2%	16.7%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	-	Hunter Brown (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	31.9%	20.8%	+11.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	-	Hunter Brown (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	31.8%	11.5%	+20.3%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	100	90.9%	-999	James Wood, Curtis Mead, Corbin Carroll, CJ Abrams	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	100	89.7%	-868	Hunter Goodman, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	100	89.6%	-866	Julio Rodriguez, Cole Young, Jake Burger, Elias Diaz	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	100	88.5%	-770	-	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	100	87.5%	-700	Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Jo Adell	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 \| Wind 12 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	100	87.0%	-669	Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker, Sal Stewart, Alec Burleson	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Precip chance 43% -- delay/postponement risk \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	100	86.9%	-662	Kyle Schwarber, Ben Rice, Bryce Harper, Trent Grisham	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	100	86.2%	-627	Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	86.2%	-625	Seiya Suzuki, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	100	85.7%	-600	Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz, Chase DeLauter	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	100	85.5%	-588	Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	100	84.7%	-552	Yordan Alvarez, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Miguel Vargas	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	100	82.8%	-480	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Jac Caglianone	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	100	82.7%	-479	Eddy Alvarez, Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Dalton Rushing	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	97	81.7%	-447	Willson Contreras, Kazuma Okamoto, Wilyer Abreu, Yohendrick Pinango	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+250) HR chance 39.5% | edge +13.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.323, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.304, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 17.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.1/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/96 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0501, xFIP 4.54, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.304, xERA 3.86, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.062, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.266 (130 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.667, xwOBA 0.457 (22 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Casey Schmitt — Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (+360) HR chance 38.4% | edge +18.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.221, OPS 0.792, ISO 0.217, TB/G 1.95
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/112.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 19/95 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0610, xFIP 5.04, K% 17.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.62, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.766, ISO 0.221 (293 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.759, xwOBA 0.487 (46 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (+230) HR chance 37.7% | edge +9.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.282, OPS 0.924, ISO 0.262, TB/G 2.09
Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.510
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 26/103 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0391, xFIP 4.33, K% 19.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.49, whiff 24.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.900, K% 20.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.886, ISO 0.265 (329 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance James Wood — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (+300) HR chance 37.0% | edge +13.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.269, OPS 0.943, ISO 0.278, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 22.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 95.2/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.602
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 28/104 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0684, xFIP 6.37, K% 13.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.31, whiff 12.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.849, ISO 0.235 (165 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.692, xwOBA 0.429 (64 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Willy Adames — Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (+400) HR chance 36.0% | edge +17.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.184, OPS 0.705, ISO 0.203, TB/G 1.67
Statcast: barrel 9.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.1/108.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.397
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 17/98 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0610, xFIP 5.04, K% 17.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.62, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.748, ISO 0.217 (307 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.498, xwOBA 0.330 (39 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (+300) HR chance 35.1% | edge +12.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.810, ISO 0.214, TB/G 1.73
Statcast: barrel 12.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.8/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.504
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/104 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0365, xFIP 4.12, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.304, xERA 3.86, whiff 21.6%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.905, K% 13.3% (15 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.240 (322 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Rafael Devers — Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (+320) HR chance 34.6% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.204, OPS 0.791, ISO 0.232, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 11.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/112.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 19/103 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0610, xFIP 5.04, K% 17.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.62, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.893, ISO 0.284 (297 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.446, xwOBA 0.282 (33 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (+340) HR chance 34.6% | edge +13.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.192, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.461
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 18/94 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0499, xFIP 4.83, K% 17.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.86, whiff 24.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.619, K% 22.2% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.228 (279 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	+750	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+600	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+1100	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+650	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Vinnie Pasquantino	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+475	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Caleb Durbin	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+700	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Chase Meidroth	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	+900	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Daulton Varsho	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+600	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	Sonny Gray	Dylan Cease	0.95	18.3%	49.3%	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	Nolan McLean	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.93	17.3%	47.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	Casey Mize	Michael Wacha	0.91	17.2%	47.6%	—	—
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	Sean Burke	Hunter Brown	1.00	15.3%	44.1%	—	—
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Brandon Young	Bryce Elder	1.00	14.5%	42.6%	—	—
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Nick Martinez	Tanner Bibee	0.94	14.3%	42.1%	—	—
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Paul Skenes	Shota Imanaga	0.96	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	Eury Pérez	JP Sears	0.88	13.8%	41.1%	—	—
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	None	Ryan Weathers	1.10	13.1%	39.8%	—	—
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	Andre Pallante	Hunter Greene	0.93	13.0%	39.5%	—	—
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Robbie Ray	Ryan Johnson	0.82	12.5%	38.5%	—	—
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	None	Mason Barnett	0.95	11.5%	36.4%	—	—
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	7:16 PM	Nathan Eovaldi	Bryan Woo	1.10	10.4%	33.8%	—	—
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Ryan Feltner	1.08	10.3%	33.8%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	Foster Griffin	Mitch Bratt	1.02	9.1%	30.9%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	72.9	78.5	74.0	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	68.3	61.2	78.0	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	64.6	63.7	69.5	5	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	59.9	58.2	68.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	59.3	68.7	52.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.2	57.7	64.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	57.1	58.8	57.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	56.4	53.0	63.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	56.3	63.3	52.0	6	Slider (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	55.4	52.1	61.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	55.2	57.7	52.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.8	64.5	46.0	4	Slider (49% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 26.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	52.9	63.4	43.5	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.7	52.7	55.0	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	51.4	47.0	59.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	51.0	48.8	55.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	50.3	43.0	55.5	5	Cutter (27% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	49.3	39.2	58.0	5	Slider (29% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	48.3	46.8	42.5	4	Sweeper (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	47.7	48.3	49.0	5	Slider (43% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	47.4	45.1	50.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	50.0	44.5	6	Cutter (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	46.0	51.0	42.5	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	42.7	47.9	39.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	38.7	44.8	34.0	5	Slider (27% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.5	49.7	24.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	37.2	33.0	42.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	27.9	18.0	32.0	6	Slider (22% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 12.6%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	L	18.7%	3.4	3.6	4.8	57	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.8%	1.4	-	4.9	24	short	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.6%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.7%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.1%	6.4	5.7	6.0	107	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.9%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	28.4%	6.1	5.5	6.0	102	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	30.0%	5.4	5.4	5.6	91	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	16.6%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.3%	4.8	4.7	4.7	80	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	R	25.9%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.1%	4.6	5.0	5.0	77	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.8%	6.1	6.3	6.2	102	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.4%	5.0	4.8	5.0	84	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	R	24.9%	6.8	6.7	6.7	114	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	28.8%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies	L	21.9%	5.3	5.1	5.2	89	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.3%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	26.0%	4.1	5.4	5.1	69	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	L	20.7%	4.7	4.9	5.2	79	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels	L	19.4%	6.2	5.5	5.6	104	deep	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	R	24.4%	5.6	5.8	6.0	94	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	14.7%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	12.7%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.8%	5.6	6.1	6.0	94	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	36.3%	6.1	5.8	6.0	102	deep	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	23.9%	6.6	5.9	6.0	111	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

18/18 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	18.5	22.0	3.5	19.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.7	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Robert Gasser	Robert Gasser Under	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	15.1	-2.4	13.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.41 <= 3 min
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	19.4	1.9	11.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.94 <= 3 min
Hunter Greene	Hunter Greene Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eury Perez	Eury Perez Under	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	18.5	18.0	-0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	18.5	19.0	0.5	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Over	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.5%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.84 <= 3 min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

198 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
James Wood	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.74	1.06	0.96	0.72	2.97 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.59	1.10	0.67	0.82	2.69 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.57	1.06	0.77	0.74	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=80,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.54	1.11	0.64	0.78	2.69 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.53	1.18	0.65	0.71	2.64 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.43	1.06	0.71	0.66	2.50 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.42	1.02	0.67	0.73	2.42 / Over	0.40	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.41	1.05	0.71	0.65	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.38	1.15	0.57	0.67	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.37	1.34	0.58	0.45	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.37	1.36	0.50	0.50	2.43 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.31	1.09	0.68	0.55	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=83,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yandy Diaz	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.30	1.36	0.47	0.47	2.43 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Alec Burleson	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.30	1.08	0.53	0.69	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.29	1.03	0.68	0.58	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.26	1.01	0.57	0.69	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.26	0.93	0.64	0.69	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.25	1.30	0.52	0.42	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan O'Hearn	Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.25	1.02	0.54	0.68	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=89,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.24	1.03	0.63	0.58	2.17 / Over	0.35	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Casey Schmitt	Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.24	1.09	0.51	0.63	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.23	0.96	0.67	0.60	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.21	0.95	0.53	0.73	2.09 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
William Contreras	Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.21	1.08	0.51	0.61	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Junior Caminero	Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.20	1.09	0.56	0.55	2.59 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	DraftKings reference lines for all games.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	DraftKings moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
DK Odds	DraftKings price for that side
Implied	DK implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does DraftKings have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what DraftKings implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Column	Meaning
Away SP / Home SP	Probable starter name (or TBD if not yet announced)
NRFI Score	Composite score out of 10. ≥7.7 = PLAY. SP quality (40%) blends xFIP + xwOBA allowed when Savant data is available; K-rate (35%); team offense (25%)

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

NRFI — NO RUN FIRST INNING

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

NRFI — No Run First Inning

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes